Thread by @ryanmatsumoto1

So I guess the question is if they are able to keep scanning batches of 300 votes whenever they want, or if they have to wait 20 minutes each time.

#ElectionNight

https://twitter.com/ErinKPeterson/status/1324604237083541504

Some Clayton County math:

If we have to wait 20 minutes per scan and Biden wins each 300 vote scan ~90% - 10%, he would net ~240 votes per scan, and we'd need 6 scans for him to cut Trump's 1267 vote lead down to zero.

That would be about two hours.

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1324607073565372416?s=20

Say we're hoping to save 20 minutes. What would it take for Biden to overtake Trump in the span of five 300-vote scans?

1267/5 = 253.4
300/2 + 253.4/2 = 276.7
276.7/300 = 92.23%

So Biden would need to win ~92.22 to 7.33% to overtake Trump in five scans.

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1324608449188044801?s=20

The X factor is that this has seemed like a really long 20 minutes.

I should probably clarify that this is just all back of the envelope math that relies on a lot of assumptions that in retrospect do not seem to be panning out (e.g. they have not updated vote counts in an hour).

The responsible take is that there is a lot of uncertainty here.

Like, there's a chance that they just abandoned the 300 votes per scan plan and have been counting a lot of them and will scan all at once.

So it could be much sooner than we expect as well.