Thread by @ASlavitt

My update on what I know.

I have lots of phone calls & emails & texts & will give it to you straight & with a couple of early thoughts.

Have coffee not gin & follow if interested. 1/

The presidential is confusing, but a scenario many anticipated (including both campaigns)— if not the pollsters exactly— although that verdict isn’t entirely even set. 2/

Let me start with some certainties.

1) If every vote counted equally, this would be a Biden-Harris landslide or very close.
2) Every vote isn’t counted equally & everyone knew that.
3) More people than ever voted for the other guy than you. Record turnout for both. 3/

A large disappointment is that many hoped for a significant repudiation of Trump & his indifference to human life, human suffering, his corruption, and goal of getting rid of the ACA.

No matter the final total it will be hard to make that claim. 4/

In the next few days, the vote will be added up in Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Arizona is also not universally called, but looks like Biden.

Expectations are... 5/

NC to Trump
Nevada to Biden

Of the remaining 4, Biden wins with any 2. Trump wins with any 3. 6/

All those states are counting their votes. That’s what happens in a democracy. 7/

None of those 6 states are certain but Biden is beginning to pull ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. Analysts tell me Pennsylvania and Georgia are currently looking narrowly better for Biden. 8/

It is very possible that Biden wins these states and has a nice electoral college margin.

It’s possible he wins by the narrowest of margins and of course it’s possible he loses. For that to happen, he wins AZ, NV, and one other state and Trump would win the rest. 9/

So Trump’s declaration of victory is like Trump’s declaration that the pandemic is over. His own fantasy he tries to impose on us. 10/

Yes, he will contest everything. If the courts are consistent with what they have done before, they won’t overrule state courts. That will mean the votes will be able to be fully counted according to the last rulings in each state (ie, PA has 3 days for votes to arrive.) 11/

Barrett is a wild card. She could change that pattern of the court. If so, it may or may not determine the outcome. I won’t comment further on that here, yet. 12/

One thing I’m not worried about. If he loses, he goes.

One thing I am. He doesn’t go quietly and responsibly.

And that would make a transition hard. 13/

The Democrats did not have a good night in the Senate. They netted at least 1 seat but need 3 more. Montana and Iowa stayed Republican. Maine & North Carolina appear to be. Two races in Georgia will go to a crazy run off. 14/

I am going to record a show shortly with @JessicaYellin shortly to cover 2 things: all of this and the implications. And what it means for health care, the ACA, and the pandemic. Be out this afternoon. 15/

Smarturl.it/inthebubble

I wish I could tell you we will be fine either way, that it doesn’t matter who’s president but it surely does more than ever.

We now need to be patient and let democracy play out. Resist the impulse to get baited into violence or even further name calling. 16/

A lot of people will be smarting from having lost the election. If it’s Republicans, sadly they will be getting egged on. But we’re not there yet. 17/

One thing: Biden’s lawyers and state teams are plenty ready to protect your vote. /end