John Bye Profile picture
3 Nov, 7 tweets, 2 min read
A lot of covid sceptics are sharing this story today.

The first claim it makes (about a "dodgy hospital heatmap") is very obviously wrong though.

The Daily Mail is either deliberately trying to mislead people or (just as likely) doesn't understand what it's talking about.
They say 232 of 482 English hospitals had NO covid patients on October 27th.

But the vast majority of those have NEVER had covid patients, because they're private hospitals, mental health units, specialist hospitals etc, many with no general or acute care beds to put them in!
175 of the 232 hospitals without covid patients are private hospitals (including cosmetic surgeries and mental health centres).

Unsurprisingly, 170 of them haven't had a single covid patient in at least the last 3 months. Because that's not what private hospitals generally do.
Another 47 are NHS mental health or community care trusts and NHS Treatment Centres, none of which would be expected to handle covid patients either.

8 more are specialist centres like the Moorfields Eye Hospital, Royal National Orthopaedic Hospital etc.
Which just leaves one actual NHS hospital - the Yorkshire & Humber Nightingale Hospital in Leeds.

This was NEVER used for covid patients in the first wave and was repurposed as a radiology clinic.

But it's now back on standby amidst rising cases. So may have patients in future.
The raw data is available in the NHS weekly admissions report.

england.nhs.uk/statistics/sta…
Correction: the Yorkshire and Humber Nightingale Hospital is actually in Harrogate, not Leeds, even though it's run by the Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust.

Thanks @jean_pjtwood for pointing that out.

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More from @_johnbye

2 Nov
The government claims to have hit its target of expanding lab capacity to 500,000 "virus" tests a day.

As with their 100,000 tests a day target in April though, there's been a rather suspicious last minute surge to reach the target which, just a week ago, looked hopeless.
Back in April the government pulled this off by counting 40,000 tests they'd put in the post as "done", even though they hadn't been used and actually processed in a lab yet.

In fact, we now know they didn't really hit 100,000 tests a day until May 20th.

The latest surge comes almost entirely from Pillar 1 (NHS and PHE) lab capacity.

This hasn't increased AT ALL for 4 months, but now we're expected to believe it suddenly doubled in 4 days, just in time to hit an arbitrary target.

And oddly none of this capacity is being used.
Read 11 tweets
13 Oct
One of these women is a BBC journalist.

The other is the Chairman of the Conservative Party.

Spot the difference:
Tom Newton Dunn of Times Radio (and formerly the Sun) seems to have edged the field, managing to copy and paste the latest message from Dominic Cummings (sorry, Sr Guv Source) at 19:46.

Conservative Chair Amanda Milling came in second at 19:57.

Read 6 tweets
13 Oct
Yesterday's announcement of new regional restrictions to slow the spread of coronavirus went well...

First they did their usual trick of briefing the press before the MPs, councils and public health officials whose areas are affected.

Then they seem to have forgotten to invite some of the MPs representing those areas to the briefing.

Then local leaders said they hadn't actually agreed with all of the new measures.

Central government told them what the new restrictions would be, didn't show them the data behind it, and then there was an argument about financial support.

Read 5 tweets
10 Oct
Some people still seem convinced the recent surge in covid-19 cases is caused by "false positives" (people who don't have the virus but still test positive due to various issues), often claiming 90% of reported cases aren't real.

This argument doesn't hold water.

Here's why...
A lot of this goes back to a quote from Matt Hancock that the false positive rate was "under 1%".

Some assumed the rate was close to 1%, which would mean if you test 200,000 people a day who (mostly) don't have the virus, you'd get 2,000 false positives.

The first problem with this argument is the number of cases went up faster than the number of tests done.

That means the % of tests coming back positive went up.

But the % of tests giving a false positive shouldn't have changed.

So the % of true positives MUST have gone up.
Read 12 tweets
10 Oct
The Lighthouse Lab in Newport, originally promised to come online by the end of August, finally opened this week.

It's the first new Pillar 2 lab to open in FOUR months.

And the next lab that was due to open is delayed too!

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-…
As I pointed out last month, the government utterly failed to increase lab capacity over the summer, despite rising demand (much of it driven by their own policies).

Pillar 1 capacity has barely changed since July 7.
Pillar 2 capacity stalled on June 14!

As Lighthouse Labs handling Pillar 2 (community) testing hit capacity in late August, the government started paying private labs (most in the EU) to handle excess tests.

This accounted for ALL of the increase in Pillar 2 capacity over the next two weeks.

Read 9 tweets
8 Oct
This week's Test & Trace report is out, showing the impact of the 16,000 test results that were mislaid in the last week of September.

As if that wasn't bad enough, a HUGE number of tests hadn't given a result by the end of the week, and last week's backlog has been abandoned.
The number of people testing positive continues to rise sharply, but the number of cases referred to Test & Trace didn't.

There's a shortfall of 16,981 cases - far more than usual.

Only two thirds of people who tested positive that week were referred to Test & Trace!
This seems to be largely due to 16,000 cases that were missed because the old version of Excel that PHE use to import data from Pillar 2 labs ran out of rows!

The extra cases were finally referred to T&T last weekend and should be in next week's report.

Read 14 tweets

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