This week's Test & Trace report is out, showing cases continuing to rise last week, despite a dip in testing.
Test turnaround times continued to improve, but both testing and contact tracing are still performing far below the levels they need to reach to be effective.
Test turnaround times continued to improve, but both testing and contact tracing are still performing far below the levels they need to reach to be effective.
The government claimed big increases in lab capacity last week, but the number of tests done and people tested in England actually dipped slightly compared to the previous week.
Despite this more people tested positive, leading to another rise in positivity rates.
Despite this more people tested positive, leading to another rise in positivity rates.
In fact, the only Pillar 2 testing that went up was "Satellite" tests, which is mostly regular screening of asymptomatic care home staff and residents.
If you strip repeat tests out, the positivity rate for people tested for the first time in the community reached almost 24%!
If you strip repeat tests out, the positivity rate for people tested for the first time in the community reached almost 24%!
Once again about 2% of all Pillar 2 (community) tests didn't deliver a result to the person who took it by the time the report data was compiled.
This seems to have returned to the system's base level, after a massive spike at the end of September.
This seems to have returned to the system's base level, after a massive spike at the end of September.
Test turnaround times continue to improve, with in person tests (at walk in, drive in and mobile units) still recovering from an unexplained spike two weeks ago.
Only 26% of in person test results are delivered within 24 hours of taking the test though, which was the target.
Only 26% of in person test results are delivered within 24 hours of taking the test though, which was the target.
Turnaround times for home test kits and satellite testing are also continuing to recover after the disastrous delays seen when labs were overloaded in August and September.
Even with improved lab capacity though, they're not back to the turnaround times seen in June and July.
Even with improved lab capacity though, they're not back to the turnaround times seen in June and July.
On the contact tracing front, the number of cases referred to the service unsurprisingly went up again.
In fact, it's higher than the number of people who tested positive this week, suggesting they're still catching up on some people tested in previous weeks.
In fact, it's higher than the number of people who tested positive this week, suggesting they're still catching up on some people tested in previous weeks.
This is the first report to show the impact of call centre staff being drafted in to help the Tier 2 clinical staff who normally handle new cases.
83% of cases were reached, which is slightly up on last week when 81% were initially reached (now 83% with delayed calls included).
83% of cases were reached, which is slightly up on last week when 81% were initially reached (now 83% with delayed calls included).
The time taken to reach new cases has also improved significantly compared to last week, with the percentage of new cases reached within 24 hours of being referred to the system rising from 36% to 55%.
But all may not be what it seems...
But all may not be what it seems...
Quality also matters.
Normally new cases (including bereaved relatives and seriously ill people) are called by people with medical experience who can assess their needs.
But now some are called by untrained call centre workers.
This is not going well.
Normally new cases (including bereaved relatives and seriously ill people) are called by people with medical experience who can assess their needs.
But now some are called by untrained call centre workers.
This is not going well.
https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1321795010799587328?s=20
There's also been a big increase in the proportion of cases who filled out a form online, rather than being reached by phone. This has shot up from 25% two weeks ago to 47% now!
So more cases were reached, but the quality of service they get may have dropped.
So more cases were reached, but the quality of service they get may have dropped.
Perhaps because of these two issues, the proportion of contacts they were given without any actual contact information that would let tracers reach them went up from 20% to 24%. This is the worst figure since June.
As a result, the proportion of contacts reached hasn't improved.
As a result, the proportion of contacts reached hasn't improved.
On the up side, tracers did reach contacts faster than they did the previous week, continuing to recover from a drop in performance in late September and early October.
With just 44% of contacts reached within 24 hours though, it's still worse than at any other point since June.
With just 44% of contacts reached within 24 hours though, it's still worse than at any other point since June.
All in all it's a mixed picture.
Test turnaround times and some elements of contact tracing are slowly recovering from recent issues.
But by most measures they're still struggling to keep up with soaring cases, and more than 40% of close contacts still aren't being reached.
Test turnaround times and some elements of contact tracing are slowly recovering from recent issues.
But by most measures they're still struggling to keep up with soaring cases, and more than 40% of close contacts still aren't being reached.
And here's my analysis of last week's report, for comparison.
As you may have noticed, I've changed the summary at the top of this week's thread. Hopefully it's easier to read now and gives more relevant information, but feedback is welcome!
As you may have noticed, I've changed the summary at the top of this week's thread. Hopefully it's easier to read now and gives more relevant information, but feedback is welcome!
https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1321883847345213443?s=20
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