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Tomi T Ahonen Profile picture
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3 Nov, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Many DEMs are worried about the Electoral College because of 2016. Do not be. We only need to deliver the turnout, and Trump will be defeated. But let me explain the 2020 Electoral College race. It is ONLY THESE 8 states:

AZ
FL
GA
IA
NC
OH
PA
TX

Biden ONLY needs 1 or 2 of these
So Biden ONLY needs 1 of these (or 2, if Iowa or Arizona)

Trump has to win ALL of them (or ONLY lose one of Iowa OR Arizona)

This race is not a nail-biter. Biden WILL win Pennsylvania, except Penna is NOT called tonight (they count long, into Thu-Fri). Biden has lead in AZ, FL
Understand the dynamics. Trump CANNOT LOSE any of these 8, except ONE state of Iowa OR Arizona.

So if they call North Carolina for Biden (where Biden is ahead). The race is over. Biden has won. If they call Florida for Biden (where Biden is ahead), the race is over..
We will NOT have a quick result, because of Covid, so many of the votes were cast in advance, & in many states they are not ALLOWED to count early votes before today (like Wisconsin) but in others yes (like Florida). So we'll 'know' sooner that Biden has won, before official call
But anyway, wanted to let you understand. We need only 1 of these 8 states, or 2 if it is Iowa or Arizona. Then Biden has won. This is FINAL polling average for each state

AZ +1
FL +1
GA -1
IA -2
NC =0
OH -1
PA +3
TX -1

Those are the 8 states we will be counting today

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More from @tomiahonen

Tomi T Ahonen Profile picture
3 Nov
North Carolina closing time has been extended by 45 minutes in a few districts because they had problems opening up on time. That means that the RESULTS will be reported a bit later than expected, but counting will start normally. NC will count LONG because it is a battleground
It will not matter to us monitoring the race, because NC would not announce its results inside the first hour anyway. If we're REALLY lucky, they might do so before midnight. But it is a battleground state, could easily go into wee hours Wednesday...

THAT SAID...
North Carolina is one of my top choices to decide this election. IF NC is called for Biden, the election is won by Biden. Trump HAS to win NC to remain viable. And Joe has had a tiny lead almost consistently in NC, plus they have a hotly contested Senator race there

My two other
Read 6 tweets
Tomi T Ahonen Profile picture
3 Nov
Where are the possible surprises tonight?

Youth is unreliable voter base. But youth goes 2:1 for Biden. ANY boost in youth vote improves our chances in ANY race in ANY state. The higher the total turnout is, the more that is driven by the unreliable youth vote showing up
If the TOTAL turnout is well above 150 million, most of that will be by youth, and roughly for every 3 votes cast, we net 1 more for Biden. That youth wave could boost Biden up by 1% even 2% over the 7% I expect we will get at the end of the day

ALL SIGNS say there is youth wave
Trump has been fearmongering as usual. He found lots of 'silent' voters who hadn't voted in long time (or ever) who voted for Trump in 2016. Their side HOPES they have found more. They may have some. MOST of those SHOULD have been measured by polling, but may have some 'hiding'
Read 9 tweets
Tomi T Ahonen Profile picture
3 Nov
Understanding the vote count.

Every vote matters, of course. BUT this election is decided in 8 states. The counts in OTHER states may be interesting for us, considering the final outcome, but Utah will vote for Trump, & Maryland will vote for Biden. Those votes will not guide us
Inside all states, there is roughly a 'farmers to city folks' divide. The Rural (farm) vote will go to Trump & GOP. The urban (city) vote will go to Biden & DEMs. This is true in all states

When COUNTING votes, rural votes tend to come fast, urban votes come slowly. Is PATTERN
So in any state, like Ohio or Florida, of vote counts, typically farm-side vote comes in faster than city-side votes. Thus TYPICAL pattern is that Republicans get an earlier lead (farm), then Democrats keep closing in, and perhaps, overtaking that vote, in the late count (cities)
Read 6 tweets
Tomi T Ahonen Profile picture
3 Nov
Election Day!
(pls vote, pls continue to help GOTV Get Out The Vote)

Where do we stand? This is RCP final polling (4 way). The race today ended at 7.2% lead for Biden

It is unsurmountable lead. As long as we show up, Biden wins the election. Roughly same as Obama vs McCain 2008
There has NEVER been a US Presidential election this STABLE. Never. Trump hospital, Trump taxes, the Hunter Biden story, etc. NO CHANGE.

ONLY the first debate changed this race, a little. From 6% before, to a peak of 8% for Biden. That peak passed, is 7.2% final polling today
Of course the voters cannot become complacent. But as long as we show up, this is the result. A 7.2% lead in the polling is INSURMOUNTABLE. Trump CANNOT win this election.

It means the Electoral College map will end up looking ROUGHLY like this (final RCP 'no toss-ups' map)
Read 6 tweets
Tomi T Ahonen Profile picture
2 Nov
On one thing, my dear Tweeps, do not worry one iota

Trump cannot REMAIN in office, after he loses this election. There is NO possibility of that. ALL of USA's law enforcement & military have taken oath to CONSTITUTION, they are not loyal to Trump, personally

Only his lackeys
So if you fear that somehow Trump can suddenly declare this election null and void, and somehow get to hold the White House and take the Presidency. That is silly fantasy

EVERY ONE of his personal detail Secret Service agents HATES him. They've SEEN the crimes he commits daily
The MILITARY leadership HATE Trump. They see how he's used them as personal props. How he's tried to ruin their reputations. How Trump left American MILITARY ALLIES, the Kurds to be SLAUGHTERED. They WILL not revolt against the US Constition, on behalf of a traitor Trump
Read 8 tweets
Tomi T Ahonen Profile picture
2 Nov
How Trump Could Have Won Version 2, thread 1/14

It is one day to Election day. I have feared either one, or both, of 2 scenarios that Trump could have used to win his re-election. Today the TIMING for these 2 scenarios has expired, and I can finally discuss these HORRID ideas
How Trump Could Have Won Ver 2, thread 2/14

I just posted my 'first fear', a thread of 17+ Tweets, explaining HOW Trump's very real plan to get America into a war with Iran was to play politically, who was running it, and how and when. Pls read this first
How Trump Could Have Won Ver 2, thread 3/14

I have ALSO posted an analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. And even AFTER Trump utterly messed up the response, how his Walter Reed hospitalization, was a POLITICAL GIFT that could have handed him election victory
Read 18 tweets

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