~Strong Numbers
~Highest Ever Quarterly Volumes
~Strong growth in Sales, EBITDA, PBT & PAT
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Highlights of the Quarter's Performance
Volumes
~Segment Wise
~Channel Wise
~Geography wise
Financials
~P&L
~Forex Gain/Loss
~B/S
~Cash Flows
Concalls Points
•Guidance of surpassing FY20 volumes marginally in FY21
•As Europe is entering into lockdown mode, guidance is a conservative one
•Due to tech advancement & product-mix capacity will reduce capacity (6-7%). Mgmnt will give more clarity on it in the next call
•Volume growth is a mix of market growth and capturing market share from competitors.
•Inventories were down in Q1 as there was less production, it is slowly being built up.
•Inventories are still not on a normalized level; it is expected to build up further going forward.
•EBITDA margin guidance continues to be 28-30% on a long term sustainable basis.
•Natural rubber prices have been very volatile in the last 6 months & are on an increasing trend as of now.
•Upbeat on the Indian market and have increased their brand-building initiatives here.
•Other exp as a % of sales continues to be around 21% and that’s sustainable.
•OTR segment’s contribution has increased significantly in recent years. (from 20% to 33%)
•Ultra-large radial tires (57”) have been launched a week ago.
•Australia & Asia- very good traction
•Leader in Australia agri segment.
•BKT spends around 100 Cr every year on A&P. And these expenses have been provided for. So, do not expect any further A&P expense in the subsequent quarters.
•Import ban of tires in India is restricted only in CV so does not impact BKT.
•No comments on the impact of the new lockdown in Europe as it is too early to know the exact impact.
•Currently, the OEM & channel partners continue to suggest that the demand will be maintained but uncertainty still persists.
•No major increase in employee expenses.
•ASP (245-252/Kg ) will continue to be the same despite the reduction (6-7%) in production capacity.
•India, Australia & North America are the growth opportunities for Ultra Large Mining tires ging ahead.
•Realizations on these tires are marginally higher than the rest.
•Q2 growth was largely due to orders of Q2 only & not due to slippages of Q1 which were booked in Q2.
•Market share is 5-6% in India.
•Margins in India are slightly lower but on a consolidated level, it does not change the equations much.
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1. Domestic Business slow but Vietnam unit very strong performance. (Consolidated Numbers good) 2. Large US order gives visibility for the full year in Vietnam unit 3. 9k-10K Mt could be the total volumes from Vietnam for the year.
4. Capacity utilization: Spray-dried-80%, Freeze-dried: 65% (mainly due to 2 months of plant shut down). 5. Margin profile Spray-dried: Freeze dried= 1: 2-2.5 6. Domestic Branded business did very well (Rev 60 Cr in H1) (70% growth YoY). Still in a minor loss.
7. Hoping to cross 100 Cr revenue in domestic branded business in FY21 8. European Supermarket business order for next year also secured which gives visibility. 9. Small packing business plant to be fully operational by the next financial year.
Whenever thinking is a byproduct of an activity (like observing, seeing, reading, writing, listening, talking, etc) it yields far better results than when thinking is your main activity.
Let’s look at the field of investment from this angle.
A thread
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When you come across any investment idea, your monkey mind jumps to conclusions by thinking instantly without doing the work.
This initial bias has a lot of influence over your analysis from thereon.
That is the time you should tell yourself.
Do more think less.
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The next question which pops up is. Do what?
Slow Down. Don’t think if the idea is good or bad.
Just Observe.
Start with observing the environment.
Qns worth asking
~Is it the right industry to be in?
~Can I understand the business?
~Does it look sustainable?
Scam 1992- The Harshad Mehta Story is trending for a while.
Some snippets from the book, The Scam, by Madam @suchetadalal & Sir Debashish (@Moneylifers) that probably needs more attention from investors’ point of view than the emotional chords the series touched.
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Valuation Principle
“The cornerstone of Harshad’s philosophy was his pet Replacement Cost Theory, under which existing companies ought to be valued at the much higher cost of replacing them and not at the much lower historical cost as per conventional accounting methods.”
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Modus Operandi
"Traders earning 2.5 cr salary; 1-yr-old finance companies buying & selling shares worth Rs 7000 cr; blank bank documents (bank receipts or BRs) stacked in brokers’ offices; crores of rupees sent by one bank to another, but deposited in individual accounts."
In a book titled 'Reimagining India: Unlocking The Potential of Asia's Next Superpower', Schultz wrote an essay.
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In the essay, he mentioned this incident at the celebratory dinner, the night of Tata Starbucks' first store's opening in Mumbai. Ratan Tata offered a toast which moved Schultz.
He writes in the book,
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"A few weeks after returning from the opening of our Mumbai store, we held one of our big open forum meetings where we get the entire company together. And as I tried to describe that moment for everyone, something came over me. I started to cry. ..
Before moving further, look at this video (4-6 mins) to see how uniquely the MD & CEO Sandipan Chattopadhyay defines AI.
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~Started in 2015- 24 people
~IPO in 2019
~End-to-end IT service provider
~Product Dev, Data Science & Analytics
~Next Gen Tech: Al & ML
~Core theme: HEAL (Health, Edu, Agri & Livelihood)
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A unique business of providing tech solutions in exchange for equity.
Did you know that Tata’s foray into the beverage space goes back as early as May, 1963 when Tata-Finlay Ltd, Tata Group's tea, coffee, and spices business, was established as a joint venture with James Finlay and Company, a Scottish firm?
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Since then the Tata group has grown organically and inorganically in the food beverage space. However, their holding structure with the group companies was very complex.
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In 2017, when N Chandra took over the charge of Tata Sons and adopted a strategy to disentangle cross-holdings and simplify structures, the seeds of transformation in Tata Consumer products (erstwhile Tata Global Beverages) were sown.
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