COVID Update: If you want to avoid getting it spreading COVID, Mark Meadows is right. There’s not one thing you can do.

There are 6. 1/
The truth is no one thing works perfectly— including a vaccine. But a combination of things works great.

This image captures it the best well. 2/
If you want to read about the benefit of the combo effect of doing multiple things @Atul_Gawande wrote a great piece about it. (Everything he writes is great.) 3/…
The CDC identifies 6 behaviors:

-Wearing a face mask
-Washing hands
-Keeping a 6 foot distance
-Postponement of (crowded) social activities
-Avoiding crowded places
-Avoiding some/all restaurants

Today they released a report on these “big 6.” 4/…
The report only goes through June, but to my mind, contains more positive news than we hear in the media. There are some challenges as well. 5/
Let’s all start with an important reminder.

12 months ago, none of us work masks.
Connecting with your friends & family was considered good!
Physical contact we enjoyed.
Crowded places, ball games, restaurants— we loved them. 6/
So let’s go easy on each other. These aren’t illegal activities. Our whole lives we have learned this was all good stuff. And as humans, particularly in times of challenge, these are the very things that help us. 7/
So now we’re telling people differently. And we started telling people this in March with #StayHome.

And most people did. Some thought this was a 2 week sprint. Some thought this was a “flatten the curve” only. 8/
And one more thing— and I have said this is our “starter bug.” Hong Kong has had a 100 deaths but they have been here before. Given that... 9/
As of June, 47% of Americans reported doing all 6 of the big 6.

-37% of 18-29 y olds
-53% of 60+ y olds

Only 8% reported 0-1 behaviors.

-11% of 18-29 y olds
-4% of 60+ y olds

Between April & June, the younger group saw an 8 point improvement in the adoption of all 6. Seniors look relatively the same. 11/
Of the big six, compliance was in this self-reported order:

1- handwashing (89%)
2- face masks
3- 6 feet
4- avoiding crowds
5- restaurants
6- avoiding social (63%)

(Digression: Guys— let’s be honest between us. I’ve been in the Yankee Stadium restrooms. You really washing your hands?? With soap? OK 👌 ) 13/
Over time (April to June), there’s good news & bad news. Mask wearing has gone up from 78-89%).

But the other 5 have gone down between 2-7%. 14/
One thing that this might mean is that fatigue sets in easier when it comes to socializing, attending restaurants, etc.

It also might say that people feel safer when wearing a mask to do some of the things they like. 15/
Where are the cautionary notes?

People who don’t wear masks do everything differently. Many go without a single slice of Swiss cheese.

60% of 18-29 who don’t wear a mask do 0-1 of the big 6. 42% of those over 60. 16/
This suggests that when people are not just “lazy about a thing or two”, but actively “anti,” they are willing to take big risks.

And when people take risks, I care because they keep the virus alive & circulating longer. It’s self-defeating for them. It’s bad for all of us. 17/
Other warnings. This was June. It’s now October. There’s nothing in the data which shows how long people can keep these things up.

And it doesn’t take many people. Every 10% additional non-compliant people adds to 100,000 lost lives. Discussed here... 18/
This is where Trump has been very very destructive. By turning not wearing a mask into more than a bad public health decision but into the equivalent of waving a Trump flag— a symbol— he encourages the virus to circulate. 19/
His logical conclusion becomes “it’s impossible to control.”

Yes, it’s impossible to control IF you’re the kind of monster who thinks you have to be smarter than the scientists. 20/
Win or lose, Trump could continue to prove his relevance by tweeting conspiracy theories which erode that small but impactful base. 21/
Bet stepping back, we’ve gone from 0 to 1/2 the adult population in months being very safe.

If someone had said a year ago that’s what would happen, given how naive we all were about pandemics, that’s a lot of progress. 22/
I guess we can look at any of this data and be either encouraged or discouraged depending on how we want to look at it. A richer understanding of what motivate people will help. 23/
The sooner we move in the right direction, the sooner we will all be able to stop doing any of it. That’s the puzzle. /end

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Andy Slavitt @ 🏡

Andy Slavitt @ 🏡 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ASlavitt

26 Oct
COVID Upate October 26: There's a dangerous new disease I've been reading about that's a dangerous off-shoot of COVID.

Its highly seasonal and potentially lethal. It strikes the temporal lobe and is called COVID Fatigue. 1/
The way it works is you don't actually FEEL sick. There is no fever or chills. Your bones or body doesn't ache. And you don't need to be ventilated. But it lulls the unsuspecting person into a kind of whiny sense of entitlement out of boredom. 2/
You can tell when someone is coming down with COVID Fatigue because early signs are statements like: "This isn't so bad." "How long do I need to keep this up." "I want to go to the movies." And "Netflix ain't all that great."

Wait you might be worried this sounds too familiar.3/
Read 22 tweets
26 Oct
COVID. Update October 25: We already had the pandemic...but we didn’t have to have....
People who gave up on our lives...
People suppressed all dissent within the government...
Read 20 tweets
24 Oct
COVID Update October 24: I spent the day reviewing data with & from the White House team in the spread of COVID-19.

The latest rush of new cases is very concerning. There are new insights as well. Will finish posting shortly.1/
I’m not going to pull punches. It’s a shit show. Here’s the quick overview.

April: intensely local
May-June: locale-based spread
July: entire South. Every county
August: some easing
September: South better, rise if cases in heartland

That leads us til Now and Next. 2/
Now: Deeply penetrated in rural communities. Only counties w/ <1000 are spared. Heartland on fire, but just beginning. College spread story (I will come back to this as a main event). Testing leveling off. Southern states & East beginning to get concerning again. 3/
Read 22 tweets
24 Oct
COVID Update October 22: There are 41,000 people in the hospital right now with COVID.

So it’s time to talk about Thanksgiving. 1/
I say this as someone who LOVES Thanksgiving. I love my family. I love for excuses to get together. Yes I love stuffing even more. Spatchcock the bird and ... Oh, I digress! 2/
Let’s start with who comes to Thanksgiving. College kids! And older people!

Remember we’re supposed to “isolate the old people?” from Scott Atlas and the herders. 3/
Read 24 tweets
23 Oct
Those damn gold star families.
We do need to avoid the gymnasiums.
I have no money because I don’t want money.
Read 18 tweets
23 Oct
COVID Update October 22: Europe is having a second wave. How quickly can they bounce back?

Faster than a country that makes no effort: the US. 1/
Despite a lot of wishful thinking, COVID-19 has not gone away.

(Remember the “people have natural immunity” & “the virus died out”, & the “it will disappear” man?)

Sadly wishful fantasies don’t fight the virus. Scott Atlas’s strategy of ignoring the virus doesn’t work. Only we fight the virus. 3/
Read 24 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!