Thread by @ChrisGiles_

What do we know about the UK second wave of Covid-19 and the effect of lockdowns?

tl:dr - cases are high, but not as bad as the first wave and the lockdown won't be as bad too

A piece with beautiful charts from @jburnmurdoch

1/

ft.com/content/446124…

Case numbers are high across the UK and again much higher when people are tested randomly than when they go for tests, but it's still nothing like the case estimates of the spring

2/

Borrowing from economics, where we also have to be careful about measurement error and out-of-date data, hospitalisations and deaths are not following the patterns of the spring.

So far, excess deaths this time are in line with recorded daily deaths, for example

3/

And there are signs that the growth of the virus has been slowing.

Note, it is still growing though, so more restrictions can be justified

4/

There's been a big debate about likely death projections.

Epidemiological models are sensitive to their assumptions - not a shock - common in economics too

That there is disagreement doesn't invalidate warnings about spread, but should make us all think about uncertainty

5/

At least the economics of lockdown 2 appears less uncertain.

Still damaging, more damaging than an earlier lockdown, but not nearly as bad as lockdown 1

Why?
some sectors not recovered
Lockdown likely to be shorter
More sectors will stay open (education, construction etc)

6/

The economic forecasts are uncertain. But this is @NIESRorg estimate of the addtional pain from lockdown 2.

Better, though to describe it as "wave 2" since it is Covid-19 that creates the need for a lockdown and it wouldn't be imposed had we not lost control of the virus

ENDS