Thread by @tomiahonen

Understanding the vote count.

Every vote matters, of course. BUT this election is decided in 8 states. The counts in OTHER states may be interesting for us, considering the final outcome, but Utah will vote for Trump, & Maryland will vote for Biden. Those votes will not guide us

Inside all states, there is roughly a 'farmers to city folks' divide. The Rural (farm) vote will go to Trump & GOP. The urban (city) vote will go to Biden & DEMs. This is true in all states

When COUNTING votes, rural votes tend to come fast, urban votes come slowly. Is PATTERN

So in any state, like Ohio or Florida, of vote counts, typically farm-side vote comes in faster than city-side votes. Thus TYPICAL pattern is that Republicans get an earlier lead (farm), then Democrats keep closing in, and perhaps, overtaking that vote, in the late count (cities)

This year - because of Covid - the EARLY vote is 2/3 of the total vote. And the LOCAL RULES of how early votes are counted, will create a new change in vote counts.

Because DEMs voted early more than GOP, if state allowed early votes to be counted before today, expect DEM lead

So then there can be an artificially large DEM early lead - which then will be adjusted back to near 50/50 as total count comes in. Similarly, if state does NOT allow earlier counting, then they will not FINISH the count tonight, will go to Wednesday/Thursday or even later

So understand, there are certain PATTERNS how votes come in, and how they are counted.

I will be with you here, to explain what given numbers mean, as we count the votes tonight

Remember, 8 states decide. They all will be close. Most decided with LESS than 2% margin, either way