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Aaron Derfel

2 Nov, 9 tweets, 4 min read

1) Quebec’s schools are at what appears to be a worrying turning point in the #pandemic, with teachers who are exhausted, and with the weather turning cold, windows can no longer stay open in classrooms to provide ventilation. In this thread, I'll examine what’s happening.

2) Since Friday, three schools have announced they're closing temporarily after #COVID19 outbreaks: a private Montreal elementary and high school (Ali Ibn Abi Talib), a second in Boisbriand (Gabrielle-Roy, with the daycare shut, too) and a third in Trois-Rivières (Cardinal-Roy).

3) On Friday, the Education Ministry declared a record 2,377 active #COVID19 cases, with 1,934 infected students and 443 staff contracting the #coronavirus. In addition, 938 classes have been shuttered. The ministry doesn’t keep track of schools that have closed.

4) Since Saturday, at least seven more schools have posted #COVID19 cases across the province, according to the comprehensive website, covidecolesquebec.org. Quebec is counting more schools affected by the #coronavirus than any other province, according to COVID Schools Canada.

5) As I pointed out on Friday, more outbreaks are now occurring in Montreal schools than in the workplace and health-care institutions combined. Although most of these clusters are under 10 #COVID19 cases each, authorities have not responded with any kind of comprehensive plan.

6) Australian epidemiologist Zoë Hyde, who has studied the impact of the #coronavirus on children extensively, recommends increasing ventilation in schools by “bringing in more fresh outdoor air” and “supplement(ing) with portable air cleaners.” Will Quebec follow that advice?

7) Meanwhile, Montreal recorded 247 more #COVID19 cases on Sunday, up from 233 Saturday, as the orange line in the chart below indicates. The city’s seven-day rolling average is 117.89 cases, stuck in a plateau that has lasted a month despite partial confinement. Wonder why.

8) At the neighborhood level, the chart below shows that two health districts are observing new cases in the 30s: Côte-des-Neiges, downtown and Parc Extension as well as Dorval, Lachine and Lasalle. Both health districts have plenty of schools with active #COVID19 cases.

9) Justifiably, authorities have gone to great lengths to protect the city’s long-term care centres, although an outbreak is now flaring up in LaSalle CHSLD. But why isn’t there a detailed plan to protect Quebec’s schools? End of thread. Stay safe everyone.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

3 Nov

1) The age group that’s reporting the most dramatic increase in #COVID19 infections in Montreal — as well as the highest absolute number in the past two weeks — includes high school students. In this thread, I will revisit the topic of the #coronavirus in the educational system.

2) In the chart below, released Monday by the Montreal public health department, you will note that the 10-to-19 age group counted 581 #COVID19 cases in the past 14 days. That’s higher than any other demographic, including the often-cited 20-to-29 age group.

3) Since Aug. 25, just before the start of the school year, the number of #COVID19 cases in the 10-to-19 age group has soared by 104.38%, by far the biggest increase of any cohort. The next demographic that recorded the second steepest increase is the 5-to-9 age group (84.46%).

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

1 Nov

1) Across Canada, some efforts are underway to improve ventilation in schools to prevent children and teens from contracting #COVID19. In Quebec, however, little is being done. In this thread, I will call upon the provincial government to do something fast.

2) I first urged authorities in Quebec to upgrade ventilation in schools in early August. On Sept.26, with most schools already open for a month, Education Minister Jean-François Roberge announced $20 million for the maintenance of existing ventilation, not upgrades.

3) That investment works out to less than $7,000 per school. Quebec, with one-tenth of Germany’s population, is investing 2.37% of what Germany is spending to upgrade the ventilation of its public buildings, including schools and universities.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

31 Oct

1) Montreal’s public health director finally acknowledged on Friday what many suspected — that it’s the schools in the city that are witnessing the biggest increase in both #COVID19 cases and outbreaks. In this thread, I will examine the implications of this in the weeks ahead.

2) Dr. Karl Weiss, one of Quebec’s leading infectious diseases expert, suggested at the end of September that the province’s second wave was triggered by the reopening of schools. Weiss told me recently he caught a lot of flak for making that remark.

3) For weeks, public health officials maintained that #COVID19 clusters in schools were merely a reflection of what was going on in the community. But on Friday, there were more outbreaks in the city’s schools (93) than in the workplace and health-care institutions combined (85).

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

30 Oct

1) Quebec Premier François Legault elaborated on Thursday about his endorsement of two tweets suggesting that Ontario might be under-reporting its #COVID19 deaths. In this thread, I will fact-check this assertion and show why it is inaccurate.

@KellyGreig

2) Legault was responding to a question by CTV Montreal reporter @KellyGreig to explain why he retweeted a couple of tweets on this issue. The first was a retweet of a comment by @EricGrenierJB, editor-in-chief of L’actualité médicale regarding one by an Ontario epidemiologist.

3) In the original tweet, epidemiologist David Fisman was alluding to a July study, titled, “An analysis of mortality in Ontario using cremation data.” Fisman tweeted there was “a LOT of excess cremations.” But Fisman did not suggest Ontario was under-reporting #COVID19 deaths.

Read 20 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

29 Oct

1) Montreal’s #COVID19 testing positivity rate has increased to 5.6% from 5.2% last week, signalling that the #pandemic's second wave is far from over in the city. A couple of boroughs are reporting rates as high as 7.6% In this thread, I will try to explain what this means.

2) By comparison, the city of Boston’s positivity rate jumped to 5.7% last week from 4.5% a week earlier, prompting authorities to close all public schools. This raises the question as to why Quebec has not imposed more restrictions on Montreal schools.

3) On Monday, Premier François Legault did require that Grade 9 students in high schools in red zones like Montreal learn online at home one out of two days a week. Legault did so as the number of active #COVID19 cases has risen steadily in schools across the province.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

28 Oct

1) Montreal on Tuesday reported mixed results in the #pandemic, with #COVID19 cases increasing, but the number of outbreaks in the workplace dropping from a week ago. In this thread, I will try to make sense of these conflicting trends during the second wave.

2) The chart below released late Tuesday afternoon by the Montreal public health department shows that 196 workers have tested positive for the #coronavirus, down by 50 from Oct. 20. What’s more, the number of #COVID19 clusters has decreased by 10 to 58.

3) The workplace category that is observing the most dramatic drop (13 fewer outbreaks) includes restaurants, bars, gyms, hotels, motels and temporary employment agencies. That stands to reason, since the government closed restos, bars and gyms on Oct. 1.

Read 10 tweets

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