I finally read the article this is based on and … it says that it's not at all clear yet how many of the excess deaths not attributed to Covid-19 are Covid deaths that were misattributed or really the result of other causes
"Deaths from circulatory diseases, Alzheimer disease and dementia, and respiratory diseases have increased in 2020 relative to past years, and it is unclear to what extent these represent misclassified COVID-19 deaths or deaths indirectly related to the pandemic"
Scott Atlas: He can read an X-ray, but apparently not a scientific-journal article
When looking at mortality by state @lymanstoneky has found that states with (1) strict lockdowns and (2) few reported Covid deaths generally didn't have excess deaths, which implies that most non-Covid excess deaths elsewhere were probably … Covid deaths
I don't dispute that people not getting medical treatment or checkups during the pandemic will result in deaths, but (1) that's going to show up in the mortality data over years not weeks and (2) you can't really blame it on lockdowns. The doctors' offices are open!
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Re today's Supreme Court decision to let the Census Bureau stop counting: the only states where it hasn't yet enumerated 99.9% or more of housing units are Louisiana (98.3%), Mississippi (99.4%) and South Dakota (99.8%) 2020census.gov/en/response-ra…
Also big shout-out to Minnesota for having the highest self-response rate
A little background: the original deadline was July 31, and in April for obvious reasons the Census Bureau announced that it was extending it to Oct. 31 census.gov/newsroom/press…
To be sure, my column did mention the possibility that the long iceberg decline was ending, with this 2018 @hels manifesto as the turning point newyorker.com/culture/kitche…
But I really wouldn't that to stand in the way of content like this
At some point after the Covid-19 pandemic fades, mortality rates will drop below normal. But there's not much sign in the data that this is happening yet bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
People keep thinking this low-mortality period has already arrived in the U.S. because of the way the CDC reports excess deaths, but the data for the past couple of months are incomplete and CDC efforts to correct for the incompleteness never quite do the trick
In fact, because of a change in methods on Sept. 9, the CDC warns that "estimates for the most recent weeks for the US overall are likely underestimated to a larger extent than in previous releases" cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr…
This year has already broken the record for the number of corporate bankruptcies of $1 billion or more, according to NYU's Edward Altman. But by some other bankruptcy measures it's not a record-breaker at all
The overall number of business bankruptcies is (as of the second quarter, at least) near a 40-year low
This isn't going to be any solace for NYC parents who just got the news that schools will be reopening even later than promised, but being stuck at home this year seems to have saved kids' lives. A new column, and a mortality-statistics filled thread 1/n bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Here are deaths by age group for the U.S. for Feb. 2-Aug. 1 and the more or less equivalent period in 2018 2/n
And since anybody familiar with CDC mortality reporting will reply, "But those July 2020 numbers aren't complete yet!" here's what the chart looks like if you stop counting on May 30. Kids 5-14 actually had a mortality decline during spring that mostly disappeared over the summer