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NEW (thread): North Carolina GOP recently passed new gerrymandered legislative districts. We filed an amicus brief you can read here proposing alternate nonpartisan districts for the court. These maps show the state Senate (GOP's map on left) dailykos.com/stories/2019/1… #NCpol #NCGA
These maps show the North Carolina GOP's new state House gerrymander (first map) & the two nonpartisan maps we proposed instead (our two are very similar to each other) dailykos.com/stories/2019/1… #NCpol #NCGA
Although the court barred using partisan data when drawing new maps, they didn't bar using it to assess the maps afterward, which we've done using 3 common measures of bias. New GOP remedial maps still have sizable bias. Our maps have a smaller GOP bias & are fairer #NCpol #NCGA
Read 14 tweets
📺NEWS Thread📰
#ncga #ncpol #ERA

NC may just become the 38th state to ratify the #ERA this year!

NC State Senator @EricaforUSSen20 made NC history Thursday filing a discharge petition to free ERA bill S184 from committee to force a floor vote this session! 1/

@ratifyERAorg
@EricaforUSSen20 @ratifyeraOrg @EricaforUSSen20 employed the same Discharge Petition process first used by US Rep. Martha Griffiths in 1970 to force Congress to vote on the #ERA. Introduced in 1923, the #ERA bill was ignored for 47 years! That is 'til Rep. Griffith got fed up! 2/
@EricaforUSSen20 @ratifyeraOrg US Rep. Griffiths initiated a Discharge Petition, a method lawmakers use to free a bill intentionally buried in committee. By gathering enough petition signatures, Griffiths' #ERA DP forced a floor vote and accountability on her colleagues. in 1972, Congress passed #ERA and..3/
Read 7 tweets
I've done an apples-to-apples comparison of the #NCGA remedial legislative maps to the old maps & to the simulated plans created by expert witness @jcmattingly & you know what guys?

They're not perfect, but they're a big improvement.

I'm as shocked as you are. #ncpol #fairmaps
Mattingly used a set of 17 statewide elections from 2008-2016 to evaluate the former enacted plan against his simulated plans in his report. I calculated the Dem vote share from these same elections for the new maps so I could compare them directly to the data in the report.
This is only possible because Mattingly shared the report on his blog: sites.duke.edu/quantifyingger…

I am gratuitously copying and pasting figures from this pdf and plopping dots onto the figure -- it's not fancy at all, but it gets the job done, esp since I don't have the raw data.
Read 15 tweets
Unreal. Half of North Carolina Senate Dems largely voted for the GOP's new modestly-less-gerrymandered map, likely in part because some Dems got favorable seats to protect neighboring GOP incumbents. This happened in MO, OH, & PA after 2010, now it's happening again #NCpol #NCGA
Dem NC Senate Minority Leader Dan Blue is helping Republicans with statements like this. I showed yesterday how an alternate High Point map could be less unfavorable to Dem Sen. Michael Garrett in District 27 while still following the court's order
The real message coming from North Carolina's Democratic state Senate leader is that they'd rather prefer their own seats remain safe even if it means the entire map still has gerrymandering to favor Republicans. Putting themselves before their party & voters #NCpol #NCGA
Read 9 tweets
Good evening from the North Carolina Senate, where they’re planning to vote on new maps to replace the ones rules unconstitutional earlier this month

The maps passed committee nearly unanimously but this larger vote might be more controversial; we shall see in a few #ncpol #ncga
In case you were doing something last Friday night *other* than following the redistricting process like us cool kids, here's my article from when the House passed their own maps #ncpol #ncga newsobserver.com/news/politics-…
Republican @RalphHise says the map/process "meets all the criteria the court has laid out and, quite frankly, should be a national model"

Democrat @DanBlueNC agrees: "I think it was a remarkable experience especially when you consider the current political climate" #ncpol #ncga
Read 7 tweets
Here's how the remedial plan voted out of the NC House Redistricting Committee last night looks compared to Chen's simulations. All scores are for the statewide plan.... #ncpol #ncgq #fairmaps #commoncausevlewis

