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Tyler Dukes

4 Nov, 6 tweets, 2 min read

NC State Board of Elections has a livestreaming coming up on the post-election process in North Carolina. Tune in here: newsobserver.com/news/politics-… #ncpol

@NCSBE

Per @NCSBE Director Karen Brinson Bell, number of estimated outstanding ballot still stands at 117,000.

Board still working to gather number of provisional ballots, but under state law, report on the number of those ballots is due by noon Thursday. #NCpol

@NCSBE

Brinson Bell, of @NCSBE: "With very few exceptions will North Carolina's numbers move before the 12th or the 13th." #ncpol

Brinson Bell also said they're planning to update the number of outstanding ballots through the next few days, so that 117,000 number will likely decrease between now and Nov. 12.

Brinson Bell re: fixing problems after issues discovered with a mail-in ballot after Election Day: If a ballot has to be rejected, no new ballot can be issued.

But if deficiencies can be *cured* via an affidavit, boards can send those through Nov. 12.

More on cure vs. spoil here: s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/s…

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Tyler Dukes

@mtdukes

6 Nov

A few updates on the potential votes left to count in North Carolina, as of new data 11/6 AM.

We're now looking at a *maximum ceiling* of 171,000 potential uncounted votes.

To see how that breaks down, let's get into the math! #ncpol

Outstanding mail-in ballot requests now down to ~98,000. As expected, it's ticked down over the last few days as ballots arrive. But:
- Many ballots may never be returned/returned on time
- This doesn't account for voters who changed their minds and voted on Election Day.

County Election Boards have so far received ~32,000 accepted mail-in ballots since Election Day. But those ballots have not yet been included in the state's unofficial results. er.ncsbe.gov/?election_dt=1…

They need to be approved by county boards in open meetings first.

Read 9 tweets

Tyler Dukes

@mtdukes

5 Nov

Spent today doing a deep dive on the number of potential ballots left to count in North Carolina.

All told, that number comes out to about 172,000. Here's how we got there...
newsobserver.com/news/politics-… #ncpol

First up: outstanding absentee ballots. An analysis of data as of Thursday AM shows about 108,000 in the "outstanding absentee".

That number is expected to decrease over the next few days, as it did between today and yesterday, when it was at about 116,000.

This number is a measure of the outstanding requests for mail-in ballots, but has a few big caveats:
- Not all of will be returned
- Not all will be sent by Nov. 3/arrive before Nov. 12
- Number doesn't account (yet!) for the people who change their mind and vote in person

Read 13 tweets

Tyler Dukes

@mtdukes

4 Nov

For those of you wondering how national reporters are getting estimates of 200,000-300,000 outstanding mail-in ballots in North Carolina, so are we.

Actually, we're not. It's wrong.

The number to watch is about 117,000 estimated outstanding ballots, per state data.

And again, big caveats:
1) Based on ballot requests, so some won't be counted because they weren't:
a) Postmarked by 11/3
b) Received by 11/12
c) Sent at all
d.) Properly completed
2) Doesn't account for outstanding ballots where voters voted on Election Day

NOW LET'S TALK PROVISIONALS Y'ALL

Provisionals are *different* than absentee by-mail ballots. We don't know how many provisionals were cast yet in North Carolina.

Read 6 tweets

Tyler Dukes

@mtdukes

4 Nov

@AP

The @AP has called all but 5 NC legislative races based on unofficial results as of this morning (4 in the state House, 1 in the state Senate).

In all of them, the number of estimated outstanding mail-in ballots is greater than the margin.
newsobserver.com/news/politics-… #ncpol

@AP

@AP Farkas (D)-Jones (R), House 9
- Farkas leads by 814
- Estimated 863 mail-in ballots outstanding

@AP

@AP Szoka (R)-Jackson (D), House 45
- Szoka leads by 763
- Estimated 1,133 mail-in ballots outstanding

Read 7 tweets

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