TEXAS (97% in): Joe Biden has more votes in 2020 than Donald Trump got there in 2016.
Biden grew Clinton's TX vote from 3.88M to 5.22M (!).
But Trump grew his TX vote from 4.69M to 5.87M.
And this is the story in battlegrounds all over the country.
Biden got far more votes than Clinton, but Trump grew his vote substantially, too, and it made the election close.
Look at Florida: Clinton got 4.5M and Biden has 5.3M; Trump has gone from 4.6M to 5.6M (with 96% in).
How did Trump grow his vote? Partially by boosting his margins a bit with non-white voters. But more importantly from the early exits he appears to have found a lot more white Americans without a college degree and gotten them to vote, which strengthened him everywhere.
That growth from 2016 to 2020 showed up in the Midwest and made Trump more competitive than polls captured.
Wisconsin's share of non-college whites grew from 47% to 55% (per exit polls).
Michigan's share of white non-college voters grew from 42% to 51% (per exit polls).
Crucially, exit polls say Biden cut into Trump's 2016 winning *margins* with non-college white voters, which as things look might have saved the election for Democrats.
In Wisconsin
Trump+28 in 2016
Trump+10 in 2020
In Michigan
Trump+31 in 2016
Trump+15 in 2020
This is all based on exit poll data available at NBCNews.com, which in 2020 include live interviews with Election Day voters and early in-person voters plus phone polls for absentee voters. Apply any discounts as you see fit. We'll get an even clearer picture in time.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
One of many ironies in the "socialism" attack: It was deployed by a president who put his name on $1,200 cash payments to Americans, bailed out farmers hurt by his trade war, tried to send $200 drug discounts to seniors and favors $400B on F-35 jets that don't shoot straight.
The other irony of "socialism" is that the two most socialist programs in the USA, Social Security and Medicare, are mega-popular and politicians who use the word as an epithet tend to take care to show support for them.
Yet another irony of the "socialism" rhetoric is that it is often lobbed by politicians whose states are net beneficiaries of federal dollars from other states they decry as too socialist.
Trump is claiming to have won states where he hasn’t been declared the winner, like Georgia, and baselessly said unnamed people are trying to “disenfranchise” his voters.
“Frankly we did win this election,” the president falsely says. Millions of votes have yet to be counted and no winner has been declared.
“We’ll be going to the U.S. Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop,” Donald Trump says.
President Trump, in Fayetteville, NC, bashes Fox News polls, suggesting they look bad for him because someone there "doesn't like me very much."
Trump talks up the idea of a “hidden” Trump voters. “Somebody said they’re the shy voters. My people are not shy.” He draws cheers in NC.
Trump is currently naming Fox News hosts he likes. "Sean," "Laura," "Tucker," "the Great Lou Dobbs," "Jeanine," "Jesse," "Hegseth." Each draws varying levels of cheer from his NC crowd.
Democrats still fear a 2016 déjà vu, which is part of what's driving the recent bursts of panic over Miami-Dade turnout, mail-in ballots for Black voters and the grim Iowa Poll last night. There will likely be more before it's all over.
Former Hillary Clinton aide @Zac_Petkanas captures the mood of Democrats in the final sprint to Election Day: "I'm ping-ponging back and forth between utter dread and cautious optimism." nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
Counting ballots does not equal trying to “steal” an election.
Counting ballots does not equal trying to “steal” an election.
Counting ballots does not equal trying to “steal” an election.
Counting ballots does not equal trying to “steal” an election.
Where did people get this idea, which is being validated by judges like Brett Kavanaugh, that it’s unacceptable not to know who won on election night? Of course people would *like* to know. Why is that more important than counting legitimate ballots?
There’s a two-and-half month lame duck period before the next president is inaugurated so there’s no continuity-of-power issue.