October 31 – Ontario weekly update

Data is 100% public and official, and fully cited.

#COVID19Canada #COVID19Ontario
Ontario (population: 14,745,040):

Total deaths by/with covid-19: 3,209 (218 deaths per every million people in ON or 0.02%)

38.8% of Canadian population but 30.7% of Canada deaths by/with covid-19
The two most important metrics to watch: deaths and ICU occupancy.

Ontario now reports:

- 86 in ICU

- 49 in ICU on a ventilator
Ontario now reports:

- 86 in ICU

- 49 in ICU on a ventilator
Ontario now reports:

- 380 in hospital

- 86 in ICU

- 49 in ICU on a ventilator
As data on daily new hospitalizations is not publicly available, this is the average daily net change in hospitalizations (ICU and non-ICU).
Ontario - The proportion of cases (positive test results) resulting in death (yellow line).
Ontario “Second Wave”:

- Growth is not exponential

- May be able to declare a peak when average week-over-week growth reaches zero
The Ontario government's level of testing and testing criteria have likely affected the number of cases (positive test results).
The positivity rate on tests conducted in Ontario (yellow line).
Deaths in Ontario, 2015-19, plus all deaths in 2020, Jan-July.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
This is what 2020 might look like in Ontario month-to-month if:
1. All-cause deaths (excl. Covid-19) are in line with 2017-19 averages
2. All Covid-19 deaths are single-cause excess deaths

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
Ontario deaths 2017-July 2020. Recent 2020 data may be subject to revision.
Covid-19 has been a crisis in Ontario's long-term care (LTC) system vs. among the general public.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
This is the number of deaths by/with covid-19 per million people, among both:

1. the general public, outside the long-term care (LTC) system
2. long-term care (LTC) residents

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)
Ontario - Covid-19 still presents a risk primarily to the elderly, not to children and hardly to working-age adults.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised.)
The average age of a death by or with covid-19 is higher than life expectancy.

Deaths among those over 80 account for 68.7% of deaths by/with covid-19, but only 52.2% of all deaths (all causes) in 2018.
Bear in mind that the risk of death will sadly always rise in line with one's advancing age.

In 2018, 18.8% of those in the over-90 age cohort passed away.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised.)
If you are under 70, your risk of dying after being infected with SARS-CoV-2 is lower than your annual risk of death.

If you are over 70, your risk of dying after being infected is only slightly higher than your annual risk of death.
Greater Toronto and Ottawa account for 50.3% of Ontario’s population but 79.7% of Ontario’s covid-19 deaths.
City of Toronto (population: 2,731,571 or 18.5% of Ontario):

Total deaths by/with covid-19: 1,399 (512 deaths per every million people in Toronto or 0.05%)

43.6% of Ontario deaths by/with covid-19
Suburban Toronto (population: 3,685,945 or 25.0% of Ontario):

Total deaths by/with covid-19: 823 (223 deaths per every million people in the region or 0.02%)

25.6% of Ontario deaths by/with covid-19
City of Ottawa (population: 1,006,210 or 6.8% of Ontario):

Total deaths by/with covid-19: 336 (334 deaths per every million people in Ottawa or 0.03%)

10.5% of Ontario deaths by/with covid-19

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More from @Milhouse_Van_Ho

8 Nov
Here's the seasonal pattern of influenza and pneumonia in Ontario.

Look familiar? Image
Hospitalizations for influenza and pneumonia peak at 27/100,000 in January and hit trough at 11/100,000.

Multiplying by 147 to adjust for Ontario's population, that would be a range of 1,617 in August to 3,969 in January. Image
Could covid simply be displaying its seasonality? If that's the case, this isn't a second wave; it's autumn.

Look at the trend of covid-linked hospitalizations below - keeping in mind that we didn't have mass PCR testing for covid last winter, but ramped it up in the spring. Image
Read 6 tweets
8 Nov
So why did Peel Region, including @BonnieCrombie, @patrickbrownont, and Peel's MOH Lawrence Loh, cancel Christmas?

What gives them the right to do this?

Is it because hospitals are full?

No.

Is it because the bodies are piling up?

No.

(thread...)

#COVID19Ontario ImageImage
This is the situation in Peel Region.

330 deaths by or with covid-19 from a population of 1,381,739.

So clearly, a lot of "cases" (positive test results) but very few deaths relative to the size of this urban area. Image
What about hospitals?

Trillium Health Partners, which operates two hospitals in Mississauga and one close by in Toronto, reports a staggering... 33 patients confirmed positive with covid-19.

And only 8 of those 33 are in ICU. Image
Read 8 tweets
7 Nov
7 novembre – Mise à jour hebdomadaire du Québec

Les données sont 100% publiques et officielles.

#COVID19Canada #covid19qc

November 7 – Ontario weekly update

Data is 100% public and official, and fully cited.

#COVID19Canada #COVID19Ontario
Canada - Covid-19 still presents a risk primarily to the elderly, not to children and hardly to working-age adults.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised.)
The average age of a death by or with covid-19 is higher than life expectancy.

Deaths among those over 80 account for 70.9% of deaths by/with covid-19, but only 51.2% of all deaths (all causes) in 2018.
Read 7 tweets
7 Nov
31 octobre – Mise à jour hebdomadaire du Québec

Les données sont 100% publiques et officielles.

#COVID19Canada #covid19qc
Québec (population: 8,552,362):

Nombre total de décès liés à Covid-19: 6 403 (749 décès pour chaque million de personnes au Québec ou 0,07%).

22,5% de la population canadienne, mais 61,4% des décès liés à la covid-19 au Canada.
Les deux paramètres les plus importants à surveiller: les décès et hospitalisations aux soins intensifs.

77 hospitalisations aux soins intensifs en cours au Québec.
Read 10 tweets
7 Nov
Canada:

If you're under 70, your risk of dying after being infected with SARS-CoV-2 is lower than your annual risk of death.

If you're over 70, your risk of dying after being infected is only slightly higher than your annual risk of death.

#covid19canada
To explain:

In 2018, there were 205,409 deaths among those over 70, and the 70+ population was 4,319,780. That means that ~4.76% of those over 70 years of age died that year (of all causes).
CDC's Current Best Estimate of Covid-19 IFR is 5.4% for those over 70%.
Read 5 tweets
21 Oct
How will we know when the Covid-19 pandemic is over in Canada?

Has it (the pandemic, not the virus itself) been over for months now?

Is what we are seeing now the virus in its endemic state?
The "second wave" isn't comparable to the spring peak, other than "case" numbers, which may reflect testing levels more than anything else.

Deaths and hospitalizations are a fraction of what they were in March/April/May.
And we know that dying or being hospitalized 'because of' or simply 'with' covid-19 is an important distinction.
Read 22 tweets

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