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6 Nov, 4 tweets, 3 min read
In the first batch of mail votes from Clayton County GA, Biden appears to be getting the type of margin he needs to close the statewide gap once future batches report.

#Election2020 #ElectionNight

Apparently the remaining Clayton County GA mail ballots are expected to arrive "by midnight tonight", per @CNN.

#Election2020 #ElectionNight
If the remaining ~5726 Clayton County GA votes come in at the margin the first batch of votes came in (Biden +74%), Biden would net 4237 votes.

And that would put him in the lead statewide (Trump currently leads by 2497 votes).

#Election2020 #ElectionNight
There are some questions about if the 5726 Clayton Co. GA ballots include the ones in the counted first batch. Possible that CNN misspoke.

But even if 5726 is the total of all batches, Biden would be on track to net 3261.

That would be enough to take the lead.

#Election2020

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More from @ryanmatsumoto1

Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
6 Nov
So I guess the question is if they are able to keep scanning batches of 300 votes whenever they want, or if they have to wait 20 minutes each time.

#ElectionNight

Some Clayton County math:

If we have to wait 20 minutes per scan and Biden wins each 300 vote scan ~90% - 10%, he would net ~240 votes per scan, and we'd need 6 scans for him to cut Trump's 1267 vote lead down to zero.

That would be about two hours.

Say we're hoping to save 20 minutes. What would it take for Biden to overtake Trump in the span of five 300-vote scans?

1267/5 = 253.4
300/2 + 253.4/2 = 276.7
276.7/300 = 92.23%

So Biden would need to win ~92.22 to 7.33% to overtake Trump in five scans.

Read 6 tweets
Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
4 Nov
Why do I believe Biden is favored in Pennsylvania even though he's down 8 points?

Most of the counties that have reported almost ALL votes (including mail ballots) show a decent shift to the left versus Clinton's margins in those counties in 2016.

There are essentially two flavors of forecasting these states.

#1 - Looking Backwards - Look at counties with >98% expected vote reporting and compare their semi-final margins to their 2016 Trump vs. Clinton margins.

With this method, Pennsylvania looks good for Biden.
#2 - Looking Forwards - Look at counties with remaining votes. Estimate the margins of the remaining vote in each county and add up all the numbers. See who's ahead.

I think method #1 has made more sense for Pennsylvania so far since there is so much mail vote EVERYWHERE.
Read 4 tweets
Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
4 Nov
Regarding the SENATE:

I don't think David Perdue is in the clear for avoiding a runoff in Georgia.

He's at 50.8% right now. And we know Fulton/DeKalb are gonna come in strong for Democrats.

#ElectionNight #Election2020
What's the path for Democrats to take back the Senate at this point?

Either you win Maine + the Warnock v. Loeffler runoff in January.

Or you win both runoffs in January.

#ElectionNight #Election2020
If Democrats can win one Georgia Senate runoff, I don't see why they can't win the other one too.

One of the big lessons from tonight: partisanship is very strong and often overcomes candidate quality / differential.

#ElectionNight #Election2020

Read 5 tweets
Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
3 Nov
FIRST ELECTION NIGHT RESULTS come from Greene County Indiana:

Trump 68.4%
Biden 29.7%

(52% of estimated votes reporting)

In the 2016 election, Trump won this county 74% - 21%.

#ElectionNight #ElectionNight2020
MORE INDIANA RESULTS:

Sullivan County, Indiana (~40% of estimated votes reporting)

Trump 65%
Biden 33%

In the 2016 election, Trump won this county 72% - 25%.

A swing of 15% to the left from 2016.

#ElectionNight #ElectionNightResults
More Indiana Results:

Steuben County, Indiana (~51% reporting)

Trump 61%
Biden 37%

In 2016, Trump won this county 70% - 26%.

A swing of 10% to the left from 2016.

#ElectionNight #ElectionNightResults #Election2020
Read 4 tweets
Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
3 Nov
Created a basic live spreadsheet model to estimate the final margin in Florida.

Basically it compares a county's margin with its margin in the 2018 Governor race once Early/Mail/50%+ precincts report.

No guarantees, but we'll see how it goes!

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
If counties with almost all their vote in shifted ~3 points left vs. 2018, we might expect future counties to do so too.

We can then apply margin estimates to turnout estimates and add everything up.

My turnout baseline is 76% statewide (10.976M), but that might be adjusted.
I chose the 2018 gubernatorial race rather than the 2016 presidential race as the baseline comparison for Florida counties because it does seem from the polling that Trump may outperform his 2016 margins with Latinos. The midterm elections showed a similar demographic pattern.
Read 4 tweets

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