Thread by @ASlavitt

COVID Update: If you want to avoid getting it spreading COVID, Mark Meadows is right. There’s not one thing you can do.

There are 6. 1/

The truth is no one thing works perfectly— including a vaccine. But a combination of things works great.

This image captures it the best well. 2/

If you want to read about the benefit of the combo effect of doing multiple things @Atul_Gawande wrote a great piece about it. (Everything he writes is great.) 3/

google.com/amp/s/www.newy…

The CDC identifies 6 behaviors:

-Wearing a face mask
-Washing hands
-Keeping a 6 foot distance
-Postponement of (crowded) social activities
-Avoiding crowded places
-Avoiding some/all restaurants

Today they released a report on these “big 6.” 4/

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…

The report only goes through June, but to my mind, contains more positive news than we hear in the media. There are some challenges as well. 5/

Let’s all start with an important reminder.

12 months ago, none of us work masks.
Connecting with your friends & family was considered good!
Physical contact we enjoyed.
Crowded places, ball games, restaurants— we loved them. 6/

So let’s go easy on each other. These aren’t illegal activities. Our whole lives we have learned this was all good stuff. And as humans, particularly in times of challenge, these are the very things that help us. 7/

So now we’re telling people differently. And we started telling people this in March with #StayHome.

And most people did. Some thought this was a 2 week sprint. Some thought this was a “flatten the curve” only. 8/

And one more thing— and I have said this is our “starter bug.” Hong Kong has had a 100 deaths but they have been here before. Given that... 9/

As of June, 47% of Americans reported doing all 6 of the big 6.

-37% of 18-29 y olds
-53% of 60+ y olds

Only 8% reported 0-1 behaviors.

-11% of 18-29 y olds
-4% of 60+ y olds

10/

Between April & June, the younger group saw an 8 point improvement in the adoption of all 6. Seniors look relatively the same. 11/

Of the big six, compliance was in this self-reported order:

1- handwashing (89%)
2- face masks
3- 6 feet
4- avoiding crowds
5- restaurants
6- avoiding social (63%)

12/

(Digression: Guys— let’s be honest between us. I’ve been in the Yankee Stadium restrooms. You really washing your hands?? With soap? OK 👌 ) 13/

Over time (April to June), there’s good news & bad news. Mask wearing has gone up from 78-89%).

But the other 5 have gone down between 2-7%. 14/

One thing that this might mean is that fatigue sets in easier when it comes to socializing, attending restaurants, etc.

It also might say that people feel safer when wearing a mask to do some of the things they like. 15/

Where are the cautionary notes?

People who don’t wear masks do everything differently. Many go without a single slice of Swiss cheese.

60% of 18-29 who don’t wear a mask do 0-1 of the big 6. 42% of those over 60. 16/

This suggests that when people are not just “lazy about a thing or two”, but actively “anti,” they are willing to take big risks.

And when people take risks, I care because they keep the virus alive & circulating longer. It’s self-defeating for them. It’s bad for all of us. 17/

Other warnings. This was June. It’s now October. There’s nothing in the data which shows how long people can keep these things up.

And it doesn’t take many people. Every 10% additional non-compliant people adds to 100,000 lost lives. Discussed here... 18/

https://twitter.com/aslavitt/status/1305276870028652547

This is where Trump has been very very destructive. By turning not wearing a mask into more than a bad public health decision but into the equivalent of waving a Trump flag— a symbol— he encourages the virus to circulate. 19/

His logical conclusion becomes “it’s impossible to control.”

Yes, it’s impossible to control IF you’re the kind of monster who thinks you have to be smarter than the scientists. 20/

Win or lose, Trump could continue to prove his relevance by tweeting conspiracy theories which erode that small but impactful base. 21/

Bet stepping back, we’ve gone from 0 to 1/2 the adult population in months being very safe.

If someone had said a year ago that’s what would happen, given how naive we all were about pandemics, that’s a lot of progress. 22/

I guess we can look at any of this data and be either encouraged or discouraged depending on how we want to look at it. A richer understanding of what motivate people will help. 23/

The sooner we move in the right direction, the sooner we will all be able to stop doing any of it. That’s the puzzle. /end