Many apologies for the low-tech figures!
[thread]
Here's how compactness faires... Better than the 2017 but still way worse than all of Chen's plans for both Set 1 and Set 2.
In terms of split VTDs, the remedial plan splits 33 VTDs, which is better than the 2017 plan but still worse than all of Chen's plans in both Set 1 and Set 2.
Read 19 tweets
@NCHouseSpeaker just stated in session that today’s Redistricting Committee Meeting (which was supposed to start at 9 am) is the only opportunity for in person public comment on the final NC House maps. However, the maps have not been posted yet & no one knew this until now. 🤷‍♀️
@RepDavidRLewis states 2 minutes per Speaker & new maps are just now being distributed. As you can see, not many members of the public are here.
@CommonCauseNC @LWVofWake @LWVNCarolina @democracync
The hearing is starting and no one has signed up. #ncpol
Read 26 tweets
.@CommonCauseNC accuses Senate redistricting Committee of violating court order. Hise did kick the public and media out of the area where members were drawing maps yesterday evening- it could be seen on the live feed #ncga #ncpol
With the main live video feed- you can only hear audio from one of the computer stations, but you can’t see the computer screen at the same time as you’re hearing folks talk- just a broad large take of the room as a whole #ncga #ncpol
There are video streams of the computer screens, but no audio accompanying them at the same time. So, essentially, you have to choose between seeing or hearing when it comes to the feeds #ncga #ncpol
Read 18 tweets
Just as I'm ready to publish the demographic & electoral result calculations for their first proposal ... Well, I'll have the calculations for their newest map as soon as I get a shapefile or block equivalency file
While the GOP is devising their latest map to fix their illegal gerrymander of North Carolina's state Senate, here's my latest working draft of what I'd draw:
Although the court didn't strike down District 24 in Guilford County, here's why I think it should be slightly redrawn anyway: Doing so enables me to put the entire city of High Point in District 27, eliminating another split municipality, which is one of the court's criteria
Read 8 tweets
BREAKING: In an absolute stunner, @NCHouseGOP calls surprise vote on morning of #9/11, override @NC_Governor veto to pass budget with barely half of members present. @ABC11_WTVD @ABCPolitics @NCGOP @NCDemParty @JTHVerhovek @rickklein #ncpol #ncga
MORE: Surprise move by @NCHouseGOP & @NCHouseSpeaker brings dramatic - if not chaotic - to budget standoff with @NC_Governor & @NCDemParty who broke supermajorities in 2018 election. @ABC11_WTVD @rickklein @JTHVerhovek @ABCPolitics #ncpol #ncga
EVEN MORE: Latest @NCHouseGOP move caps remarkable week for @NCGOP, including @realDonaldTrump visit to push @jdanbishop to #NC09 win; Republicans also conceded defeat in state court on #gerrymandering & began work on new maps. @ABC11_WTVD @ABCPolitics @JTHVerhovek #ncga #ncpol
Read 21 tweets
Had a conversation this morning about how to draw NC's remedial House and Senate districts from scratch and thought I should share my thoughts here... a thread (with data). #ncpol #ncga #fairmaps #commoncausevlewis
Yesterday, GOP redistricting committee members said that they wanted to start with one of Chen's maps as a starting point because it would just be too hard for legislative staff to draw a base map from scratch. I disagree.
For starters, there is no reason to start with census blocks in order to get population deviance within the acceptable range of ideal plus or minus 5%. With that large of a range, we can work with VTD's (or "precincts" as sometimes they are called). There are a lot fewer of them.
Read 44 tweets
URGENT: anyone in North Carolina who can canvass over the weekend, please hit me up in the replies!

We have a PERFECT STORM of need for canvassers ASAP. #ncpol #nc09
Thanks to Dorian we have emergency voting hours tomorrow. It's EXTREMELY IMPORTANT to have maximum canvassing coverage during the time! For reasons I'll explain in this thread
1. NC lets you do one-stop voting (can register & vote at the same time) during early vote, but NOT on election day.

