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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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5 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
One overlooked reason #Georgia will flip for Biden...

➡️ All the thousands of CDC workers & friends & families in Atlanta who literally hate Trump’s guts for muzzling CDC and endangering the 🌎 w/ the pandemic.

It’s both personal & professional in ATL. #COVID19 #Elections2020
2) And yes, the VOTES are there in Georgia for the flip to happen! I’ve done the math. And it’s become even closer now since.
3) I’m not exaggerating... Georgia is on the cusp... nytimes.com/live/2020/11/0…
4) headed to double runoff potentially soon!

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
5 Nov
WHAT THE HOLY F*CK?! Steve Bannon calls for the ***beheading*** of Dr Fauci and FBI Director Wray as a warning to federal workers. This video is real. Captured by @peltzmadeline.
2) ugh... seriously wtf. mediamatters.org/steve-bannon/s…
3) The video was captured from Bannon show’s YouTube. Goto YouTube to report, not to Twitter.
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
5 Nov
BREAKING: **DOUBLE RUNOFF** pending. David Perdue has fallen to at just below <50% of all votes in GA’s US senate race, w/ more blue @ossoff votes coming (Eg Augusta area). This means *another* GA senate runoff is looming, along w/ Loeffler-v-@ReverendWarnock GA special runoff. Image
2) A double runoff is good for increasing voter turnout. These two GA senate races will directly determine the control of the US senate. And it will buy more time for @donwinslow and @MeidasTouch to launch epic ads against Loeffler (especially for shady pre pandemic stock trades)
3) p.s. ATTENTION GEORGIA VOTERS! If you voted absentee check the status of your ballot NOW!

If it was REJECTED...you have until FRIDAY 11/6 to fix it. (HT @marceelias)
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
5 Nov
HOLY SHIT... if 90.7k remaining uncounted ballots in Georgia... Trump lead is currently just 31.7k. If Biden win the remaining ballots by 70-30%, we go to a ***TIE*** and recount.

(HT to @andreafeigl1 for pointing out the close math). #Election2020 #geogia
2) And no, not all blue counties at done. Clayton County is still at just 84% reporting.
3) and another blue Atlanta suburb county - Rockdale is only 89% done.
Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
5 Nov
MINKS INFECT HUMANS. We know that for certain. Danish scientist say new #SARSCoV2 mutation mostly dodges our neutralizing antibodies, which is very bad. We should not yet panic, but the “pro-alarmism” versus “it’s just the flu” anti-alarmism tug is back🧵.
nytimes.com/2020/11/04/hea…
2) What we do know is that Danish epidemiologists and virologists were worried enough to tell the Danish Prime Minister to immediately CULL 15-17 million minks across Danish 1000 mink farms and completely WIPE OUT ALL MINKS FARMS. That is not a small. That’s big executive action.
3) We also know an recent mink #SARSCoV2 outbreak in Utah led to widespread death of thousands of mink because of coronavirus outbreak. Granted Utah authorities there said the humans transmitted virus to monks, but we also know from Europe that minks transmit to humans easily.
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
5 Nov
FOLKS—Polling sucks. Amateur-“pro”-political polls as we know it—is done. Polls had said Biden led FL w/ 70% chance of winning—it became a wide Trump win.

➡️Most pollsters have no expertise in adv epidemiology & biostatistics. I would change it.🧵 #polls thehill.com/homenews/media…
2) Many epidemiologists have long worried political polling is overconfident, uncertainties underestimated, & state/local factors poorly adjusted. Now we’re seeing it play out—again.

I know someone who paid $25k for what ended up as crap n=400 poll that’s worthless.
3) Many sources of unaccounted for uncertainties in polls:

📌SAMPLING (landline vs cell vs other?)

📌RESPONSE BIAS (shy respondent)

📌TURNOUT MODEL ASSUMPTIONS (who shows up)

📌STATISTICAL WEIGHTING adds extra variance (error)

📌UNDERSAMPLING minorities for reliable weights
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
4 Nov
Folks—here is why we’ll likely win Pennsylvania when all is counted. Attorney General Shapiro is a very very popular Dem incumbent running for re-election and even he is behind by 14% at the moment. Dem strongholds not done reporting, nor tons of mail-ins. Patience. #Election2020
2) So please use the PA Attorney General race as the bellweather. The race isn’t over until PA sings. Take it from a Pennsylvanian native and an epidemiologist who has run for office there. electionreturns.pa.gov
3) Here is the listing of % absentee ballots counted in PA—only 39% overall. And of the largest (bluest) PA counties, the % counted ranges from 0% to low 40s%. No large county is over 50% counted for bluer absentee votes. PATIENCE FOLKS! PA will swing bluer soon.
Read 4 tweets

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