Thread by @tomiahonen

Where are the possible surprises tonight?

Youth is unreliable voter base. But youth goes 2:1 for Biden. ANY boost in youth vote improves our chances in ANY race in ANY state. The higher the total turnout is, the more that is driven by the unreliable youth vote showing up

If the TOTAL turnout is well above 150 million, most of that will be by youth, and roughly for every 3 votes cast, we net 1 more for Biden. That youth wave could boost Biden up by 1% even 2% over the 7% I expect we will get at the end of the day

ALL SIGNS say there is youth wave

Trump has been fearmongering as usual. He found lots of 'silent' voters who hadn't voted in long time (or ever) who voted for Trump in 2016. Their side HOPES they have found more. They may have some. MOST of those SHOULD have been measured by polling, but may have some 'hiding'

So it is possible, that some who intend to vote for Trump, have been saying in polls, they are undecided or will vote for Biden, and did this to 'hide' their own vote (this could be a typical conspiracy nutter Magahatter voter)

That could be a percent, even two, the other way

A LARGE part of the difference from 2016 to 2020 is the formerly 'disgruntled' Democratic voter, who decided they didn't like Hillary, and took a chance on Trump. THOSE voters regret their vote deeply, & have 'come home' to DEMs. BUT they are ALREADY COUNTED

BUT there is 'echo'

BUT there is an ECHO effect, when a segment of a voter base shifts from one to another. They bring their friends along. THIS will impact TODAY. Those 4% who were undecided, they will break more for Biden than Trump. Will it be 2.1 to 1.9, or 2.5 to 1.5 or 3 to 1, we win from them

The undecided were NOT COUNTED in the polling, but their numbers are small, and the GAINED votes will go to Biden but only a fraction of one percent. If we're lucky, could be 0.5%

Lastly there are the secretly unhappy Stepford wives

we know there is a HUGE gender gap, that is measured in the polling. BUT there WILL be some 'loyal Republican' housewives, who usually do as their husbands tell them to do, but some of them will hate Trump, & perhaps for first time ever, will secretly vote Biden (or third party)

These unmeasurable effects will somwhat cancel each other out, but we will have SOME gain in the end. It might be less than 1%. It could be as much as 3% (ABOVE the 7% the final polling average told us). I would feel comfortable expecting an 8 point win for Biden, we will see