1/2 Here's this "expected deaths" curve overlayed with the province's cases by day, left, and the observed deaths tally, right.
The "expected" curve peaks on April 17 (when nursing home outbreaks peaked by cases).
The real curve peaks May 4.
The "expected" curve peaks on April 17 (when nursing home outbreaks peaked by cases).
The real curve peaks May 4.
https://twitter.com/EdTubb/status/1323338498552856577
2/2 You see what looks like a similar match with a peak on the downside of the "expected" curve at May 14-15 with one on the real curve around May 27.
So... ballpark: If it's predictive, this "expected deaths" number could be a look ahead by 10 to 14 days.
So... ballpark: If it's predictive, this "expected deaths" number could be a look ahead by 10 to 14 days.
Testing this:
On Oct. 1 "expected deaths" hit a 7-day avg. of 5.5 deaths a day; we passed that 15 days later (on Oct. 16.)
On Oct. 16 "expected deaths" was at a 7-day avg. of 8.0; we passed that 17 days later (today.)
That's pretty good — maybe a bit longer than the spring?
On Oct. 1 "expected deaths" hit a 7-day avg. of 5.5 deaths a day; we passed that 15 days later (on Oct. 16.)
On Oct. 16 "expected deaths" was at a 7-day avg. of 8.0; we passed that 17 days later (today.)
That's pretty good — maybe a bit longer than the spring?
And: Looking ahead, this method returns a 7-day avg. of 16 "expected deaths" as of Oct. 31.
If the method *is* predictive, that'd suggest the real number will approach that a bit over two weeks later.
So, the next test for this method is to see what we have around Nov. 14-17.
If the method *is* predictive, that'd suggest the real number will approach that a bit over two weeks later.
So, the next test for this method is to see what we have around Nov. 14-17.
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