Donald Trump’s defeat suggests that the first draft of history—written by pundits, politicians, and political scientists over the past four years—was unduly pessimistic.

My case for optimism about America's future.

[Thread]

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Over the past years, many Americans—including not only the president's supporters, but perhaps especially his opponents—concluded that he has revealed the "true" face of the United States.

But that is far too simple.
Trump caused staggering suffering and subjected the country’s democratic institutions to a frightening test.

But today, America accomplished a rare feat: to defeat an authoritarian populist at the polls.

This is a testament to the strength of the country's people institutions.
Pundits kept writing Joe Biden off as an anachronism. But it turns out that he is very much in tune with this historical moment.

Eschewing the zero-sum terms of our culture war, he alone gave the nation what it longed for: neither woke nor anti-woke, he is, simply, decent.
For the past four years, it became very fashionable to claim that Donald Trump became president thanks to his racism.

But while racism helped him win the primaries in 2016, the best evidence now suggests that it always harmed his standing with the American public at large.
Just one example:

When voters were asked about Trump’s job performance during his last year in office, they gave him comparatively good marks on the economy and even his handling of the coronavirus.

The issue on which he did, by far, the least well was race.
Over the past four years, Trump actually made gains among African Americans and, especially, Latinos.

If he lost anyway, it is in part because he was abandoned by a significant number of white voters who simply had enough of him.

The American electorate is depolarizing by race.
America stopped an authoritarian populist from destroying our democratic institutions. We came together in unprecedented numbers to show that Trump is not the true face of this country.

After four years of dread and shame, this is a moment for hope and pride.

[End.]

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More from @Yascha_Mounk

8 Nov
"We need healing, yes, but not just from Trump and his direct actions. We must heal from what he has brought out in all of us."

What does Trump's defeat tell us about America? Read answers by some of the country's leading thinkers @JoinPersuasion.

Thread.persuasion.community/p/what-bidens-…
"To cultivate a more perfect union, let’s dispense with proving our perfection and humbly focus on building our union.

I’ll contribute by teaching young Americans a brave new leadership skill—public listening. I’d love to hear how you’ll help to build the union."

@IrshadManji
"The real lesson is that progressive elites have become increasingly out of touch with the sensibilities of working-class Americans of all backgrounds.

This blindspot opened a vacuum for an authoritarian populist with no regard for the norms of liberal democracy."

@coldxman
Read 9 tweets
6 Nov
Ted Cruz is now on Fox News claiming that election officials in Philadelphia are "lawless," trying to conceal what's going on in order to potentially steal the election.

Utterly irresponsible.
"I'm frustrated that every time they close the doors and shut off the lights, they miraculously find more Democratic votes."

Cruz is angry, ranty, shouty.

Nearly like he's auditioning to replace Trump.
The contrast between highly responsible news anchors like Chris Wallace and completely irresponsible pundits like Tucker and Hannity is really astounding.

Right now, the divide between the reality-based community and Trump's fantasy world runs straight through Fox News.
Read 5 tweets
5 Nov
Enough of the doom and gloom.

Incumbent presidents nearly always win reelection. Authoritarian populists nearly always win reelection.

Neither seems to be happening right now.

I'm starting to feel pretty damn good about America today.
Is this the grand univocal rejection of Trumpism many of us hoped for? No.

But the United States is doing better than Poland, Hungary, Turkey, India and so many other countries that were in a similar predicament.

It's time to take yes for an answer!
Why am I so much more optimistic today? Because of my baseline.

I've been arguing for years that populists have broad support and are a grave threat to democracy around the world. The fight will go on after today. That shouldn't be surprising.

But we just won a giant battle.
Read 4 tweets
3 Nov
Woke up to a beautiful sunrise today.

Joe Biden is likely to win. The nightmare of the Trump years could be about to end. I’m feeling optimistic.

But it would be a mistake to count Trump out. So what might the electoral map look like if he wins? Here’s two scenarios.

[Thread]
Every poll makes assumptions about turnout and demographics. And each year, different pollsters tend to make similar assumptions.

A few of these have me especially worried.
1)

Polls show a big shift towards Biden among white and older voters.

Perhaps they are overstating the shift? Or perhaps turnout among the white working-class once again shatters expectations?

Either way, Trump could win the Midwest, and the map would look similar to 2016. Image
Read 6 tweets
2 Nov
Four years ago, I was more pessimistic than most: I never assumed the institutions would contain Trump.

Now, I'm more optimistic than many: If Biden wins, we are likely to have a relatively peaceful transition of power.

My latest @JoinPersuasion.

THREAD persuasion.community/p/yascha-mounk…
It’s now difficult to remember how outlandish the position that "established" democracies could come under threat once was.

When Roberto Foa and I first showed a famous mentor our paper on deconsolidation, he strongly disagreed with the idea that democracy might be in danger.
But now, pessimism has become fashionable:

Pundits routinely warn of an impending civil war or worry that Donald Trump will carry out a putsch.

Here’s why that’s unlikely.
Read 12 tweets
31 Oct
Donald Trump's performance on Covid has been terrible, and America has suffered deeply.

It is now also clear, though, that Europe is not doing significantly better.

Is this because:

1) European political leadership is just as bad?

2) Leadership doesn't matter that much?

3) ?
For those doubting the empirical premise:

Europe currently has way more cases and recent deaths than the U.S. Its cumulative deaths remain lower, but the gap is quickly closing.

(Of course, this may change again in a few months. But for now, that's where we stand. Via @ft.)
Some of the best answers:

1) Higher population density in Europe.

2) *Some* European governments very bad.

3) Winter wave hit earlier in Europe; U.S. will do worse in long-run.

All plausible. But eight months into this pandemic, some epistemic humility would behoove us all.
Read 4 tweets

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