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5 Nov, 7 tweets, 2 min read
Trump's lead in Georgia now under 10,000 votes, mainly after mail-in ballots from Fulton.
Clayton and Chatham absentees alone ought to cover the rest of the difference
Yeah, then we get to the extraneous stuff. Overseas ballot v. provisionals v. the scattered missing stuff across the state. If the SOS is right, there's quite a bit of absentee elsewhere to pad Biden. Hard to judge the rest. It'll be in recount territory
Sadly, we're at the point where the needle is no longer very helpful. In a lot of places, the SOS says there's still absentee vote but the count is high enough that the needle isn't expecting much more. At this late stage, exact reporting prevails over the models
Basically the whole time, IMO. Nailed Florida. Nailed NC, even as folks thought Biden was doing great. Initially got the wrong impression on GA, but eventually figured out Biden was favored long before it was obvious
Well it took a long time get enough out of the Atlanta area, and the results in NC/FL had weight until then. Biden did fine in Mecklenberg/Wake, for ex, but nothing like what he's done around Atlanta.
Or put differently, if you don't know GA, but you do know FL and GA went Trump, you're probably thinking Trump's going to win Georgia too, until...
To be fair, the needle doesn't think NC is over! It closed with Trump at 86% to win. It has no idea, like anyone else, how much late mail/provisional might be left there. But I think it did an excellent job handling the vote it can know about

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More from @Nate_Cohn

Nate Cohn Profile picture
7 Nov
There was a point on Tuesday night--not sure the time, you can probably find the tweet--when the eastern Ohio counties came in and I think I would have thought very hard about calling Trump the favorite
There was some conflicting info among white northerners at that point: MN/ME/NH were fine for Biden, WI was close, and rural OH/IA were worse than 2016. IDK how I would have sorted it out if forced.
But there was no way to know that this red wasn't bleeding to PA Image
I guess by that point we did have the AZ early vote, which would have kept the non-Rust Belt path alive. But it's not like Biden was an overwhelming favorite in WI at that point either, and I do think this was well before the needle came around on Georgia
Read 11 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
7 Nov
Well it's about time: Joe Biden is the president-elect.
He's carried the state of Pennsylvania, and I can report that it is very loud here in dark blue Manhattan
The remaining vote could expand Biden's lead in Pennsylvania to well over 100,000 votes
The winning map: Biden currently has 273 electoral votes, and he leads in states worth 306 Image
Read 4 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
7 Nov
Trump wins the new Maricopa vote by 15.6 points. Still not good enough for him. Still not going to yield a projection, I don't think.
That's a little better for Trump than it was yesterday. It would put him on track to really tighten things up if it kept up, even if it wouldn't be enough to put him over the top. And Trump doing a little better makes it harder to rule out that he won't do better later
I want to be clear that I really do think that Trump is still competitive in Arizona. No, he's not 'on track'--if you play this out, Trump still falls a hair short. But the results today are awfully close to on track, and there are a lot of ballots left.
Read 6 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
7 Nov
AM update: What's still left to count, and why hasn't a winner been called?
nytimes.com/2020/11/07/ups…
In Pennsylvania, I can think of two possibilities. One is that the desks are waiting for Biden to clear the .5 point recount threshold. That's a stated AP position.
If so, Biden could be called... at really any point, as his lead is now up to .43
ap.org/en-us/topics/p…
Another possibility is the provisional ballots, which are a little murky so far if you're looking for 1000% certainty. That said, all indications are that they break Democratic: there's too much in Philly and Allegheny, and the early reporting in latter is that they're D+50
Read 6 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
6 Nov
I've gotten a few questions about the provisional ballots in Pennsylvania this afternoon. I addressed them here earlier this morning, and I don't have a lot to add.
nytimes.com/2020/11/06/ups…
Today, we did get initial provisional results in some very Republican counties. They were ~ the same as the non-provisional vote. That's not going to cut it for Trump, since a) he needs to win these ballots big to win by this means; b) Philly/dem areas have more provisionals
I don't really know exactly why the networks haven't called it (that's not say they're wrong--I can think of a number of arguments, some better than others), so I don't know what it would take to trigger a call
Read 4 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
6 Nov
It's just a matter of time.
Here's what's left to be counted, as we head into the possible/likely day of decision for Biden
nytimes.com/2020/11/06/ups…
In Pennsylvania, Biden is on track to amass a lead of around 80k votes before provisional ballots get counted. I'd think that will be enough for the networks to make a projection.
We don't know the provisionals, but eye-balling the results I'm guessing there's a lot in Philly.
There's just not much left in Georgia at this point, where we have a scattering of absentee votes and then the provisional/cured/abs/military extraneous stuff. It's really close. There won't be a call. But right now I just don't see the votes for Trump without errors or surprises
Read 7 tweets

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