1. Vote Count Thread

The GOP legislatures refused to allow early counting of the mail vote in order to assist Trump w his "Red Mirage" plan. The goal was that IF the election was super close, he'd need to create the illusion of fraudulent ballots, so they needed a "live count"
2. process to be able to work the media and to be able to work the courts. BC FL basically invested the mail vote (absentee vote-by-mail system) the infrastructure for it has been codified- that is to say the GOP couldn't easily do what they did in MI, PA, & WI bc they'd have
3. pass laws & have @GovRonDeSantis sign them. So it was decided to rely on the Blue Wall states- which added/expanded their very weak vote-by-mail systems dramatically to deal w the pandemic. As everyone knows. the WI GOP f'ed w the Dems hard in the spring Dem primary bc it also
4. housed the state's general election for a state supreme court judge race- suing the state's gov to force him to hold the election largely in-person at a time when the pandemic was spiking (this was back when the Trump Admin/country was at least pretending that the American
5. strategy was something other than "herd immunity-" or what I like to call- "just let them die" so it generated a shit ton of coverage. It also created a turnout surge of pissed off Dems & left leaning Indies (neg partisanship folks, but also bc the state's Dem Party chair,
6. the person shaping strategy in WI, @benwikler, shapes the RIGHT strategy- one based on turnout & acknowledges the limitations that polarizations imposes on persuasion) an n 11pt route for the Ds. It also convinced Republicans/Trump that they must murder vote by mail. So Trump
7. comes full force after mail voting, and since he's the ultimate elite signaling for Republicans, Republican voters abandon that voting method everywhere they have the option to. That actually ends up making the GOP's strategy of this "Red Mirage" viable, bc they now have high
8. confidence that election day vote is going to heavily favor them and that disqualifying mail ballots, en masse, normally a crazy plan in a swing state, is now a great approach bc they are likely to break strongly in favor of Biden. So they begin to roll out their Red Mirage
9. plan- spend months preparing the Rep electorate to see mailed-in ballots as inherently corrupt & thus, accomplish a very hard task of normalizing the idea of disqualifying these ballots in a democracy. They have, of course, a not-insignificant asset. They have Fox News, which
10. serves as the linchpin in a massive & impenetrable propaganda machine on the political Right that has pushed out, buried, and utterly marginalized conservativisms traditional "thinkers" and publications. Today, the political right's intellectual publications, the ones that
11. that survive like The Economist (very center right) and The Bulwark (conservative) likely have as many subscribers that are moderate and even center-left as they do actual conservatives. And if that's not the case (and it may well not be) this is DEF true, in terms of
12. conservative market share, they are barely a blip. The titans there are the Sean Hannitys, Tucker Carlsons, and Rush Limbaughs & in "print," Breitbart and sites like World Net Daily. All of which conservatives describe as "news" but none of objectively meet those standards
13. Luckily, it has ended up where Biden is winning these races by margins that are indisputable but most importantly, OFF OF THE BALLOTS THAT ARRIVED PRIOR TO ELECTION DAY.

In order to "stop the count" in PA, MI, WI, GA, NC, etc, as the president requested (back when he had
14. leads in them, mind you) the courts would have to agree to disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of votes. Of legitimate, regular votes of regular American citizens that arrived via the mail bc the state's election office gave them that option in lieu of the pandemic. These
15. votes are scared votes. They are American votes. They are the votes of Michiganders, Wisconites, Pennsylvanians, Georgians. Indeed, some of the judges on these cases may have mailed their own ballots. It is very fortunate that the turnout surges & rejection of Trump
16. among pure Indies were large enough in MI, WI, and PA that the courts won't be asked to consider whether ballots postmarked before Election Day, but held up by the intentional sabotage of the USPS by Trump's team's placement of Dejoy into that position and the intentional
17. policies he put in place to "break" our mail delivery system to help Donald Trump win reelection. I truly don't know how this Dejoy guy can stand to look at himself. Hopefully, this helps you understand what I mean when I say that the lawsuits you see are not organic or
18. responding to events, the lawsuits are pre-determined and part of a months-long scam designed to corrupt our electoral system & also designed to confuse the American people. Corrupting it while simultaneously blaming the "other guy" for doing it. A staple feature of Donald
19. Trump's presidency. This is why he is a cancerous tumor on the presidency, even if a very large portion of the American population, due in large part to a steady diet of propaganda being fed to them don't realize they're in danger by Trump proximity to power, they are, in
20. in fact, in danger. So removing him from office will be the most important pro-democracy achievement of the 21st century (so far).

