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Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
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5 Nov, 12 tweets, 4 min read
The dashboard everyone is using to get the number of outstanding ballots in PA says 763,311 mail ballots remain to be counted, but when you look at the results, it seems that in fact many of those have already been counted. So Trump's lead might be more secure than it seems.
There might still be a path for absolute chaos 😁 Image
I'm trying to check if, as I strongly suspect, the same thing is true in Butler County, but apparently they're having a little technical difficulty... I'm pretty sure there are significantly less than 763,311 outstanding ballots in PA though. Image
So unless I'm missing something, which frankly is very possible because this whole thing is a mess and I'm really not sure I understand what is going on (in fact I'm pretty sure I don't), it's probably going to be much closer than I thought in PA.
It looks like 538 made a similar point earlier, but has since then deleted this post, which suggests to me they eventually realized there was something wrong about this argument. If so, I made the same mistake as them, but I don't know what it is.
Well, I guess not, it looks like I wasn't wrong. It's going to be close.
Lmao, nobody understands a damn thing to what is happening, I can't believe this election is such a mess.
The link that is supposed to send you to PA's official election results page (electionreturns.pa.gov) actually redirects you to the state's "voter election security information" page 🙃 The incompetence on display is absolutely unbelievable.
Okay, apparently this is only the case if you're outside the US, which frankly doesn't make any fucking sense either but I've given up on trying to understand what is going on.
To be clear, Skelley deleted his tweet because someone in the replies made him doubt his reasoning, but as I explain here in the thread where it happened that person was mistaken and unintentionally misled him, he was actually right.
See this for more details. At this point I have no doubt the dashboard is just not updated correctly. Note that this means the ~488k remaining mail ballots actually include provisional ballots.
This is where we're at. Off the top of my head I'd say Biden is still favorite, but it's going to be much closer than I thought, and he might still lose the state. Anyway, I don't think we'll know tonight, it's 6:30 in the morning here so I'm going to bed.

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More from @phl43

Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
7 Nov
Je suis le premier à dire que le gouvernement est totalement incompétent et gère très mal cette crise, mais je suis tout à fait d'accord avec ce thread, il y a un gros biais rétrospectif à l'oeuvre dans les commentaires sur la reprise de l'épidémie.
Je me souviens très bien avoir remarqué ce qui à l'époque ressemblait à un tassement dans les données sur les hospitalisations fin septembre et m'être dit que ça allait peut-être se calmer. Image
D'ailleurs, je parle des données sur les hospitalisations parce qu'elles sont a priori plus fiables que celles sur les cas, mais on voyait la même chose dans les données sur les cas. Image
Read 12 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
5 Nov
This spreadsheet is based on the best estimate of the number of uncounted ballots, not PA's dashboard about absentee and mail-in ballots, which is not updated correctly. If Biden's margin among mail-in ballots remain the same, he should win the state by ~80,000 votes.
This is much closer than what people in the media, who are using PA's dashboard about absentee and mail-in ballots, have been assuming, but it still looks as though Biden should win the state.
To be clear, this projection assumes that, in each county, Biden has the same margin in the remaining mail-in ballots than he's had in the mail-in ballots that have been counted in that county so far, so it does take into account where the outstanding ballots are from.
Read 4 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
4 Nov
This should be normalized to account for demographic change in the country though. My guess is that, while Trump did overperform among minorities, the current narrative exaggerates the phenomenon and how much it mattered. The real action was likely among whites, same as in 2016.
What I mean is that "non-white" is a heterogeneous category and, in particular, it’s increasingly dominated by hispanics, among whom Republicans have always done better than among blacks.
I guess "normalize" isn't quite the right word, "adjusted to account for the change in the composition of non-whites" would have been better, but it didn't fit. In any case, while I do not doubt that Trump improved among hispanics, I doubt he did as well as Bush in 2004.
Read 6 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
3 Nov
For what it's worth, if the results of the latest NYT/Siena poll were accurate, here is what this would mean. The margin is slowly going down, but *if the polls are accurate*, he won't be able to catch up. So it really hinges on whether the polls are accurate, same as before.
What I'm saying, just to be perfectly clear, is that although many people are reading a lot into this we are pretty much at the same point we were before we knew anything about the partisan affiliation of the electorate, i. e. Trump is not going to win unless the polls are wrong.
Now, those numbers don't say *anything* about whether the polls are wrong, so my point isn't that Trump is going to lose, only that so far nothing we have learned should change your assessment of the probability. We're basically headed toward what 538's polling average shows.
Read 4 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
3 Nov
Okay, it's time to put my cards on the table, so here is my prediction. 270towin.com/maps/2grl3
Conditional on Trump winning the electoral college, which as you can see above is not what I expect to happen, here is the map I regard as most likely. 270towin.com/maps/oAn3r
As a bonus, here is another scenario I don't regard as very likely (Trump loses PA but wins AZ and MN), but which I think could happen and surprise everyone especially if the Selzer poll in IA was in fact picking up something real in the Midwest. 270towin.com/maps/Vnd1P
Read 5 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
3 Nov
C'est terrible que les mêmes gens qui nous expliquaient il y a quelques mois que les masques ne servaient à rien nous expliquent maintenant que si on est reconfiné c'est parce que les gens portent mal leur masque, alors que pendant ce temps à Wuhan voilà ce qu'ils font...
Il faut arrêter de s'imaginer que les Chinois sont des robots qui obéissent à toutes les règles au doigt et à l'oeil. L'épidémie repart partout en Europe y compris dans des endroits où la population a une réputation de civisme impeccable.
On ne peut pas demander aux gens d'arrêter de vivre pendant des mois. Toute politique qui repose sur une telle attente est stupide. La vraie différence c'est qu'en Chine quand ils découvrent 12 cas les autorités testent 9 millions de personne en 5 jours 🙃 bbc.com/news/world-asi…
Read 6 tweets

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