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5 Nov, 5 tweets, 3 min read
One crucial casualty on Tuesday was any realistic hope of passing the National Popular Vote Compact by 2024. It could've been close to passage had Dems done well in 2020, but no more with the GOP set to dominate redistricting & 2022 unlikely to be a pro-Dem midterm under Biden
Dems seem to have gotten very lucky that Trump didn't again win Electoral College despite Biden winning the popular vote by what could end up being 3% or more nationally.

The risk of an Electoral College misfire isn't going away, & it won't always favor GOP as TX etc. trend blue
I'm proud to have opposed the Electoral College & since I was a teenager, even in this 2014 essay after it had favored Dems in 3 straight elections. The Electoral College is an affront to democracy & a ticking time bomb in the event of a contested election newrepublic.com/article/120635…
This is the biggest concern & one I too share. We need Congress to nationalize & standardize federal election administration & recount laws for this purpose. That might have happened had 2020 & 2022 gone well enough to activate the compact. But now? That's many years away at best
If you want to learn more about why we still have the Electoral College & why many arguments against a national popular vote are mths, I'd respectively recommend @AlexKeyssar's "Why Do We Still Have the Electoral College" & @jessewegman's
"Let the People Pick the President"

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More from @PoliticsWolf

Stephen Wolf Profile picture
6 Nov
No exaggeration to say that Dems winning the Jan. 5 Georgia Senate runoffs is the single most important unknown shaping the next decade of U.S. politics. GOP will dominate 2020s redistricting, run SCOTUS, & block all Biden judges. A Dem Senate could curb all of those outcomes
Fundraising isn't the only thing that will help Dems win Georgia's Jan. 5 Senate runoffs. Voters who haven't yet registered may do so here, including those who are currently 17-years-old but turn 18 by Jan. 5
GOP is poised to dominate redistricting, but a Dem Senate could fight back by passing a law to ban congressional gerrymandering nationally. That would likely also require killing the filibuster & reforming SCOTUS. Possible but hard dailykos.com/stories/2020/1… Image
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
5 Nov
NEW: The 2020 elections were a disaster for a decade of redistricting, further securing GOP minority rule.

GOP is tentatively on track to draw 4-5 times as many congressional districts as Dems, while SCOTUS threatens to remove checks on GOP legislatures dailykos.com/story/2020/11/…
After 2010, the GOP drew 5 times as many congressional districts as Dems, a majority vs. Dems' 10%.

2020 is poised to be similar with the GOP drawing 4-5 out of 10 districts nationally. GOP gerrymandering WITHIN states may also become even more extreme than 2010 thanks to SCOTUS
If Dems don't pull off upsets in the expected Jan. 5 runoffs for both GA Senate seats, GOP will control Senate, blocking House Dems from banning congressional gerrymandering nationally with #HR1 & taking the threat of SCOTUS expansion off the table.

SCOTUS may soon be let loose
Read 11 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
5 Nov
Puerto Rico appears to have voted 52-48 for statehood with a large majority of votes already counted.

Unlike in past referenda, there does not appear to have been any significant boycott like 2017 or undervote compared to the governor's race like in 2012 nytimes.com/live/2020/11/0…
D.C. voted heavily for statehood in 2016. If Dems somehow pull off upsets to win both expected Georgia Senate runoffs in Jan. 5, admitting D.C. & Puerto Rico as states is key for protecting our democracy & majority rule.

The Senate has a huge bias against Dems & people of color.
4 million American citizens are disenfranchised. We owe them statehood after a majority in both has expressed that desire in referenda.

Beyond that, the Senate is U.S. democracy's #1 threat. GOP last represented more Americans than Dems in 1998! Yet they've held power since 2014
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
4 Nov
Last night was an utter catastrophe for stopping GOP gerrymandering next year. GOP is poised to draw 4-5 times as many congressional districts as Dems, likely closer to the latter number. That's similar to the GOP's 5:1 advantage after 2010. AZ, MI, PA legislatures still uncalled
With GOP's radical 6-3 Supreme Court majority, the court could strike down ballot initiatives, state supreme court rulings, & possibly even governor vetoes that block GOP gerrymanders at its most extreme.

This would cement GOP minority rule across the country. 2022 may be awful
GOP in lawsuits ongoing in many states over voting rules argue that only the literal state legislature may set federal election laws, blocking ballot initiatives & state supreme courts. Independent commissions in AZ, CA, & MI may be struck down & worse dailykos.com/story/2020/10/…
Read 14 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
4 Nov
1. We're going to call it a night soon, but here's a thread on where things stand:

Biden may still win the Electoral College, but Dems are on track to not take the Senate despite getting more votes nationally just like the last several cycles.

GOP minority rule is our reality
2. Redistricting seems nothing short of a bloodbath for Dems. Dems aren't poised to make inroads against the GOP's current large advantage, & with the GOP's 6-3 SCOTUS majority likely soon to overrule Dem state supreme courts, it may be 2010 all over again

Minority rule, again
3. Joe Biden could be elected president, but without the Senate, there's a massive risk that he becomes a failed president unable to appoint any judges or enact any progressive policies. This is because of what would likely be a minority rule GOP Senate.

Our democracy is failing
Read 6 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
3 Nov
Intentional sabotage by the Trump administration. Election mail is just a tiny fraction of the Postal Service’s day-to-day mail volume & it alone wouldn’t be cause for delays
Relatedly
Trump is sabotaging mail delivery service in an attempt to invalidate largely Dem ballots. We've seemingly avoided the worst Election Day problems, but it isn't over yet
Read 4 tweets

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