As I've cautioned before, the Benford's Law analysis is *suggestive* of needing an investigation, and is routinely used to back up conclusions -- however, we should be *careful* not to push it too far.

Like stressed and melting beams in an imploding skyscraper, it is just too...

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Theodosius Ambrosius

@thetrollbar

9 Nov

My EC call.

MI and WI probably had lots of fraud, but may be a moot point. NV GA AZ NC PA would deliver a 2nd term to Trump in the EC, easily.
- Google is giving *all* these states to Biden, except NC soft to Trump
- Wikipedia agrees except hasn't called NV, GA, NC at right now

The 'Biden won all of WI, MI, PA' narrative is strong but false.

I suspect Trump has PA after SCOTUS throws out post 8pm ballots, maybe MI.

Probably not WI but that is not certain.

I call Trump at 279 Voats.

What's the weak link in my optimism? GA. I called that as a pain point in 2016 and it has done nothing to allay them.

We shall see what we shall see.

Appointment in Samarra, 12/14.

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Theodosius Ambrosius

@thetrollbar

9 Nov

@linuxhippie

History. When 9/11 occurred, several states issued state-wide State of Emergency orders.

Jeb Bush took a 'Hurricane Emergency' template and added an interesting clause: Enough with the hanging chad stuff already.

Large baseline for analysis given N hurricanes/yr

.@linuxhippie

The text of such orders (it was a word document template) tends to be preserved forever. Even in 2000 to now.

The punctuation for 'Therefore be it resolved' stuff is pretty strict too.

There was a dangling semi-colon indicating the final 'Whereas' clause had been deleted and the punctuation never fixed.

Always wondered what the 'last reason' they decided not to run with was.

Read 4 tweets

Theodosius Ambrosius

@thetrollbar

9 Nov

It's time to have a National Conversation about Dementia.

Being ruled by a man with Dementia is like being ruled by an AI.

Humans have souls, intelligence, and intellect, but we are also part mechanism.

Behaviour is, to a large extent, a pre-programmed Event-Reponse Table...

As dementia progresses, you see the underlying 'machine' and programming (and occasionally the machine elves)... more and more.

The shaping and nuance -- the divinity that shapes our ends -- looks more and more like the chunky, rough-hewn ends of a faggot.

Nice metaphor, that..

The 'person' is still there, but more and more, you are looking at an Android...

A pre-trained machine, with basic behavioural patterns, and less 'human' control.

A BROKEN robot.

Read 4 tweets

Theodosius Ambrosius

@thetrollbar

8 Nov

As seen somewhere on the web.

Remember, we don't need to keep lists. We just need to tell you we don't have jumper cables.

'I was leaving a bar last night and I saw some dyke looking bitch who couldn't get her car started because her battery was dead.

'I was about to offer to help until I noticed a Biden/Harris bumper sticker.

'I told her that I didn't have any cables. I carry cables and a jump starter in both of my vehicles Am I a meanie?

'Normally, I'm more than willing to help people out, but I'm not feeling too kindly towards commie trash these days.'

Microaggression starts with 12V batteries.

Read 6 tweets

Theodosius Ambrosius

@thetrollbar

8 Nov

To be clear, in terms of 'prognostication', I consider it 'likely' but not 'almost certain' or 'certain' that Trump will in fact be seated, after legal challenges and an EC vote.

But any prediction about the future is a *Hypothesis* that requires *Evdence* for it, and a plausible train of *Events*.

Remember our notation at this site[1] -- H for hypothesis, E for events, E* for Evidence, all with probabilities attached.

[1]: Notation from Tecuci et al, _Intelligence Analysis as Discovery of Evidence, Hypotheses, and Arguments_

Discussed at the forum:

Previous Dissent • Cognitive Assistants in Intelligence Analysis

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