Models.
The big analytical winners here are the modelers. If you look at @NateSilver538’s model, for example, this results is at the edge of the fat part of his distribution. @micahcohen
I bought this shirt one day in 2015 on which I had back-to-back meetings with two heads of NSD: the incumbent, John Carlin, at DOJ, and @DavidKris, one of his predecessors, whom I was meeting for a drink at the Hotel Sofitel afterwards.
It was cloudy out, but I decided to walk the several blocks between DOJ and the Sofitel, which is right next to the White House. Mistake. A few blocks into the walk, the sky opened up, there was not a cab in sight, and I and my suit were completely drenched.
The President of the United States has declared this week, "National Character Counts Week." Let's examine his proclamation line by line: whitehouse.gov/presidential-a…
"The foundation of any free and virtuous society is the moral character of its people."
I wholeheartedly agree.
"Personal responsibility, integrity, and the other values which define our unique American spirit underpin our system of self-government and inspire us to continue working toward a more perfect Union. "