Anatomy of a standard #COVID19 response:
1. Recommend cancellation of elective procedures, causing financial strain on hospitals which in turn results in layoffs
2. Vastly overestimate the efficacy of masks and mask mandates, creating overreliance on unproven prevention methods
3. "Cases" eventually go up anyway (highly contagious+PCR tests), public officials blame the public for not "following the rules" re: masks
4. Layoffs from step 1 result in reduced number of beds that can be staffed when virus inevitably peaks, straining hospital workers
5. Media provide anecdotal horror stories of hospitals filling up but does not accurately reflect the big picture of the number of hospital beds available in an area
6. Virus spread eventually slows, regardless of what NPIs were put in place and at what time
7. Media/politicians/health officials push that NPIs were what slowed the spread vs. seasonality/community-level resistance

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More from @IAmTheActualET

28 Sep
To illustrate why #COVID19 PCR testing is flawed, and why we need transparency on cycles from positive tests, here is a hypothetical: say someone took a $1 bill from me and claimed I was distributing cocaine. Most paper bills have over 0.1 micrograms. academic.oup.com/jat/article/20…
To help determine whether I was in possession of cocaine, my accuser has a machine that can multiply any trace amounts found on a dollar bill by two every cycle it ran. You could set it to any number of cycles - but let's say 40, to match the CDC guideline for #COVID19.
So, multiplying 0.1 micrograms by two 40 times is roughly 110,000 grams, or 110 kilograms, or 242 pounds. So the tiny, trace amounts of cocaine found on my $1 bill is now about the same weight as former NFL linebacker Luke Kuechly. I would be going to jail for a long time.
Read 8 tweets
23 Sep
Thinking about this Star Tribune article from May detailing how there are two ends to a pandemic: a “social” one and “medical” one. They quote some historians who theorize the social end may be before medical, but I think the opposite has actually happened m.startribune.com/pandemic-s-end…
The “social” end is when people just stop worrying about the disease. Clinical definitions may vary - but it’s clear COVID is no longer an enormous burden on our health care system. Hospitalizations are dropping drastically and have been for months at this point.
The renewed focus on “cases” using PCR tests that are far too sensitive and are not useful for diagnostic purposes this late in the game is artificially extending our “social” pandemic, as more useful indicators (hospitalizations and ED visits) continue to drop ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
9 Sep
1/ I'm seeing "heart issues related to #COVID19" making the rounds again on Twitter today - I have to admit, I just saw this study that found 48% of elite high-endurance athletes had myocardial inflammation post-infection. Yikes! (source below)
2/ Wait…what's this? This is from 2009? And it's about…the common cold? Not COVID-19? So strange…why haven't we stopped all sports for this? Surely athletes have been dying from cardiac inflammation since the beginning of time! This cannot stand!
jcmr-online.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
3/ Dropping the facetious façade now…as I (and more importantly, cardiologists) have been saying all along, cardiac inflammation after an infection (particularly a bad one) is nothing new. It is why they say it's important to take it easy while you are sick and for a while after
Read 6 tweets
9 Sep
By instituting insane, unattainable "case per population" goals to get life back to normal you are indirectly incentivizing people who are actually sick to not seek proper care. People being very sick, but not wanting to contribute to everyone's imprisonment if they test COVID+
This isn't just for COVID but for other health problems as well. In Denver they showed while cardiac arrests went up, EMT runs went down. A study showed cancer diagnoses went down 50% in the US. Looking at @EthicalSkeptic's graph here you see cancer deaths are already rising. ImageImage
Hospitalizations are the key metric. If an asymptomatic 20-something tests positive for a PCR test, who cares? Studies show asymptomatic transmission is extremely rare. Not overwhelming the health care system was the goal and we've achieved it. Look at this graph. Image
Read 4 tweets
4 Sep
1/2 It appears the mystery of Kansas City having a "case spike" while deaths have slowed/flattened has been solved: younger, presumably healthier people have been taking the brunt of the infections. Significantly fewer deaths in the at-risk populations after this happened. Image
2/2 This flies in the face of the narrative bureaucratic apocalypse-worshipers like @RexArcherMD will push - that cases in young people puts everyone at risk. Turns out people are capable of making their own risk calculations, if we insulate the at-risk and let everyone else...
...get on with their lives, eventually the virus runs its course. Common-sense approaches based on decades of research were always the answer. Stay home if you're sick, wash your hands, sneeze/cough into your sleeve if you must go out and are sick, limit large-scale gatherings.
Read 4 tweets
3 Sep
1/ For any friends in the KC region, I highly recommend checking out MHA's COVID-19 dashboard. As @RexArcherMD pushes "exponential growth" of cases in KC, MHA tells a much different story. % positive always below 10. Included reopening/mask dates. (Last few weeks data incomplete) Image
2/ Going to metrics that actually matter, we have 249 hospitalized patients with (not necessarily from) #COVID19. According to the dashboard, there are 4,863 total hospital/ICU beds in the KC region. So 5% of hospitalized patients. Five percent, and the trend is flat/down. Image
3/ Reproductive rate of <1, total infections in KC region at 15% assuming 1/10 case/infection ratio which is well within CDC's estimate. Don't let @RexArcherMD's fear mongering fool you - we're doing fine, and things will be trending way down in mid/late Sept as I've said before. Image
Read 4 tweets

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