1. Whether or not 6 or 7 members of the Ds House Caucus are extreme enough to back slogans like "defend the police" is irrelevant- 0 could & the shrewd GOP would still saddle members like @SpanbergerVA07 w it.

What matters is how her own campaign gets run- the way its done now,
2. From a constantly defensive posture where she is defending her well-est moderation against a party of actual extremists, or the way that I suggest, in the offense, from a position of strength that puts the Rep Party on the defense. To me this is a no brainer- her & the other
3. Frontline Dems should be reaching out to me to discuss how we modernize the Dem Party's electioneering approach so they don't lose their majority in 2022.
To add to this- this is the campaign/electioneering reality Democrats face, whether they like it or not. Its not fair. Its not accurate. In fact, its ridiculous.

But you don't answer it by running "issues" campaigns focused on healthcare.

Time for D's to get real

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More from @RachelBitecofer

8 Nov
1. No sooner than will Biden be sworn in than the VA 2021 cycle, w an open gubernatorial race commences. The cycle will be highly contentious bc both parties will face open primaries & bc the GOP overperformed down-ballot, I expect GOP candidates will compete for than nomination
2. BUT the competition on the DEM side is going to be ridiculous. Seriously, we might get to 2020 Dem primary proportions. This is bc the Dem nominee will be highly favored to win. And despite VA's long reputation of breaking for the oppo party of the prez elected the year before
3. the dealignment of college-educated whites makes the continuation of this trend unlikely this cycle. In this cycle, 2020, with virtually no spending (though Biden did run some TV ads) Biden won 54.1% of the vote, and turnout is at 71%. This is bc VBA is the 5th most educated
Read 30 tweets
7 Nov
1. DEF, @SenatorCollins, whose campaign staff is likely (and rightly) able to point at me and say WRONG! which I'm sure feels delightful for them (though I'm in good company).

I said I couldn't imagine a lot of voters voting Biden/Collins in 2020, but they did. And that's bc
2. the @SaraGideon campaign failed to nationalize their messaging- making a vote for Collins the same as a vote for Trump (which, and you ask @MichaelSteele about this- he will verify this- is exactly what the GOP would have done in the same situation). Itsa called a referendum
3. strategy- & the GOP has been using it to wipe out Ds in down-ballot races since the 1988 Boston Harbor campaign when believe it or not, Mike Dukakis was on track to kick GHWB's ass in the '88 presidential election until James Baker realized that they'd never win an issues
Read 7 tweets
7 Nov
1. The question of whether voters intentionally went for "divided" gov't is something data can answer @JoeNBC, one @tbonier, I, and others will look at after all votes are finalized.

Many other possibilities!
2. And yes, 2016 IS still a black swan event in that the Midwest states went to Trump. But the rest of what @JoeNBC is saying here is correct which is why my book on 2016 remains the only correct explanation of HRC's loss. As to Trump's appeal, what we have underestimated- my
3. guess is that celebrity is helping to buoy Trump. Yes, the microtargeting of young men of color is about politics, but I think it works better bc of the celebrity add on. And as @SteveKornacki just showed everyone in data, exactly as I predicted Biden made virtually no gains
Read 5 tweets
6 Nov
1. So Ds have locked in 2 of the 3 I expected them to win. The AZ seat, along w the CO seat, were pure neg partisanship- turnout surge meets demographic realignment seats, easy to see flipping.

Maine senate, however, relied on purely persuasion. Lower college edu, overwhelmingly
2. white, and majority Independent, Maine is part of a set of 3 states that make up one of the most politically interesting regions in the country (Vermont, Maine, and New Hampshire). That is bc each of these 3 states report large populations of Independents which is probably
3. why Maine and Vermont are the two states (and only two) that send political Independents to the senate (Sanders and King). My belief was that in this environment, Collins simply could not avoid being tied to Trump- esp w what ended up being 3 major events tying her to him &
Read 12 tweets
6 Nov
1. Vote Count Thread

The GOP legislatures refused to allow early counting of the mail vote in order to assist Trump w his "Red Mirage" plan. The goal was that IF the election was super close, he'd need to create the illusion of fraudulent ballots, so they needed a "live count"
2. process to be able to work the media and to be able to work the courts. BC FL basically invested the mail vote (absentee vote-by-mail system) the infrastructure for it has been codified- that is to say the GOP couldn't easily do what they did in MI, PA, & WI bc they'd have
3. pass laws & have @GovRonDeSantis sign them. So it was decided to rely on the Blue Wall states- which added/expanded their very weak vote-by-mail systems dramatically to deal w the pandemic. As everyone knows. the WI GOP f'ed w the Dems hard in the spring Dem primary bc it also
Read 20 tweets
5 Nov
1. There's an uncomfortable pause in my int w @JulieOliverTX, @wendydavis, and @SiegelForTexas- 3 candidates for the House in TX who had great odds for flipping seats this cycle until they ran into the brick wall that is the @DCCC's Red to Blue program tinyurl.com/y2697uoa
2. Under the leadership of @CheriBustos the program has failed to adapt to an environment in which Ds are winning in places w high levels of college edu and/or diversity & losing otherwise. The 2020 class has already been scrubbed from the site, web.archive.org/web/2020081703…
3. but they'll live on forever on the wayback machine's archive. The 2018 class was one thing, but when I saw that the 2020 class was not being driven by realignment analytics exposed by my forecasting work, frankly, I was shocked. Even though the DCCC hadn't reached out to me,
Read 14 tweets

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