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Rachel
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7 Nov, 5 tweets, 2 min read
1. The question of whether voters intentionally went for "divided" gov't is something data can answer @JoeNBC, one @tbonier, I, and others will look at after all votes are finalized.

Many other possibilities!
2. And yes, 2016 IS still a black swan event in that the Midwest states went to Trump. But the rest of what @JoeNBC is saying here is correct which is why my book on 2016 remains the only correct explanation of HRC's loss. As to Trump's appeal, what we have underestimated- my
3. guess is that celebrity is helping to buoy Trump. Yes, the microtargeting of young men of color is about politics, but I think it works better bc of the celebrity add on. And as @SteveKornacki just showed everyone in data, exactly as I predicted Biden made virtually no gains
4. In rural PA, the victories are from giant surges in the suburbs. This is literally EXACTLY what I said would happen.
Which is why the negative partisanship model nailed the prez election cnu.edu/wasoncenter/20…

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More from @RachelBitecofer

Rachel
9 Nov
1. The 2022 cycle is likely to produce a "reversion to the mean" in terms of voter behavior, with Indies pulling back their turnout surge and w/o the strategic modernization I am BEGGING for, Dem coalition voters rolling back too.

This will produce party splits in districts like
2. VA's 7, which BTW my research & theory was able to identify as DEF flipping in 2018 blind to the candidate based purely on the above surge reality from demo change, realignment, generational change, & growth (this was posted
washingtonpost.com/blogs/all-opin…
3. five months before Election Day & when other raters had this district Lean R! That was the recipe for winning under the Trump surge election, and frankly, Ds could be sloppy on strategy and still win. There was virtually no price for it in 2018 & even though there was a price
Read 7 tweets
Rachel
9 Nov
1. It's come to my att. that some people blame individual candidates for the Ds underperformance in the congressional map. Just like it's not the fault of progressives, BLM, OR moderate issues, it's not the fault of candidates or individual campaigns, folks.

These campaigns are
2. run under basic strategic maps brought to them by the DCCC/DSCCC/DLCC & imposed on the campaigns. If the campaigns want the help, they must accept these imposed "rules" from their on, messaging, ads, direct mailers- its ll set by the party's strategists. That's why MY ire is
3. directed, bc the strategic approach being crafted from the "C-suite" (executive office/corporate offices) in the partry's orgs, despite being research-based, is producing subpar outcomes electorally & needs to be overhauled. The frustration is that this need has been clear
Read 7 tweets
Rachel
8 Nov
1. No sooner than will Biden be sworn in than the VA 2021 cycle, w an open gubernatorial race commences. The cycle will be highly contentious bc both parties will face open primaries & bc the GOP overperformed down-ballot, I expect GOP candidates will compete for than nomination
2. BUT the competition on the DEM side is going to be ridiculous. Seriously, we might get to 2020 Dem primary proportions. This is bc the Dem nominee will be highly favored to win. And despite VA's long reputation of breaking for the oppo party of the prez elected the year before
3. the dealignment of college-educated whites makes the continuation of this trend unlikely this cycle. In this cycle, 2020, with virtually no spending (though Biden did run some TV ads) Biden won 54.1% of the vote, and turnout is at 71%. This is bc VBA is the 5th most educated
Read 30 tweets
Rachel
7 Nov
1. DEF, @SenatorCollins, whose campaign staff is likely (and rightly) able to point at me and say WRONG! which I'm sure feels delightful for them (though I'm in good company).

I said I couldn't imagine a lot of voters voting Biden/Collins in 2020, but they did. And that's bc
2. the @SaraGideon campaign failed to nationalize their messaging- making a vote for Collins the same as a vote for Trump (which, and you ask @MichaelSteele about this- he will verify this- is exactly what the GOP would have done in the same situation). Itsa called a referendum
3. strategy- & the GOP has been using it to wipe out Ds in down-ballot races since the 1988 Boston Harbor campaign when believe it or not, Mike Dukakis was on track to kick GHWB's ass in the '88 presidential election until James Baker realized that they'd never win an issues
Read 7 tweets
Rachel
6 Nov
1. Whether or not 6 or 7 members of the Ds House Caucus are extreme enough to back slogans like "defend the police" is irrelevant- 0 could & the shrewd GOP would still saddle members like @SpanbergerVA07 w it.

What matters is how her own campaign gets run- the way its done now,
2. From a constantly defensive posture where she is defending her well-est moderation against a party of actual extremists, or the way that I suggest, in the offense, from a position of strength that puts the Rep Party on the defense. To me this is a no brainer- her & the other
3. Frontline Dems should be reaching out to me to discuss how we modernize the Dem Party's electioneering approach so they don't lose their majority in 2022.
Read 4 tweets
Rachel
6 Nov
1. So Ds have locked in 2 of the 3 I expected them to win. The AZ seat, along w the CO seat, were pure neg partisanship- turnout surge meets demographic realignment seats, easy to see flipping.

Maine senate, however, relied on purely persuasion. Lower college edu, overwhelmingly
2. white, and majority Independent, Maine is part of a set of 3 states that make up one of the most politically interesting regions in the country (Vermont, Maine, and New Hampshire). That is bc each of these 3 states report large populations of Independents which is probably
3. why Maine and Vermont are the two states (and only two) that send political Independents to the senate (Sanders and King). My belief was that in this environment, Collins simply could not avoid being tied to Trump- esp w what ended up being 3 major events tying her to him &
Read 12 tweets

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