Short thread: The chair of the Society of Homeopaths is spreading anti-vaccine propaganda. But that really shouldn't surprise anyone. Here's why, and why pseudoscience is far from harmless (1/n) dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7…
Homeopathy is a long discredited pseudoscience, rooted in both medically debunked vitalism, its central "like-cures-like" / "extreme dilutions make effects stronger" tenets easily disproved by basic physics. I've been harping on about it too long! (2/n) onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111….
..now, in effect, when you buy homeopathy products, you are effectively buying inert sugar pills. But, some argue, what's the harm? I mean, if it makes you feel better, than what's the big deal? They may even mention the extraordinary power of the placebo effect (3/n)
..well first, as @david_colquhoun will explain, the placebo effect isn't especially strong at all and statistical regression to the mean explains much more of the perceived benefit, but that's not my main objection: the real harm is more subtle but far more damaging (4/n)
The first objection is practical - most of the things one would take homeopathy for are trivial, & would improve themselves. But in cases where more serious intervention is vital, homeopaths frequently miss it, or even advise against real effective treatment, delaying help (5/n)
This can and does kill people, by causing delay or rejection of effective therapy, or when worrying medical conditions are missed. For just a sampling of this, you can look here - - but bas as it is, that's not the worst harm at all..(6/n) whatstheharm.net/homeopathy.html
The real harm is that by there is no way to accept pseudoscience or pseudomedicine without rejecting reality. If you truly believe that alternative medicine works, then you have to explain away why modern science does not support it. That's where things go very wrong... (7/n)
So returning to the anti-vaccine movement / alternative medicine. It is entirely unsurprising purveyors of alt-med reject much modern medicine: it undermines their belief. @EdzardErnst found 83% of homeopaths rejected vaccination, which I write about in The Irrational Ape (8/n)
Since the dawn of COVID-19, alt-med figures (especially homeopaths) have been prominent in organising Anti-mask protests around the world. To take a local example, the Dublin anti-mask protest was arranged by a homeopath but this is common worldwide (9/n) irishtimes.com/news/ireland/i…
..None of this should surprise us - this is just WV Quine's "Web of Belief" again (see appended tweet) - to accept homeopathy works in spite of the evidence against it, you have to reject mainstream medicine - especially vaccination. (10/n)
..remember a few years ago when Andrew Wakefield, that absolute fraud, was feted in London? Yeah that was a bunch of Homeopaths that invited him over - I didn't precisely hold back when asked for comment but the homeopaths in questions were as bad thetimes.co.uk/article/mmr-fr… (11/n)
In July, @EdzardErnst wrote this on SoH too. In conclusion, we need to stop being surprised when we see overlap between alt-med and anti-vaccine / anti-mask stuff, because they all pivot on the same, tired rejection of science. Fin. 12/12, n = 12 edzardernst.com/2020/07/the-uk…

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More from @drg1985

22 Oct
Ah no - James Randi has died, aged 92. Sad, but a hell of a life - from touring with @alicecooper to besting Houdini, & exposing fraud. This elven man cast a long shadow - my favourite Randi story is how he got a Nature paper (!) (1/n) nytimes.com/2020/10/21/obi…
In 1988, immunologist Jacques Benveniste made an huge claim: homeopathy, long thought physically impossible, was real. If so, everything we knew about physical science would have to be rewritten. The seemingly strong result was a dilemma for editor of @nature, John Maddox (2/n)
Maddox decided to publish the paper, with an unusual caveat - that it would be independently validated by a group of special investigators. A team skilled at detecting fraud and self-delusion. And crucial to this mix? James Randi, as I write in "The Irrational Ape"... (3/n)
Read 11 tweets
21 Sep
Hi @JuliaHB1 - your claim here is highly misleading, and misunderstands #CovidTesting. I'll try explain why: firstly, the sensitivity of PCR #COVID19 test is ~98%, specificity 98.9%. Now, false positives & negative rates depend on prevalence of COVID in test population... (1/n)
...we can simulate this as prevalence changes, like I just did here, showing test PPV (chances a positive is a true positive) and NPV (chances a negative result is true negative) as prevalence increases. At your 5% prevalence, a positive test is 82% likely to be correct (2/n)
..but the impressive part is the NPV: this is close to 100%, and tells us that a negative result is, in general, highly reliable (with some caveats). That is really important to know, as it means we can have confidence in negative results. That's extremely important! (3/n)
Read 6 tweets
10 Sep
Unbelievable - Mark Zuckerberg refuses to remove #vaccine disinformation, because he thinks we should find media that reflects our opinion. That's precisely the problem - we're entitled to our own opinion, not our own facts. @Facebook don't care

theguardian.com/technology/202…
... seriously, this is disingenuous. We as a species as not information-neutral - we are FAR more prone to believe repeated assertions (illusory truth effect), & more affected by emotive falsehood than mundane truth. Groups from anti-vaccine to #QANONS know this, so do @Facebook
..we also know exposure to anti-vaccine conspiracy theory makes parents vaccine hesitant (h/t @DrDanielJolley et al) AND Facebook a primary vector of this, which has been causing harm for years. @Facebook know this - they just see all engagement as profitable & don't give a damn
Read 4 tweets
20 Mar
Yesterday Irish supreme court upheld "absolute confidence" bar on negative results from #CervicalCheck - by chance, preprint by @donalb5, @CiaranORiain, & several others on false positives / negatives just dropped. So let me explain why most scientists & docs unhappy (1/n)
First off, the idea behind screening is that you cast a wide net, and over a population, you catch some warning signs before they become a problem. The net is inherently imperfect - but on AVERAGE it saves lives. So what defines a test's reliability? These things (2/n)
So what do you want in an ideal screen? Some test with high sensitivity (correctly identifies the thing) and high specificity (doesn't accidentally say the thing is there when it's not). But prevalence matters too - take LBC, the standard modality. (3/n)
Read 12 tweets
18 Mar
Being asked frequently about whether #coronavirus will make anti-vaccine activists change their mind on vaccination. Seems logical, right? Alas, no - they're claiming the virus is a hoax, & pushing 'cures' like vitamin C - which is precisely what I'd expect. Thread on why (1/n)
The positions anti-vaxxers are taking in light of #COVID19 seem bizarre, but it's important to realise that anti-vaccine beliefs are by definition already conspiratorial - you'd have to accept all scientists / doctors are lying to you for some reason (2/n)
..this is crux of the issue. Vaccine denialism isn't a logical position; it's IDEOLOGICAL one. It's a form of motivated reasoning - start with a conclusion ("vaccines are bad") and then bend reality to try & justify that belief. Here's a little from #IrrationalApe on it (3/n)
Read 9 tweets
23 Dec 19
Joseph Mercola runs an empire that hawks snake-oil, denigrates conventional medicine, & has given over $2.9 million dollars to anti-vaccine activism. And he epitomises precisely how vulnerable we are to falsehoods, & the consequences. A thread 1/n washingtonpost.com/investigations…
..for context, Joseph Mercola runs mercola dot com. A vocal proponent of alternative medicine, Mercola pushes medical disinformation at an alarming rate. Among his myriad claims

1. Cancer is a fungus
2. Vaccines cause illness
3. HIV isn't cause of AIDS

and such nonsense. 2/n
..and yet, Mercola controls a media empire. His website is one of the most popular in the world, he's had 2 NYT bestselling books (1st a dodgy diet one) & the other alleging bird flu was a medical industry hoax. He's a frequent guest on Dr Oz. He made $7 million in 2010 alone 3/n
Read 16 tweets

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