Biden will win. No hedges. No caveats.
Why am I so sure, after what we through in 2016?
I laid out my case in @RealClearNews. But here are the highlights...
realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/…
Why am I so sure, after what we through in 2016?
I laid out my case in @RealClearNews. But here are the highlights...
realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/…
...As I previously showed in this thread, during the final two weeks of 2016, Trump had clear signs of strong momentum in several key states (as well as nationally)...
https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1320195278553624576
...But his year, during the same period, Trump has only gained more than 1 point on Biden in AZ, IA and MN. Nationally, there's been a mild tightening, with Biden retaining a healthy lead and 50+% vote share...
...It's easier to discount the possibility of some late-breaking, game-changing, hard-to-spot development because Trump has been significantly behind Biden *the entire time.* Biden has led wire-to-wire in RCP since tracking began in Sept. '19, never holding a lead less than 4...
...Plus, Trump has held underwater job approval ratings *his entire presidency* even when the economy was growing. Most Americans were already tired of his divisive behavior before the pandemic struck, and nothing has changed since...
...This is why I deemed it important to state the case clearly before the votes are counted. There should be no spin that late events dictated the outcome, or that Trump would have won if not for the misfortune of the initial pandemic or the 3rd Covid spike...
...If anything, the pandemic was a political *opportunity* to turn Trump's fortunes around. A responsible handling of the crisis would have put to rest concerns that swing voters held about his character and competence. But he chose to double down on division...
...Therefore, tomorrow's outcome can be seen from miles, and days, away. To deny that is a recipe for faulty post-election analysis, based on ground game tactics, ad spending, final speeches and late-breaking news...
...Republicans, in particular, should not spin themselves. Trump, and Trumpism, was a disaster from start to finish. If they have any interest in becoming a majority party, they need to bury Trumpism, reject the politics of division and get serious about governing.
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