7 Nov, 8 tweets, 2 min read
As a consistent third party voter living in a state that wasn't going to swing a close election, I don't vote R or D.

But this is the time to throw weight behind an investigation into the possibility of a stolen election. We must investigate the statistical evidence.
So, let us investigate the statistical evidence broadly and as a community. Carefully and honestly. Benford's law is a clever technique, but there is an underlying reason behind it that should be understood to best apply the fundamental test.
The reason behind it is that population pools grow exponentially, so they move through orders of magnitude at an invariant rate. If we take the logarithm, the results are then linear. Discarding the integer parts, the fraction parts should form a uniform distribution.
The object to this is that range constraints throw off the uniformity of that distribution. We can correct for this! Constrained distributions tend to either be monotonic or convex with a local maxima/minima.
When we choose a smaller logarithmic base, our 9 or 10 intervals (that's arbitrary for the lead digit count, so just think k intervals) become modular and stack the different parts of the distribution in a way that in practice induces uniformity to a high degree.
To convince yourself, try it with a data set. Instead of counting the lead digits, take the log base 1.2 of the vote counts (or try different bases). Now discard the integer part. Pick k intervals from 0 to 1 and count the number of the remaining fraction parts in each interval.
Will we see that election results have high smoothness over those k intervals? I have seen this for myself to a high degree so far, but what I want for you to do is test it on several elections and see for yourself.
Now, run the same filter on Biden data for this election or other elections.

Your jaw may drop to the floor. One of these candidates does not look like all of the other ones, historically speaking. If you're a half-decent spreadsheet jock, see for yourself.

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# More from @EduEngineer

2 Nov
1. This thread is a bit of comic relief from the pandemic.
2. Somewhere, out in the Ocean, a beautiful and thriving civilization spans the island of Pandemos. Larger in land size than Australia, you might miss it on a map, er, due to distortions in scale caused by Mercator projection.
3. The lush and resourceful Pandemos has allowed for the Pandemosians to engineer an amazing modern society.
31 Oct
1. This is a thread compiling the most interesting threads of the 2020 pandemic. If you've seen a thread or even a single epic tweet that you think belongs, share it and I'll consider adding it.
2. The #LancetGate may get a few mentions along the way.

How did anyone who handle the Surgisphere study prior to publication think it would look real?
3. Here is James Todaro tweeting about chloroquine, clearly after numerous conversations about it, a week prior to Trump's first mention.
31 Oct
1. This thread is about a statistical phenomenon called a Simpson's paradox and how it relates to the #Hydroxychloroquine research that gets so hotly debated.

A more complete version of this analysis will appear in my next book #TheChloroquineWars.
2. If you are unfamiliar with Simpson's paradoxes, you can read up on the basics here. However, the example I present may well teach the concept. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%2…
3. Consider three hospitals with different treatment policies. Perhaps the standard of care (SoC) is uniform, for the sake of simplicity, but the hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) treatment policies are different.
30 Oct
1. This is a very brief story about how two members of the U.S. COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines Panel hid their financial disclosures with Gilead Sciences, makers of remdesivir...
2. Exhibit A: On April 22, Rajesh Gandhi and Pablo Tebas disclosed financial relationships with Gilead Sciences.

web.archive.org/web/2020042215…
3. Exhibit B: Sometime between then and now, Rajesh Gandhi and Pablo Tebas retracted their disclosures of financial relationships with Gilead Sciences.

covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/panel-financia…
29 Oct
Unfortunately, it's going to be a couple of weeks before I complete my book, #TheChloroquineWars about the strange tale of #Hydroxychloroquine politics during the pandemic. It's not an easy book to write in 10 weeks. So, as a teaser, I'm going to tweet out a full chapter now...
Chapter 29: A Clockwork Orange Man

“In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual.” --Galileo Galilei
In 1951, Solomon Asch conducted a landmark experiment in which students were asked to match the segment on a card with one of the same length on another card, a total of 18 times.