Thread by @TheMattBeebe

Where we stand... tl;dr: expect an ugly couple of days or longer — the outcome is far from certain. Based on the attached map and the latest projections, here is what I expect to happen: 1/

AK goes to the President, AZ, WI & NC go Biden. Trump will carry Michigan — based on % outstanding, Wayne County (Detroit) & Oakland County (Detroit suburb) will likely close the gap by another 200k, so it could be less than 10k, but he seems to still be headed toward victory. 2/

If he also pulls GA out & gets the ME-2 delegate, he’ll be sitting at 249 pending the 20 from PA, which he also looks poised to carry, but not for awhile because of their asinine accommodations for absentee ballots... 3/

...ballots which do NOT have to be clearly postmarked by the time polls closed last night or signature matched (this will be one of the areas pending litigation; SCOTUS essentially punted earlier, they may not have the luxury moving forward). 4/

That sets up the 269-269 scenario I originally predicted. Just saying... very 2020. 5/

BUT, if NC (15) falls his way (it could, but won’t likely to be known till next Thursday given their election laws) & GA (16) doesn’t, it sets Trump up to lose the EC by 1 unless something also changes in AZ or WI (both looking increasingly unlikely to end up in his column) 6/

NV (6) is a dark horse outlier, which is showing as likely Biden but with only a 10k spread with just 85% reporting; absentee votes can be counted till 10 Nov, so don’t expect that to be certain anytime soon either. 7/

Some indications that NV casino and hospitality employees (traditional D voters in urban areas) might be breaking for the President, so NV *could* be his saving grace. 8/

.@realDonaldTrump is right to be aggressively litigating it. Not just for his own prospects, but the closeness of this along with some opaque games being played by Dem election officials in certain areas demands heightened scrutiny for the country’s sake. 9/

We are very possibly at the very ugly crossroads many of us feared. If only we could trust the media and the respective campaigns to navigate this carefully... strap in folks.
10/10

Also: with likely gains in the House and Senate & a close Presidential race, Republicans have CLEARLY beaten back the predicted “blue wave”; even if the President does not prevail, a Biden-Harris admin does NOT have a mandate for their planned progressive leap leftward. #resist