AKA for students, new move-ins, & others who aren't already registered, it's too late to vote on election day already. But they CAN do early voting.
Read 9 tweets
@rickhasen's thoughts on possible #NCGOP angle:

1). They know they will lose in the Democratic-dominated state supreme court, and there is no viable path to federal court review.

#ELB #Gerrymandering #FairMaps #NCPol 1/4
2) They would rather NOT get a holding from the state Supreme Court (this was a three-judge trial court ruling), which would have greater precedential value.
3) They hope they would have a better chance to have their “nonpartisan” map accepted by the Supreme Court if they throw in the towel (that is, they are trying to avoid a worse court-drawn map).
Read 6 tweets
So, some aspects/thoughts of the 356-page opinion (with screenshots) regarding the NC redistricting/partisan gerrymandering case that was handed down this afternoon & holding the state legislative maps unconstitutional. #ncpol

Official copy found here: nccourts.gov/assets/inline-…
First, the court (after giving a history of this case for 291 pages) gives the constitutional reasoning for striking down the state legislative maps, first basing it on NC Constitution's 'Free Elections Clause" found in the Declaration of Rights: ncleg.gov/EnactedLegisla… #ncpol
As noted, the court finds that the Free Election Clause has had very little judicial interpretation, but that "all acts" related to elections should allow for "fair and honest elections." #ncpol
Read 25 tweets
BREAKING: State court holds that North Carolina legislative maps are partisan gerrymanders in violation of state constitution. Opinion here: brennancenter.org/sites/default/… #ncpol #fairmaps
The 357-page opinion by the three-judge panel is unanimous. #ncpol #fairmaps 2/
Court's ruling gives the North Carolina General Assembly until September 18 to redraw both the state house and state senate maps for the 2020 election. #ncpol #fairmaps 3/
Read 13 tweets
BREAKING: North Carolina's GOP-gerrymandered state legislative districts have been struck down in state court for violating NC's constitution. NC's 6-1 Dem Supreme Court may uphold it & require fairer districts for 2020 that could see Dems win back power dailykos.com/stories/2019/9…
This is a major victory against Republican gerrymandering. Democratic candidates won more votes than Republicans in 2018 but fell short of majorities thanks to the unfair maps. That could change in 2020 & see Dems win total control of state govt again
Most crucially, this case was argued solely under the state constitution. Just like when Pennsylvania's Dem-majority Supreme Court struck down the GOP's congressional gerrymander in 2018, an NC state court ruling would likely be insulated from the US Supreme Court via federalism
Read 20 tweets
Today's #NC09 early voting (accepted absentee in-person/one-stop & mail-in) thread for 9/10 general election (data at dl.ncsbe.gov/index.html?pre…):

As of 9-3: 46,351 absentee ballots have been accepted.

A reminder: Labor Day saw several counties without voting.

#ncpol #ncvotes
Among #NC09's 8 counties, Mecklenburg (40%) & Union (32%) continue to lead in early votes. Voter party registration %s within each of the #NC09 eight counties and district-wide for accepted absentee (in-person & mail-in) ballots so far:

#ncpol #ncvotes
Comparing #NC09 2018’s early votes (accepted absentee one-stop/in-person & mail-in) daily cumulative totals to 2019 #s so far.

Due to Labor Day & several counties closed, the district's early voting is 47% of where it was on the same day of early voting in 2018. #ncpol #ncvotes
Read 16 tweets
Over the past several weeks, we sent reporters and photographers to some of the places in North Carolina where political lines are said to disenfranchise voters the most. Here's what they found 👇(1/10)

#ncpol #ncga
newsobserver.com/news/politics-…
Gerrymandering is the practice of drawing district boundary lines to benefit a political party or group. Politicians decide the lines. And the lines decide who gets to vote for which politicians. (2/10)
Many of the places where gerrymandering is most apparent in 2019 are also places with a history of racial strife: From Wilmington and a bloody white supremacist coup in 1898 to Greensboro and the Woolworth's sit-ins during the Civil Rights Movement. #ncpol (3/10)
Read 10 tweets
😡MD auditors found that 3% of the barcodes marked by ES&S’s Ballot Marking Devices are UNREADABLE.

