@realmoney
The Pollsters Hit Below "The Mendoza Line"
* That is perhaps the only certainty today!
* "Good field, no hit"

Perhaps the only thing I would say with authority (especially during these uncertain times), is that the pollsters hit below "The Mendoza Line."
For those who aren't into baseball The Mendoza Line is an expression in baseball deriving from the name of shortstop Mario Mendoza of the Seattle Mariners - whose poor batting average is taken to define the threshold of incompetent hitting. The cutoff point is most often said
to be . 200 (Mendoza's career average was slightly better than that over his career).

Speaking of those pollsters I am reminded of what baseball scout Mike Gonzalez said of Moe " The Catcher Is A Spy" Berg... "good field, no hit." @jimcramer @tomkeene @SquawkCNBC @cnbcfastmoney

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Dougie Kass

Dougie Kass Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DougKass

5 Nov
I am done for the week on Twitter but if you get a chance go over to @realmoney and read my opener - it may not be what you expect... Enjoy the weekend

A Continuation of a Rip Your Face Market Rally and the Mother of All Short Squeezes May Lie Ahead

* The Indices may hit a new
high by year-end
* Markets may respond positively to a divided house of government and to a more central leaning Democratic Party (who apparently will control the White House)
* A changing market structure in which price momentum based products and strategies ("who buy higher
and sell lower") may accelerate the move of higher stock prices
* I am raising my S&P "fair market value" from 2800-3000 to 3000-3100
* I start the day with an uncharacteristically large net long exposure and with the lowest gross short exposure in a long time
Read 5 tweets
4 Nov
@realdonaldtrump has a political and business history of litigation in order to get out of problems or financial obligations.
Here he goes again like a child who doesnt get his way (and his goodies) - he would rather burn the candy store down.
The notion that he has tried to corrupt the Supreme Court in order to have his way is an embarrassment to this nation.
This morning he declared victory in states he had lost - continuing his saga of lies and B.S - something Chris Christie and Rick Santorum criticized him over.
But, if the voting tabulations hold up, this is likely the end of the line for Trump's political career. His minions will continue to follow him - maybe even to his own broadcasting platform (as he monetizes his Presidency while his legacy businesses falter/fail).
But slowly
Read 6 tweets
4 Nov
Early November is finally here.
I have seen alot of hate spewed about a man who is a constant winner and overachiever, and that's what the people who support him like about him.
Yes, he has been caught in some lies and maybe twisted the truth a little but he's still out there
proving his haters wrong time after time. Some people are just jealous of someone who is successful and has tons of money. Throw in a beautiful model from Europe as his wife and they hate him even more.
You and I might not have wanted him in his role but he's there now and
there is nothing you can do about it.
I know it's possibly just going to get worse over the next few days, but like him or not, Tom Brady is really turning things around in Tampa. @jimcramer @tomkeene @riskreversal @ScottWapnerCNBC @carlquintanilla @SquawkCNBC @CNBCFastMoney
Read 4 tweets
30 Oct
@realmoney
Oct 29, 2020 | 05:08 PM EDT DOUG KASS
Tech-nically Speaking, I am Encouraged in the Pivot From Growth to Value
I am emboldened on the pivot to value, after the release (and market response) to the earnings results at Twitter ($TWTR) , Apple ($AAPL) , Facebook ($FB) ,
Alphabet ($GOOGL) and Amazon ($AMZN) .

Google rallied back to +$140 (in after hours), and I have sold my position down to small-sized -- after the cumulative +$185/share rise in the regular and after hours. This has served to reduce the upside/downside from a few days ago when
I was adding and pushing the name hard in the face of antitrust concerns..

With my sale of a large position in Twitter last week, my reduction in Google (to small sized) and my continuing Amazon (large-sized) and with my shorts in Apple, Carvana (CVNA) , Square (SQ) and
Read 5 tweets
28 Oct
@realmoney Oct 28, 2020 | 09:45 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Are We Politicizing Our Markets Views?
* To thine own self be true
* Those that criticized me for my view that President Trump's actions/policies might adversely impact the markets may be politicizing their own market views today
"This above all: to thine own self be true
And it must follow, as the night the day
Thou canst not then be false to any man/Farewell, my blessing season this in thee!"
- Polonius, Hamlet

We all possess our own (absolute) political views. In recent years, the polarization of
these views have grown ever more extreme. Indeed, this Presidential election has delivered perhaps the most polarized views in American history.

In some quarters I have been roundly criticized by those who feel my stock market views have been impacted by my personal view of
Read 9 tweets
27 Oct
Coming up on @realmoney

Not All Investment Views Are Created Equal
* All market views are not equal - nearly every investment view should have a different level of conviction
* After Monday's sizeable and swift dive, my short term market outlook is now blurry
* It may not be the time to be 'balls to the walls' (in either long or short direction)
* A large put position satisfies me for now
* If I was pushed for a short term view I would guess that the near term outlook is a bit more positive than negative - but not materially so
"The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity."
--William Butler Yates
I like to write that the only certainty is the lack of certainty.
But, as an old acquaintance recently said to me, today there are more possible outcomes (some of them
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!