Bitcoin is trading election results. It is now a macro asset. It responds to macro events. Trends ensuing from elections have long staying power. Best to ignore resistance levels and be patient. If it corrects, too bad, very likely it will be only temporary. Opinion not advice.
The key $BTC driver until Jan/5 will likely be the Georgia Senate election run-off, that would determine if Democrats get to control the senate. If they do, hello massive spending and currency debasament. If they don't, we get a stronger dollar. Bitcoin is trading that.
I think Trump's contesting of the elections will represent noise as far as markets are concerned. For those who disagree, this here likely is an excellent spot to sell some $BTC. That won't be me.
Caveat: virus wave. Market is ignoring it for now. This could be a game changer in 3-4 weeks.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Seems Trump won't concede until the last minute, after making every vote get recounted. We are looking at this lasting until December.
Trump claims widespread electoral fraud took place. I'd guess odds of that are in the 0%-3% range. Seems he and his close circle believe in it. He will push this to the end.
No. Trump does not have the support of the military for taking authoritarian measures, and he is fast losing support of the GOP. For as long as he doesn't overturn results at court, this is just noise.
This is nothihg alike 2017. Some minor euphoria today. Can see that in funding metrics. But $BTC is now trading like a macro asset, not a retail fantasy.
This is how ridiculous the Trump situation is now.
FTX contract back up to 0.15. Looks like Biden won't be flipping GA. Odds are rich. Say Trump has 5% chance of flipping NV, 30% of stopping PA count, and 5% of winning a WI recount. That would give him 3% chance of winning.
The math is simple. To win Trump would need two things:
#1 Win PA
#2 Win another state; only realistic possiblities are NV & WI
Probabiity of winning = P (PA) * (P(NV) + P(WI))
Input your own probabilities to determine if Trump odds are now rich, or cheap, or fairly priced.
Had missed AZ. That would leave four paths to the presidency:
PA+NV
PA+WI
PA+AZ
AZ+WI (tie, where Trump wins)
Assume odds fairly priced => market could be pricing the following:
Twitter censoring Trump again. Totally unacceptable. This can't continue, they should pay for it.
"Votes cannot be cast after the Polls are closed"
A mail-in vote can't be postmarked after election day.
You can disargee with his statement about stealing the election - that's an incendiary statement, you don't get to censor statement because you don't like them.
Censoring things you disagree with is not the way. If too sensitive or emotional, please kindly unfollow.
When it comes to COVID, you will notice news now focus only on the skyrocketing cases, making no mention of number of deaths or rock bottom fatality rates.
The most likely explanation for this is simple: journalists are more interested in clicks than in actually informing.
Cognitive biases play a big role
-Availability bias: helps people believe what they say often
-Confirmation bias: once you believe in something, interpret data in a way that confirms the belief
-Anchoring bias: interpret data using information acquired first as reference point
Basically, when the somewhat unintelligent learn about something and they talk about it repeatedly, they are likely to believe in that forever, even if new information eventually proves their belief wrong.