Big problems for the Republican Party that stem from this election.
1. Trump may turn on them for letting him down.
2. Trump may stick around like a bad smell.
3. Georgia and Texas are becoming swing states.
4. The popular vote can't be defeated forever.
1. Trump may turn on them for letting him down.
2. Trump may stick around like a bad smell.
3. Georgia and Texas are becoming swing states.
4. The popular vote can't be defeated forever.
Trump may now turn on Republicans for letting him down.
Donald Trump will not accept he was at fault. So he'll blame imaginary fraud.
The Republican Party will move on, will not push forward Trump electors in defiance of state votes, so Trump may attack them for weakness.
Donald Trump will not accept he was at fault. So he'll blame imaginary fraud.
The Republican Party will move on, will not push forward Trump electors in defiance of state votes, so Trump may attack them for weakness.
If Trump blames Republicans for not backing him - in pursuing imaginary fraud, keeping his people out of jail, or even for refusing to overturn state democracy - many Trump fans will turn on the party too.
That's problematic as the party needs those voters still.
That's problematic as the party needs those voters still.
Republicans must fear Trump will stick around like a bad smell.
He, or his children, may decide to run for President in 2024.
His base in the GOP is strong enough that they could get nominated.
But that ensures election defeat again for Republicans.
He, or his children, may decide to run for President in 2024.
His base in the GOP is strong enough that they could get nominated.
But that ensures election defeat again for Republicans.
If Trump sticks around and his family run for President again - having failed to win with all the advantages of incumbency - there is almost no prospect of Republican recovery.
Independents and moderate Republicans won't offer benefit of the doubt again like 2016 again.
Independents and moderate Republicans won't offer benefit of the doubt again like 2016 again.
Unrelated to Trump - Georgia and Texas are becoming swing states for a reason. N Carolina, Arizona and some other Red states are too.
States with fast growing populations become less rural and more sub/urban - boosting Democrats. They also gain Electoral College votes at census.
States with fast growing populations become less rural and more sub/urban - boosting Democrats. They also gain Electoral College votes at census.
Losing safe states is a problem for Republicans who have been more dependent on rural and small town votes than ever this election.
It may take a decade or two but without a new plan to make blue states swing long term, Republicans could be locked out of power by the 2030s.
It may take a decade or two but without a new plan to make blue states swing long term, Republicans could be locked out of power by the 2030s.
The Republicans have now lost the popular vote (usually by large margins) in seven of the last eight presidential elections. The only exception was with incumbency advantage and with wartime advantage (in 2004)
That is an historically unprecedented run, and the gap is growing.
That is an historically unprecedented run, and the gap is growing.
While the electoral college means the popular vote is not absolutely crucial, the reality is that defying long term it is not a rational strategy, especially as some red states are becoming swing states as part of it.
Unpopularity is a burden any party needs to address.
Unpopularity is a burden any party needs to address.
So what damage will the Republicans face up to first after this defeat?
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