Now that Joe Biden is president & the EU has failed again, the West is open to learn how to dance.
Here's how they should do it.
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One of the main issues in managing the #coronavirus is that there are so many things to do that govs don't know what they should or shouldn't do. It's simple.
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There are 4 layers of defense against #COVID19 1. Keep infections out 2. When they do come in, prevent them from meeting others 3. When they do meet others, prevent them from infecting them 4. When that happens, identify and neutralize those infections
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Some ppl that the Swiss Cheese Strategy, and it's an apt metaphor. Each layer is like a slice of holed cheese: imperfect, with holes. But the more slices you pile up, the more holes you cover, and the more you can stop the virus.
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So to stop the virus, you need a mechanism to stop as many of them from coming in, for as little as possible. I call these mechanisms Fences nytimes.com/interactive/20…
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2. Social Bubbles: Abstain from meeting other ppl
Simple: If you don't meet ppl, you don't get infected.
Problem: It's really nice to meet people. And we consume when we do, so we create jobs.
Social bubbles include measures like lockdowns, curfews, business closures...
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Lockdowns are expensive. They should be avoided as much as possible, and only used if the situation is out of control and the community has a plan to dance.
I leave this here so that I have a go-to tweet for every time doomyellers accuse me of being a lockdown apologist
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3. Contrafection: How to reduce contagiousness when ppl do meet.
I created a word for this precise concept because none exists. I used the same structure as
Contraception ➡️ Contra-Conception
Contrafection ➡️ Contra-Infection
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Whereas Layer 2 is super expensive, Layer 3 is very cheap. It's also made up of smaller layers that add up to each other and, together, can dramatically reduce the epidemic.
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4. Test–Trace–Isolate: Identify a neutralize infections.
Ppl focus so much on testing and contract tracing that they forget that's just the intelligence. The action comes when you actually isolate or quarantine ppl. And if you don't enforce that, ppl won't do it.
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The cool thing is that not only govs can do this. In fact, any community can apply the same defense.
Eg, a uni campus can test & quarantine students on arrival (layer 1), split classes into teams (layer 2), have classes outdoors and wear masks (layer 3) & sewage tests (layer 4)
That's it.
With this framework, I hope we can all track exactly everything that needs to be done and keep our politicians and community leaders accountable.
Theory on the US urban–rural divide in voting for Dems vs GOP:
Urbanites interact with a lot of different strangers all the time. That means they want regulations to address the new coordination pbms that constantly emerge.
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They also see +ppl different from them all the time, so they empathize with their plights, and are + interested in helping them.
These 2 facts mean they want + regulation & +care of minorities.
Hence +demand for regulation and social justice
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Conversely, rural dwellers tend to interact with mostly the same social circles, usually of the same ethnic group, so they don’t experience other groups’ plights, and don’t empathize with them.
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Tertiary effect of the #coronavirus: International tax competition between countries
As remote work becomes the norm, ppl & businesses will relocate to cheaper places. Those w/ lower taxes will have an edge.
Countries / regions will want to attract these remote ppl & biz, and will lower taxes for them. Similar schemes already exist in Italy, Spain, Portugal, Puerto Rico...
But now with + remote & untethered, the incentive is stronger
The + taxes go down, the stronger the incentive to move, so the + ppl will, the bigger the price will be for regions lowering taxes, and the + taxes will go down.
Countries & regions will compete tooth & nail for them. Taxes will lower everywhere.
This is the passage with the details of the measures.
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I wrote a long article about Sweden's failed approach back in June, hoping this could be avoided. Unfortunately, people looked at the Summer recess in caseloads as a sign that the strategy had been successful.
Originally, the article "The Hammer and the Dance" was called "The Lockdown and the Release".
In this email, I explained what I was thinking for the article to a few volunteers who wanted to help
Originally, H&D was originally the name of just one section in the article. I also played with other names, like "Leaders, Buy Us Time" or "The Trigger and the Release".
As I was still debating with the volunteers how to name the article, @shishirmehrotra suggested that it should definitely be H&D. I don't think the article would have stuck as much if I hadn't followed his advice. It shows the serendipity of these things.
Again:
NO COUNTRY HAS STOPPED THE VIRUS WITHOUT CONTROLLING ITS BORDERS
On June 25th, I alerted the EU that their internal border openings due on July 2nd were crazy. There would be a 2nd wave from ppl traveling from one country to the other.[1/
Because they — and other Western countries — weren't paying attention, I wrote a 2nd article with the @NYtimes, on September 14th, going in depth into Fences, the border controls that are necessary to stop the virus.
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