As I've cautioned before, the Benford's Law analysis is *suggestive* of needing an investigation, and is routinely used to back up conclusions -- however, we should be *careful* not to push it too far.
Like stressed and melting beams in an imploding skyscraper, it is just too...
.. easy to kick up dust. These arguments will continue (as they did with the statistics of Bush/Gore) until August 2021 and then some still won't be convinced.
We don't have time for this -- the threat profile is now, not next August.
People who do want to do this analysis for real should be looking at precinct level stats, not county or state aggregates. At least county, if you are rushed for time.
Meanwhile, we have an existential attack to fight off. Doesn't mean that pursuit of the Truth must halt.
If the Marxists win, as they did with Bush and Obama, then they will craft an official Narrative, enforce it with loss of status or credentials for dissenters, and move on.
See also, the Climate idiocy. That's how it works in a n oppressive regime. No dissent allowed.
And you can bet exactly 98.7% of Statisticians who want to remain employed will tow the party line on very specific applications of Benford's law to certain data.
CTs will lose again. By fiat.
Hint: it doesn't matter what the conclusions of 'scientific research' are, if competing hypotheses cannot be published, but confirming ones are always published.
See andrewgelman.com on Sociology and Psychology, and their statistical significance as published.
Prussian Gymnasium Wissenschaft is in the cross-hairs, this Colour Revolution.
MI and WI probably had lots of fraud, but may be a moot point. NV GA AZ NC PA would deliver a 2nd term to Trump in the EC, easily.
- Google is giving *all* these states to Biden, except NC soft to Trump
- Wikipedia agrees except hasn't called NV, GA, NC at right now
The 'Biden won all of WI, MI, PA' narrative is strong but false.
I suspect Trump has PA after SCOTUS throws out post 8pm ballots, maybe MI.
Probably not WI but that is not certain.
I call Trump at 279 Voats.
What's the weak link in my optimism? GA. I called that as a pain point in 2016 and it has done nothing to allay them.
To be clear, in terms of 'prognostication', I consider it 'likely' but not 'almost certain' or 'certain' that Trump will in fact be seated, after legal challenges and an EC vote.
But any prediction about the future is a *Hypothesis* that requires *Evdence* for it, and a plausible train of *Events*.
Remember our notation at this site[1] -- H for hypothesis, E for events, E* for Evidence, all with probabilities attached.
[1]: Notation from Tecuci et al, _Intelligence Analysis as Discovery of Evidence, Hypotheses, and Arguments_
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