The big picture: new #COVID19 cases in Minnesota started rising steadily in mid-September, but really started *exploding* a week ago. Not just an artifact of testing levels, either — that’s when the positivity rate shot up, too.
But testing *is* very robust, the highest it’s ever been on a Monday in Minnesota. That explains a little bit of the case growth (or rather, old case figures were depressed by limited testing), but not all of it.
Newly reported #COVID19 hospitalizations continue to trend unceasingly upward:
New #COVID19 deaths are a messier dataset, but they’re also trending upward. 7-day average is now just under 19 deaths per day.
New #COVID19 cases are rising in every part of the state. Northwest Minnesota is by far the worst off, but it’s not alone in seeing cases rise.
New #COVID19 cases in Minnesota are rising in every region, age group and racial/ethnic group, though some are worse off than others. This is truly a statewide outbreak, not concentrated in one group or another.
Data is still incomplete from last week, but #COVID19 tests taken last Monday and Tuesday in Minnesota both came back with more than 3,000 new cases each day.

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More from @dhmontgomery

3 Nov
Uh, so…

Remember how LAST Tuesday we had a huge spike in positivity rate, driven by cases rising and tests falling?

Well, I think there’s something about Tuesdays now.

I hope you’re sitting down. Image
Again: do NOT put too much emphasis on the one-day positivity rate north of 30%. Focus on the trend. Which is still really bad. Image
This positivity spike comes from a new *record high* number of reported cases, combined with a huge dropoff in reported tests. ImageImage
Read 10 tweets
3 Nov
As of this morning, 1.85 million Minnesotans voted before Election Day. (This number will tick up a little more, as ballots arrive today, and — courts depending — over the next few days.)

283K outstanding ballots, many of whom are probably people who decided to vote in-person. Image
More than 130,000 Minnesotans voted early between yesterday morning and this morning. It looks like ~70,000 of those might have been early-in-person (judging by the number of requests) and ~55-60K were mail ballots arriving. Image
Overall, Minnesota’s 1.85M early votes is about 62% of 2016 turnout, and about 45% of the total eligible elctorate. Image
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
1.72 million Minnesotans have already voted in the 2020 presiential election. There are about 340,000 absentee ballots out that have not been returned yet; some may still be in transit, while many of the rest might be people who are planning on voting in-person.
Here’s the rate of early voting in Minnesota over time. Even if a big final rush happens in the next 24 hours, we’ll almost certainly fall short of 2 million early votes (and definitely won’t, unlike some other states with lower historic turnout, surpass 2016 total votes).
Here’s that same chart, early voting over time in Minnesota, as a percent of 2016 turnout:
Read 5 tweets
1 Nov
Over the past week, Minnesota has averaged more than 2,400 new #COVID19 cases per day. The average positivity rate is up to 9.9%. ImageImage
No sign in sight of the outbreak slackening in hard-hit northwestern Minnesota: Image
Another 18 #COVID19 deaths reported today; that’s average for the past week. Image
Read 4 tweets
29 Oct
Buckle up, this is a bad news day for #COVID19 in Minnesota.

To start, a new record number of newly reported cases — 2,872, smashing the old record of 2,297 from two weeks ago.

MN is now *averaging* 2,000 cases per day.
Meanwhile MN also reported more than 30 #COVID19 deaths today for the second time this month, as the weekly average moves up.

Keep in in mind these are deaths deriving from cases a couple weeks ago. Case loads are higher now.
Now, some of today’s record number of cases is due to testing jumping back up to 30,000 after a few lower days.

But MN was already reporting 2,000+ cases/day with LOW testing. The outbreak is real. MN’s 7-day positivity rate is up to 8.7%. Cases are growing faster than tests.
Read 11 tweets
29 Oct
My latest for @MPRnews is a look at Minnesota’s political geography — where the votes are for Democrats and Republicans here, and how this is changing in ways that will determine whether Biden or Trump wins.

Lots of charts! mprnews.org/story/2020/10/…
@MPRnews So Greater Minnesota has been a stronghold for Republicans for a long time, reliably giving a net margin of tens of thousands of voters.

In 2016, Donald Trump blew all past Republican performers there out of the water. SIX TIMES Romney’s margin there: mprnews.org/story/2020/10/…
@MPRnews But even with this unprecedented performance in rural Minnesota, getting more net votes there than any top-of-the-ticket Republican this century, Trump fell just short… because DFL turnout in Hennepin & Ramsey ALSO exploded in 2016: mprnews.org/story/2020/10/…
Read 9 tweets

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