Thread by @RachelBitecofer

1. No sooner than will Biden be sworn in than the VA 2021 cycle, w an open gubernatorial race commences. The cycle will be highly contentious bc both parties will face open primaries & bc the GOP overperformed down-ballot, I expect GOP candidates will compete for than nomination

2. BUT the competition on the DEM side is going to be ridiculous. Seriously, we might get to 2020 Dem primary proportions. This is bc the Dem nominee will be highly favored to win. And despite VA's long reputation of breaking for the oppo party of the prez elected the year before

3. the dealignment of college-educated whites makes the continuation of this trend unlikely this cycle. In this cycle, 2020, with virtually no spending (though Biden did run some TV ads) Biden won 54.1% of the vote, and turnout is at 71%. This is bc VBA is the 5th most educated

4. state in the country (and long-time followers know, the birthplace of my theory). That said, we could EASILY see a repeat of what we saw on Tuesday happen to @vademocrats in 2021 if this modernization of electioneering effort of mine doesn't succeed. The reason why is that the

5. statehouse in VA flipped from GOP to Demn control from the Trump Effect: the surge of Dem Coalition voters to the polls after 2016- which in VA flipped a ton of state leg seats in the 2017 & 2019 cycles. Enthusiasm/backlash to Trump that increased participation in these cycles

6. dramatically- to levels you might see in a more healthy democracy with a functioning citizenry! Now that the threat of Trump will be gone, the potential for a turnout/participation rollback will be BIG. Democrats will need to redesign their electioneering approach to inspire

7. large turnout. The good news is though that thanks to Trump & the RNC, we already know that via artificially stimulated negative partisanship, enhanced turnout can be achieved. We know this bc unlike Dem turnout during the Obama Admin, turnout among rank and file Republicans

8. did NOT decline or recede once they took power in 2016. This was something that surprised me in 2018- something I did not predict and learned from that cycle! And bc Rep turnout did not decline (in fact, it increased too over its 2014 baseline, just clearly not as much as

9. turnout by Democrats in 2018, which increased dramatically over its dismal 2014 performance) the GOP held off the @staceyabrams & @BetoORourke challenges & was able to win in FL, MO, and IN that cycle. This is why I always expected strong R turnout in 2020, was skeptical at

10. media's obsession w the supposedly disaffected Republican voter- embarrassed by the anti-democratic, serial liar president that is associated to them by shared party label. The meta data showed a diff story, and continued to show it through the whole of the cycle- Republicans

11. not only sticking w the guy- they LOVED the dude. He was giving them what they wanted- exactly what they wanted- and that is bc for these voters, the world they live in, the one created by Fox News & right-wing media, is a world so fucked up,. that's been so distorted, that

12. that if you lived in that world, if that was your working reality, you would support Donald Trump too. That is why they maintain that ecosystem so rigorously & discredit the actual world so ferociously. If you live in right-wing media world, your reality has been so distorted

13. that Donald Trump looks smart and safe. Think about that! Anyway, bringing this back to VA 2021. If the Dems here run the strategy that got ran for the 2020 cycle, even if a Dem wins the gov race (and that D is likely going to be @TerryMcAuliffe who served 1 term as VA Gov

14. before the current gov (VA Gov has that weird 1 term rule!) McAuliffe had to step in and be surrogate governor for the entire 2019 election cycle for @RalphNortham- who was caught up in the so-called "blackface" scandal over a yearbook picture the gov initially admitted was

15. him but then backtracked and said he did not recall the costume and contested it was him in the picture. Despite nearly a month of calls for his resignation, he waited it out and since then, signed into law a series of long wanted gun safety laws that Dems could FINALLY pass

16. after flipping control of both the statehouse and state senate between the 2 strong 2017 and 2019 cycles. That increased his popularity, but his management of the state through COVID crisis has also helped @GovernorVA navigate past the scandal & his leadership has received

17. good reviews from people on both sides of the aisle in the state (at least from the not crazy people). But in 2019 he was toxic, so @TerryMcAuliffe had to step in- and step in he did, the former Gov was a machine, fundraising & holding events for campaigns all across the

18. Commonwealth, and fooling absolutely no one- at least not me and my buddy @RTDSchapiro, about his plans to run in 2021. Which he should do, bc my guess is his presence will clear a lot of candidates from the field (saving Jeff & I future typing). T-Mac, as Virginians call him

19. will be the presumptive frontrunner-here is where all my progressive VA friends will comment about how he won't be, but as a political scientist w expertise in party nominations, I PROMISE that in the 1st polls, which I assume @WasonCenter (now done by my friend @becky_btru!)

20. will poll in their upcoming annual VA General Assembly Survey. The reason being that most voters are not like us, they will only recognize @TerryMcAuliffe's name out of the list, followed by Herring and Fairfax (who inexplicably is running for office despite credible sexual

21. assault allegations levied against him by a fellow political scientist with a sterling reputation and no incentive to lie. The run seems a cruel thing to subject one's wife and family to, esp bc it is doomed to fail, even if one thinks one is innocent. It also seems risky-

22. like it could provoke more allegations if any are out there. In anycase, Fairfax was also under pressure to resign & I should be clear, from what I understand that there is a segment Dem community/Black comm in VA that stands by the Lt. Gov., believing the allegations were

23. politically motivated.In any case, whether satisfying the family's wishes or against them (and I don't know either way- I am simply providing all the info for you, the reader) one thing I do feel w a high degree of confidence is that Fairfax will not be VA's next

24. gov, and if I was asked for adviceon running, my advice would have been, "oh hell no!" @MarkHerringVA is wise to make the run even if he can't beat out @TerryMcAuliffe this time bc it'll build his name ID for the next run (even 3 terms as AG- 60%+ of VA voters have no idea

25. who he is. @vademocrats talent pool is DEEP, and that's if none of the state's female (fed) House caucus doesn't start looking over that the statehouse (I could see @JenniferWexton making this move & coming from NOVA, her run comes w a natural power base).

On the GOP side- I could see @BarbaraComstock running for VA GOV in 2021, I have a feeling @Scotttaylorva will run. Before Tuesday I'd have said that's about it one better known Republicans, but the results might give state Rs more optimism. Again, I don't think they should have

27. much bc the GOP's brand in VA is terrible, and the electorate is highly educated, so there's no hiding it. The @VirginiaGOP held out for a long time when the populist/nationalist revolt happened, but the last couple of years have been rough. I know I was a fav target when I

28. was at CNU but some of their state legislators/senators (like it was my fault the polling data predicted CORRECTLY their imminent losses!) I'm not sure what has happened since Corey Stewart took over the party, ran his failed bid, and has since left the state. I do know that

29. it fractured the state GOP, that there is, essentially a state version of Never Trump where great people like @Matt4VA (if you care about a healthy democracy in VA y'all should follow Matt Walton!) are working hard to push the state GOP back to normalcy. When we released our

30. Race in the Commonwealth survey, it was a real wake-up call for some VA Republicans in terms of the party's brand under Trump (well not the ones that pushed to silence the messenger, but the other ones!) cnu.edu/wasoncenter/su…

31. The governor's race is one thing, but these House results tell me that if @vademocrats and @DLCC don't
t modernize the strategy to the reforms I've been advocating for (we know exactly what we need to do!) the VA majority can easily be lost, even if a better map is achieved.