Alex Profile picture
7 Nov, 5 tweets, 2 min read
You are selling into the hands of me. Thank you.
Was hoping for a dip as $BTC & $ETH had finally gotten frothy in the last 36H (chart shows $BTC basis).

Increased BTC & ETH exposure and opened YFI REN ZEC & KP3R longs. This is my trading stack. I don't trade $BTC spot anymore, just hold it. That bullish I am. Image
Expecting a strong week and expect alt betas back >1. See this small correction as healthy. Image
KP3R ain't really trading BTW. It's a uniswap coin. No risk management possible. Just put a small amount to it and wait for it to move >20% in your favor. Image
$ZEC has an upcoming halving and expect it to generate a buzz. $YFI is not a buy and hold anymore but a great trading asset. It's volatility is unparalleled. As I said, expect alt betas to remain above 1, i.e. move in line with $BTC and $ETH, but more.

nicehash.com/countdown/ZEC-…

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More from @classicmacro

6 Nov
Bitcoin is trading election results. It is now a macro asset. It responds to macro events. Trends ensuing from elections have long staying power. Best to ignore resistance levels and be patient. If it corrects, too bad, very likely it will be only temporary. Opinion not advice.
The key $BTC driver until Jan/5 will likely be the Georgia Senate election run-off, that would determine if Democrats get to control the senate. If they do, hello massive spending and currency debasament. If they don't, we get a stronger dollar. Bitcoin is trading that.
I think Trump's contesting of the elections will represent noise as far as markets are concerned. For those who disagree, this here likely is an excellent spot to sell some $BTC. That won't be me.
Read 4 tweets
5 Nov
Seems Trump won't concede until the last minute, after making every vote get recounted. We are looking at this lasting until December.
Trump claims widespread electoral fraud took place. I'd guess odds of that are in the 0%-3% range. Seems he and his close circle believe in it. He will push this to the end.
No. Trump does not have the support of the military for taking authoritarian measures, and he is fast losing support of the GOP. For as long as he doesn't overturn results at court, this is just noise.

Read 4 tweets
5 Nov
$BTC 20K now doable in 2020

25K-30K in 2021, all possible. Going to see a heavy string of positive bitcoin headlines next year.
This is nothihg alike 2017. Some minor euphoria today. Can see that in funding metrics. But $BTC is now trading like a macro asset, not a retail fantasy.

Read 4 tweets
5 Nov
This is how ridiculous the Trump situation is now.

FTX contract back up to 0.15. Looks like Biden won't be flipping GA. Odds are rich. Say Trump has 5% chance of flipping NV, 30% of stopping PA count, and 5% of winning a WI recount. That would give him 3% chance of winning.
The math is simple. To win Trump would need two things:

#1 Win PA
#2 Win another state; only realistic possiblities are NV & WI

Probabiity of winning = P (PA) * (P(NV) + P(WI))

Input your own probabilities to determine if Trump odds are now rich, or cheap, or fairly priced.
Had missed AZ. That would leave four paths to the presidency:

PA+NV
PA+WI
PA+AZ
AZ+WI (tie, where Trump wins)

Assume odds fairly priced => market could be pricing the following:

PA: 20%
WI: 5%
AZ: 50%
NV: 5%

20% * (5%+5%+50%) + 50% * 5% = 14.5%

Read 4 tweets
4 Nov
Twitter censoring Trump again. Totally unacceptable. This can't continue, they should pay for it.
"Votes cannot be cast after the Polls are closed"

A mail-in vote can't be postmarked after election day.

You can disargee with his statement about stealing the election - that's an incendiary statement, you don't get to censor statement because you don't like them.
Censoring things you disagree with is not the way. If too sensitive or emotional, please kindly unfollow.
Read 4 tweets
4 Nov
If Biden wins Florida likely game over for Trump.
Trump just halved Biden's lead in percentage terms.

Trump up in Florida now. Look at the long bond how it popped. All you is the long bond. $ZB
Read 15 tweets

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