Counties in OH, WI, PA, TX, WV, KY, NY, NJ, KS, TN & IN will use these BMDs in 2020. All of SC will use them. NC certified them last week. #ncpol 1/ truthdig.com/articles/is-a-…
“An apparent 3 percent discrepancy in official tabulation records—even among one part of the ballot data chain—is significant. Three percent is larger than the margin automatically triggering recounts in 19 states and the District of Columbia.” 2/
“It is also larger than margins in 23 other states that allow recounts under other circumstances. Partisans who challenge election results typically cite any inconsistency if it helps their side to win.” 3/
Read 29 tweets
As I’ve been warning. From May 2018: 2/
3/ Screenshot. I remember bc I was so excited that I got @JoyAnnReid’s attention.
Read 7 tweets
“North Carolina Allows Bar Code Voting Machines Despite Urging Of Experts Ahead Of 2020 Elections” 1/

cc: ⁦@RoyCooperNC@NCSBE
#ncpol
#BanBarcodeVoting #HandMarkedPaperBallots ibtimes.com/north-carolina…
“According to the Washington Post, nearly two dozen speakers at the meeting urged the Board to vote down these machines. The machines in question, manufactured by ... Election Systems & Software (ES&S), convert votes into barcodes, which are read and tallied by machines.” 2/
The #SAFEAct would ban these dangerous barcode systems. 3/
Read 3 tweets
BREAKING: #NCGA has approved #HB370, the anti-immigrant bill that forces sheriffs to do ICE's bidding or face removal from office.

We join 100+ groups & 80 businesses calling on @NC_Governor Cooper to veto this extreme attack on our communities. #ncpol
acluofnorthcarolina.org/en/press-relea…
@NC_Governor With his veto, @NC_Governor Cooper can stop this extreme anti-immigrant agenda and send an important message that he supports local law enforcement, due process, and the rights of all communities.

Join us in urging Gov. Cooper to veto #HB370 👇

action.aclu.org/send-message/N…
@NC_Governor Version en Español: Dile al Gobernador Cooper: #StopHB370! action.aclu.org/send-message/g…
Read 3 tweets
PRESS RELEASE: I'm officially running for Congress in #NC07 against the Chairman of House Anonymous Caucus, @RepDavidRouzer.

I am calling for a moratorium on ALL immigration to the United States - legal and illegal - for a decade.

More soon!

mailchi.mp/cf5fe282dc86/r…
@RepDavidRouzer I'll never do another scripted video, but here's a little bit about what I believe.

I'll follow it up with a more detailed thread.

#RepublicanRevolution #ncpol
@RepDavidRouzer THREAD:

First off, you can contribute to campaign at petefornc.com. My opponent (owned by Big Ag, Lobbyists, and Wall Street) has $1,000,000 on hand.

Getting grassroots candidates to Washington via small dollar, individual donations is the only way to effect change.
Read 23 tweets
A study of 1 billion votes cast between 2000 & 2014 found 31 instances of in-person voter impersonation fraud.
Meanwhile, NC GOP tried to steal a 2018 congressional election via absentee fraud using loopholes GOP legislators passed. washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2…
washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/…
Voter impersonation at the polling place is practically nonexistent. If Republicans really gave a damn about election integrity, they'd support the federal govt providing free & universal national ID cards when they talk voter ID, but they don't. Whole point is voter suppression
North Carolina Republicans literally ordered data on the types of IDs that black voters were disproportionately less likely to have & made it so only those types of IDs satisfied their voter ID law requirement #NCpol washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2…
Read 11 tweets

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