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4 Nov, 15 tweets, 3 min read
If Biden wins Florida likely game over for Trump.
Trump just halved Biden's lead in percentage terms.

Trump up in Florida now. Look at the long bond how it popped. All you is the long bond. $ZB
Short long-dated treasuries is the most liquid pure Blue Sweep play.
Biden still up in florida. It's the Miami Dade count that increases Trump's odds of winning Florida.

Looks like Trump will win Florida.

Attention then moving to Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio.
BINGO
Trump needs Ohio or game over. Not looking good.
If Trump losses Ohio he will need GA (likely), NC (likely), PA (??) and AZ (??) AND MI or WI.

Tough.
Biden's Ohio lead narrowing. Will be like this until the end, as absentee ballots got counted first.
80% of Republicans reportedly vote in person, while 40% of Democrats reportedly vote in person. So early votes, which are mostly in-person, favor Democrats.
Impressive Trump lead in Georgia.

+17, while in 2016 he had +5.1.

Ohio looking very doable for Trump now, 2% to go.
Ohio will remain red.
Very positive early number for Trump on MI.

Starting to think Trump wins.

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More from @classicmacro

Alex Profile picture
5 Nov
$BTC 20K now doable in 2020

25K-30K in 2021, all possible. Going to see a heavy string of positive bitcoin headlines next year.
+100% in one year is not conservative

This is nothihg alike 2017. Some minor euphoria today. Can see that in funding metrics. But $BTC is now trading like a macro asset, not a retail fantasy.

Read 4 tweets
Alex Profile picture
5 Nov
This is how ridiculous the Trump situation is now.

FTX contract back up to 0.15. Looks like Biden won't be flipping GA. Odds are rich. Say Trump has 5% chance of flipping NV, 30% of stopping PA count, and 5% of winning a WI recount. That would give him 3% chance of winning. Image
The math is simple. To win Trump would need two things:

#1 Win PA
#2 Win another state; only realistic possiblities are NV & WI

Probabiity of winning = P (PA) * (P(NV) + P(WI))

Input your own probabilities to determine if Trump odds are now rich, or cheap, or fairly priced.
Had missed AZ. That would leave four paths to the presidency:

PA+NV
PA+WI
PA+AZ
AZ+WI (tie, where Trump wins)

Assume odds fairly priced => market could be pricing the following:

PA: 20%
WI: 5%
AZ: 50%
NV: 5%

20% * (5%+5%+50%) + 50% * 5% = 14.5%

Read 4 tweets
Alex Profile picture
4 Nov
Twitter censoring Trump again. Totally unacceptable. This can't continue, they should pay for it.
"Votes cannot be cast after the Polls are closed"

A mail-in vote can't be postmarked after election day.

You can disargee with his statement about stealing the election - that's an incendiary statement, you don't get to censor statement because you don't like them.
Censoring things you disagree with is not the way. If too sensitive or emotional, please kindly unfollow.
Read 4 tweets
Alex Profile picture
25 Oct
When it comes to COVID, you will notice news now focus only on the skyrocketing cases, making no mention of number of deaths or rock bottom fatality rates.

The most likely explanation for this is simple: journalists are more interested in clicks than in actually informing.
Cognitive biases play a big role

-Availability bias: helps people believe what they say often

-Confirmation bias: once you believe in something, interpret data in a way that confirms the belief

-Anchoring bias: interpret data using information acquired first as reference point
Basically, when the somewhat unintelligent learn about something and they talk about it repeatedly, they are likely to believe in that forever, even if new information eventually proves their belief wrong.
Read 4 tweets
Alex Profile picture
24 Oct
J.P.Morgan has been bullish on bitcoin for a while, which is encouraging and should help drive flows. However, their analysis remains mediocre. The underlying driver for all three stocks, gold and bitcoin moving in the same direction is not "Millennials" but negative real yields. Image
Beyond daily correlations, since Mar/2020, bitcoin has also often traded in line with stocks & gold on an intraday basis, reacting to monetary policy news in real time for example. That had *never* happened before. That is driven by asset managers & hedge funds, not Millenials. Image
Millenials have always bought bitcoin. What changed in 2020 is macro traders jumping onboard and seeing bitcoin as an inflation hedge. And by acting accordingly, turned it into one. This was IMO hands down the single most important event of 2020 👇

Read 5 tweets
Alex Profile picture
22 Oct
Nassim Taleb once said "almost all bitcoiners are total idiots. That is hyperbole. It would more accurate to say "many bitcoiners are total idiots". Many people have demonstrated S2F is nonsense that wouldn't pass an undergrad econometrics test. The author is full of sh*t.
That model will dominate the public narrative forever, even though anyone with a decent understanding of econometrics knows it is garbage.

Model was supposed to hit 35K by end of 2021. But "it's on track". It's open ended, so can always push the ball if wrong.
Why do I talk about S2F if it is such nonsense?

Because it is the second most popular narrative in crypto, it invades my feed and chats on a daily basis (people share it with me and ask me about it) and because I can't stand larpers and scammers.

Read 5 tweets

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