As of this morning, 1.85 million Minnesotans voted before Election Day. (This number will tick up a little more, as ballots arrive today, and — courts depending — over the next few days.)
283K outstanding ballots, many of whom are probably people who decided to vote in-person.
More than 130,000 Minnesotans voted early between yesterday morning and this morning. It looks like ~70,000 of those might have been early-in-person (judging by the number of requests) and ~55-60K were mail ballots arriving.
Overall, Minnesota’s 1.85M early votes is about 62% of 2016 turnout, and about 45% of the total eligible elctorate.
Republicans appear to have closed a little bit of the early voting gap, but there’s still a clear negative relationship between the early vote rate and Trump’s 2016 vote share in Minnesota.
Hennepin County, the state’s biggest DFL vote engine, is at 76% of 2016 votes.
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Another record number of newly reported #COVID19 cases in Minnesota today — just under 4,000. The 7-day average is now 3,235 new cases/day, also a record.
SOME of this record increase is due to testing volume and when cases happen to be reported — the positivity rate declined day-over-day, and cases by sample date are peaking a little lower, at about 3,500. But the increase *is* real, even if testing explains a little of it.
#COVID19 ICU admissions hit a record high today in Minnesota, both for single days and for the 7-day trend:
1/ My latest for @MPRnews looks at the power & the limits of the DFL’s electoral dominance in the Twin Cities. First, the power: Biden’s landslide in Hennepin Cty ALONE was bigger than all Trump’s counties COMBINED. It’s no wonder Ds have a winning streak. mprnews.org/story/2020/11/…
@MPRnews 2/ But while no Republican has won a statewide race in MN since 2006, largely because of the mass of DFL votes out of Hennepin and Ramsey, this power has limits. Against the DFL winning streak in STATEWIDE elections, #mnleg control keeps flipping. mprnews.org/story/2020/11/…
@MPRnews 3/ In 2020, Biden is winning Minnesota by about 7 points. But at the present, it looks like the DFL is going to LOSE the #mnleg Senate. This could change as votes trickle in, but if the DFL wins it it’ll be NARROWLY, amid a giant Biden win. mprnews.org/story/2020/11/…
So the election’s not yet over — and neither is #COVID19. The latest stats in MN show the outbreak continuing to expand, including a record number of positive cases: 3,844.
The 7-day average is up over 3,000 newly reported cases per day.
Yesterday I said the freakishly high, 30% positivity rate was probably a fluke. Today’s data bears that out, but that’s the only good news — the average positivity rate is 12.3%, nearly 3 times higher than a month ago.
This was another day of more than 30 newly reported #COVID19 deaths. Minnesota’s average daily COVID deaths is now over 20/day.
Here’s what I’ll be watching once results come in tonight: I’ve classified every Minnesota precinct into buckets based on its 2016 vote, and then will see what vote margins it puts up in 2020.
In 2018, as you can see, DFL strongholds held steady while GOP strongholds collapsed.
This can be helpful at the #mnleg level, too. Here’s an example from House District 44A, a DFL pickup in 2018. In 2016, most of the district’s precincts voted heavily for @Rep_SAnderson. Two years later, she lost support in all types of precincts, especially her '16 strongholds.
1.72 million Minnesotans have already voted in the 2020 presiential election. There are about 340,000 absentee ballots out that have not been returned yet; some may still be in transit, while many of the rest might be people who are planning on voting in-person.
Here’s the rate of early voting in Minnesota over time. Even if a big final rush happens in the next 24 hours, we’ll almost certainly fall short of 2 million early votes (and definitely won’t, unlike some other states with lower historic turnout, surpass 2016 total votes).
Here’s that same chart, early voting over time in Minnesota, as a percent of 2016 turnout: