Thread by @thetrollbar

My EC call.

MI and WI probably had lots of fraud, but may be a moot point. NV GA AZ NC PA would deliver a 2nd term to Trump in the EC, easily.
- Google is giving *all* these states to Biden, except NC soft to Trump
- Wikipedia agrees except hasn't called NV, GA, NC at right now

The 'Biden won all of WI, MI, PA' narrative is strong but false.

I suspect Trump has PA after SCOTUS throws out post 8pm ballots, maybe MI.

Probably not WI but that is not certain.

I call Trump at 279 Voats.

What's the weak link in my optimism? GA. I called that as a pain point in 2016 and it has done nothing to allay them.

We shall see what we shall see.

Appointment in Samarra, 12/14.

This election is likely to come down to which parties control which state legislatures, and a SCOTUS assist.

There is more substance to the issues than 2000 Bush v Gore.

Remember Scalia. Eonia i mnimi.

One of NV, MI, WI need to be 'flipped' from the Marxist Scum Media consensus.

Barr is in NV, doubtless looking at Californians maintaining a residence in NV for tax evasion purposes, and committing a double fraud by voting in a state they are only pretend resident in.

My 2016 comment on GA vuln:

'- the remaining bias is ordered north to south. Trump is in trouble in the South and his greatest vulnerabilities are TX, GA, AZ. FL and NC are the tipping point. '

FL was not part of that this year because Cubans.

'Fortunately, in this election gasoline prices are high in the right places (and TX red enough not to matter).'

Quoted here: salo-forum.com/index.php?thre…

Critical Assumption Check:

- the existing media map is largely correct EXCEPT as noted

- GA and AZ will in fact end in the Trump column (likely)

- PA will go to SCOTUS, which will decide for Trump (very likely)

con't

- NC will remain in the Trump column (likely)

- Trump will manage to flip one of NV, MI, WI (likely put puts EC at risk if MI or WI)

- The EC will in fact meet and operate with full information (likely)

- Faithless electors won't bork EC (very likely)

cont

If one of those assumptions fails, then Trump might *possibly* still be elected, but it would take wins in MI or WI after court battles (possible), or else a win in the House of Representatives (likely)

/END

Like Columbo, one last thing:

- progression for Trump from easy to hard *should* be AZ GA (NC) NV PA MI WI

- any 'losses' left of PA are surprising and need 'splainin'

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