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4 Nov, 5 tweets, 1 min read
In the CNN exit poll, 66% of voters believe climate change is a serious problem

Of those who believe climate change is a serious problem, 29% voted for Trump
More CNN exits

11% of voters did not vote in 2016

Biden won '16 non-voters 61-37
More CNN exits

White vote by education & gender

Non-college men: Trump 67 Biden 30
Non-college women: Trump 60 Biden 39
College women: Trump 50 Biden 49
College men: Biden 50 Trump 48
More CNN exits

71% of voters say racism is an important problem

28% of these voters supported Trump
CNN exits have -- unlike what many pre-election polls showed -- Biden losing seniors by 3 points.

This is still an improvement over Clinton '16, who lost seniors by 7

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More from @billscher

Bill Scher Profile picture
3 Nov
While we wait, a short thread of my Biden-related work, starting with my 9/17 piece: "Joe Biden’s Platform for 2020: Anti-Populism"

"you can see him sculpting a role for the 2020 presidential campaign that perhaps only he could get away with playing"

politico.com/magazine/story…
Just before his entry into the race, I wrote of "The Two-Biden Problem," how to square his 2 disparate narratives pushed by his friends and foes

politico.com/magazine/story…
Soon after Biden's entry, and initial poll bump, I argued the activist left was misreading the Democratic electorate, and in turn, Biden's chances

politico.com/magazine/story…
Read 8 tweets
Bill Scher Profile picture
2 Nov
Biden will win. No hedges. No caveats.

Why am I so sure, after what we through in 2016?

I laid out my case in @RealClearNews. But here are the highlights...

realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/…
...As I previously showed in this thread, during the final two weeks of 2016, Trump had clear signs of strong momentum in several key states (as well as nationally)...
...But his year, during the same period, Trump has only gained more than 1 point on Biden in AZ, IA and MN. Nationally, there's been a mild tightening, with Biden retaining a healthy lead and 50+% vote share...
Read 9 tweets
Bill Scher Profile picture
25 Oct
For those asking if the polls can be wrong and Trump can still win, like in 2016, my response is:

The 2016 polls did NOT miss the Trump surge.

In the last 2 weeks, they showed big Trump momentum in key states.

Look at these RCP charts...
Michigan, final two weeks:

Clinton +10 -> Clinton +3.6
Florida, final two weeks:

Clinton +4 -> Trump +0.4
Read 7 tweets
Bill Scher Profile picture
4 Oct
Jason Sudeikis' Biden > Woody Harrelson’s Biden > Jim Carrey’s Biden
I was going to tack on the best SNL Biden sketch of the 2020 primary but apparently NBC has yanked it off the intertubes nbc.com/saturday-night…
At least we still have the 2012 VP debate
Read 4 tweets
Bill Scher Profile picture
26 Sep
In this November 3, 2016 lecture Amy Coney Barrett, speaking more like an analyst than an advocate, said the following about the future of Roe...
"I think people phrase the abortion question, when they think about the Supreme Court, as, 'is Roe vs. Wade going to be overruled?' ...
...We've had 30-plus years of a Court that did take, on the whole, a more conservative approach to the judicial role, and ... Casey vs. Pennsylvania, left Roe largely intact .. I don't think that abortion, or the right to abortion, would change ...
Read 6 tweets
Bill Scher Profile picture
25 Sep
The MN-02 House race will be DELAYED until FEB 9 because the 38-year-old candidate from the Legal Marijuana Now Party died, that's a "major party" in MN, and the law says, "If a major party nominee dies within 79 days of Election Day" you get a special on the 2nd Tues in Feb...
...that's a law enacted in the wake of Paul Wellstone's death, which happened shortly before the 2002 election.

@StarTribune article here: startribune.com/minnesota-cong…
"Once [Rep. Angie] Craig’s term ends on Jan. 3, there will likely be a month and a half where the seat is vacant..."
Read 5 tweets

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