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More from @RachelBitecofer

7 Nov
1. DEF, @SenatorCollins, whose campaign staff is likely (and rightly) able to point at me and say WRONG! which I'm sure feels delightful for them (though I'm in good company).

I said I couldn't imagine a lot of voters voting Biden/Collins in 2020, but they did. And that's bc
2. the @SaraGideon campaign failed to nationalize their messaging- making a vote for Collins the same as a vote for Trump (which, and you ask @MichaelSteele about this- he will verify this- is exactly what the GOP would have done in the same situation). Itsa called a referendum
3. strategy- & the GOP has been using it to wipe out Ds in down-ballot races since the 1988 Boston Harbor campaign when believe it or not, Mike Dukakis was on track to kick GHWB's ass in the '88 presidential election until James Baker realized that they'd never win an issues
Read 7 tweets
7 Nov
1. The question of whether voters intentionally went for "divided" gov't is something data can answer @JoeNBC, one @tbonier, I, and others will look at after all votes are finalized.

Many other possibilities!
2. And yes, 2016 IS still a black swan event in that the Midwest states went to Trump. But the rest of what @JoeNBC is saying here is correct which is why my book on 2016 remains the only correct explanation of HRC's loss. As to Trump's appeal, what we have underestimated- my
3. guess is that celebrity is helping to buoy Trump. Yes, the microtargeting of young men of color is about politics, but I think it works better bc of the celebrity add on. And as @SteveKornacki just showed everyone in data, exactly as I predicted Biden made virtually no gains
Read 5 tweets
6 Nov
1. Whether or not 6 or 7 members of the Ds House Caucus are extreme enough to back slogans like "defend the police" is irrelevant- 0 could & the shrewd GOP would still saddle members like @SpanbergerVA07 w it.

What matters is how her own campaign gets run- the way its done now,
2. From a constantly defensive posture where she is defending her well-est moderation against a party of actual extremists, or the way that I suggest, in the offense, from a position of strength that puts the Rep Party on the defense. To me this is a no brainer- her & the other
3. Frontline Dems should be reaching out to me to discuss how we modernize the Dem Party's electioneering approach so they don't lose their majority in 2022.
Read 4 tweets
6 Nov
1. So Ds have locked in 2 of the 3 I expected them to win. The AZ seat, along w the CO seat, were pure neg partisanship- turnout surge meets demographic realignment seats, easy to see flipping.

Maine senate, however, relied on purely persuasion. Lower college edu, overwhelmingly
2. white, and majority Independent, Maine is part of a set of 3 states that make up one of the most politically interesting regions in the country (Vermont, Maine, and New Hampshire). That is bc each of these 3 states report large populations of Independents which is probably
3. why Maine and Vermont are the two states (and only two) that send political Independents to the senate (Sanders and King). My belief was that in this environment, Collins simply could not avoid being tied to Trump- esp w what ended up being 3 major events tying her to him &
Read 12 tweets
5 Nov
1. There's an uncomfortable pause in my int w @JulieOliverTX, @wendydavis, and @SiegelForTexas- 3 candidates for the House in TX who had great odds for flipping seats this cycle until they ran into the brick wall that is the @DCCC's Red to Blue program tinyurl.com/y2697uoa
2. Under the leadership of @CheriBustos the program has failed to adapt to an environment in which Ds are winning in places w high levels of college edu and/or diversity & losing otherwise. The 2020 class has already been scrubbed from the site, web.archive.org/web/2020081703…
3. but they'll live on forever on the wayback machine's archive. The 2018 class was one thing, but when I saw that the 2020 class was not being driven by realignment analytics exposed by my forecasting work, frankly, I was shocked. Even though the DCCC hadn't reached out to me,
Read 14 tweets
5 Nov
1. When I hear @clairecmc talk about Dems learning to talk to the Piggly Wiggly crowd, I hope she'll want to join/help w my moderate messaging electioneering overall for Ds effort. BC its CRUCIAL to understand- Ds & outside groups tried already to cater to these voters on the
2. persuasion. That in fact, this cycle was the product of a very concerted effort of that strategy driven by high profile data firms on the D side (many of which who've been critical of my work) & it was a complete and total failure for 2 reasons. The main 1 is that it wants
3. to ignore the effect that polarization is having on voter behavior & the limitations that is placing on certain electioneering techniques that USED TO BE EFFECTIVE and are now not. I want to make something really clear- it is only in places where at least 1 element of the D's
Read 19 tweets

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