Thread by @MacAndrews

Tbilisi November 8 protests thread.

Its almost like we are running out of calendar days in November. So many of them are associated with riots, revolution, police brutality, crowd dispersing. #Gvote2020 #Gvote

Right..so I am not a big fan of the boycott of parliament and subsequent demonstrations. But I guess if you choose to boycott, it doesn't hurt to couple that with an impressive rally to get message across. 2 conditions: COVID19 guidelines; Your goal is negotiations
#gvote

I have seen far too many demonstrations in Tbilisi, more peaceful, less peaceful, crowded, less crowded, national, local. This one was generously speaking an average protest by Georgian standards. Size wise. You can say its down to COVID19. People didn't socially distance much

Generally when we say peaceful demonstration, its not entirely peaceful. Never is. I watched 2003 'bloodless' revolution and had seen few busted foreheads of policemen from early confrontations on 23NOV03. But it was largely peaceful, sure and nobody died. Great for revolution

So yesterday was not as peaceful as many say. There is some footage on MIA timeline to show it.

https://twitter.com/MIAofGeorgia/status/1325538886148362242?s=20

But it was largely peaceful and generally if you ask me a response wasn't necessary. At least at that point.

Its wrong to say Georgia is a "dictatorship" and call "usurper" this "kremlin stooge" that to justify more violence or downplaying some of it. The question is - where do you draw the line? Comparing Georgia to Belarus, Hong Kong or other places is not going to convince me.

Of course majority of the protesters are not there for violence,majority from what I understand left home after that day time rally anyway. Its some in the UNM and/or EG wing of opposition that are interested in confrontation. You don't have it on day 1, then there is no day 2

UNM wants a revolution and change of government. They are not really interested in counting votes. EG have massively underperformed and whatever the count is they are not getting more than 7-8 people into the parliament. Clearly that is not enough for them.

Having said that, there are also groups of youngsters within smaller parties, who clearly don't see a problem in some violence. They want more confrontations, they think of tactics - lasers, frequent change of location to tire riot police etc. Well researched

So Girchi, EG and others need to manage those groups within their supporters. They need to take responsibility on this. This is damaging everyone, including their own political chances in long term. This folks clearly haven't lived in UNM period thinking this is as bad as it gets

Also, there were slogans about picketing to the point of 'suffocation' the CEC building, 'lift the building in the air' by some leaders of opposition. Just slogans, emotional slogans. But sometimes its what it takes.

Now about Georgian Dream. They never learn, they never learn. They did learn not to use rubber bullets this time (great!). But they really didn't make the optics of this all more favorable to themselves. It was not as bad as JUN19, but it was still heavy handed- water and gas(?)

They should've let it play out. If needed conceded more damage,but ultimately kept the cool.They should get Kobakhidze off the TV screens- he is the face of hypocrisy and without any ability to read the room. I know no matter who speaks for GD you will have critics, but not him!

Today still in no mood of writing all this.
I am in favor of constructive dialogue, perhaps diplomats could facilitate it - as Georgians don't seem to agree on anything themselves. I don't see how opposition is gaining leverage now.

I don't see how new elections will help resolve the political crisis. New vote count will be even more toxic, even more partisan. It will be live streamed by every single smartphone inside every single election commission - this leads to nowhere.

All this comes down to one thing in my view. Most important thing. Free and independent TV channel. Or rather lack of it it. Fox news has been a great excuse to a lot of Georgian channels to adopt 'as long as you are commercial TV station you can be bias" approach.

And it has gone from bad to worse. There are no standards, no measured opinions, not even guests from rival camps visit each other's stations. Another GD mistake - they should at least go to Formula for example to get there message across. Whatever the message is.

People keep living in their bubbles. As a result opposition voters end up believing there is not a single person in the country who has voted for GD. Those who have have done so for a financial favors. Partially true, but this will not change in a day when GD is gone.

Let's see what happens. I would like to see negotiations. Perhaps postpone the date of the run offs. May be get a new CEC head, even though it will still be difficult to find someone of everybody's liking in this climate. But at least get someone who can do algebra

I had threads about my thoughts on election results last week. I'm not a GD supporter or voter. I know its a bit of devil's advocate thread, but more we put ourselves in others' shoes, closer to consensus we will be.

Here is thread (1)

https://twitter.com/MacAndrews/status/1323200463773323266

and thread (2)

https://twitter.com/MacAndrews/status/1323270021389426688

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