In 9 swing states in 2016 (WI, IA, OH, MI, PA, NC, FL, AZ, NV) Trump beat the polls on average by 2.9 points
Now the beat average in those states is 3.3; which is a marginal difference, but the average does not say the real story where it mattered most. Consider:
Now the beat average in those states is 3.3; which is a marginal difference, but the average does not say the real story where it mattered most. Consider:
In 2016, Trump beat the PA average by 2.8 but now it’s in the 0.5 range; depending on the final outcome. This change is the diff between winning/losing a state.
In 2016, he beat MI’s average by 3.9 but now only 1.6 and lost.
WI in 2016 he beat by 7.2; now it’s 6.2’ish and lost.
In 2016, he beat MI’s average by 3.9 but now only 1.6 and lost.
WI in 2016 he beat by 7.2; now it’s 6.2’ish and lost.
Trump’s 2016 win in WI was 0.7; now a loss of 0.6.
Trump fans’ hope for a Trump win was that Trump, on average, will beat polls by better margins than 2016 but among the 9 listed states the beat is almost the same, and Trump was weaker in key states and indeed lost there.
Trump fans’ hope for a Trump win was that Trump, on average, will beat polls by better margins than 2016 but among the 9 listed states the beat is almost the same, and Trump was weaker in key states and indeed lost there.
BTW, add GA since it’s coming down to the wire there and may help cost Trump the presidency.
In 2016, he beat the RCP poll average by 0.3 but now the average had him up 1 and the race is tied with an edge for Biden. So instead of a poll beat of 0.3 it’s a poll loss of 1 or more.
In 2016, he beat the RCP poll average by 0.3 but now the average had him up 1 and the race is tied with an edge for Biden. So instead of a poll beat of 0.3 it’s a poll loss of 1 or more.
When you add GA into the above swing states, you have 10 states. Trump’s average poll beat in 2016 in those states was 2.70. Now it’s 2.89; a statistically irrelevant difference and as noted above Trump’s poll besting magic was weaker this year in a few key places and he lost.
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