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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

10 Nov

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@realmoney
My Six Month Tactical Approach to the Markets Remains The Same

On October 22nd I outlined, "Some Investment Themes to Consider Over the Next Few Months."

Let's revisit the column:

As you map out your strategy for year-end and for 2021, here are some themes to

consider:

* Short Fixed Income: Bonds are among the most risky and least efficiently priced asset classes extant. The 10 year note yield is about to break to the upside (of its 200 day moving average) - the 30 year yield already has. A large, Democratic-led February stimulus

package could be a catalyst for the 10 year US note to climb over 1% in the near term. (I would note that TLT peaked at $172 in early August and is now trading at $155)

* Short Homebuilders: The sector is negatively influenced by the rate of change in bond yields. With mortgage

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

10 Nov

@realmoney

Coming up on @realmoney

The Thunder in South Florida Yesterday Was Not the Bad Weather - It Was The Sound of the Market's Pivot From Growth To Value
* Yesterday may have represented a classic "sell on the good news"
* Monday was also an example why unemotional

trading/investing is so important
* Some stocks and sectors had a great year yesterday
* While many were cheering about the vaccine news, I was waiting to sell (with red tickets in hand)
* On Monday I moved from large net long to small net short - it was the biggest daily

@jimcramer

swing in my aggregate net exposure in years
* Given the market's pivot, it may be time to consider a Berkshire Hathaway long @jimcramer @tomkeene @SquawkCNBC @CNBCFastMoney @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick @SquawkCNBC @CNBCFastMoney @RiskReversal @ScottWapnerCNBC

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

9 Nov

@realmoney

Important (at least to me!)... on @realmoney
A Classic Sell On The News?
* It might have been!
* My actions today were as extreme (going from large net long in exposure to small net short) as in any one trading session in several years
* More on "Group Stink"
The comfort of

the crowd, herd and consensus, as I noted in this morning's opening missive,"The Rip Your Face Apart Rally and Mother of All Short Squeezes Will Likely Continue - 'Get It While You Can'" realmoney.thestreet.com/dougs-daily-di… often produces the foul odor of "Group Stink."

" It takes nothing

to join the crowd. It takes everything to stand alone, and to buy when others are selling, and sell when others are buying."

I was struck by the near unanimity on FIN TV - with the DJIA exploding by over 1600 points this morning - that the market now has a "green light" to

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

9 Nov

@realmoney

On @realmoney
dougie kass • a few seconds ago
The vaccine news will likely take the markets to new highs. cnbc.com/2020/1...
My opening missive already was written and with editors earlier this morning.
But here are some addendums and updates:
1. Short Bonds ($TLT)

2. Look for a strong pivot away from growth and towards value today
3. Don't be fearful of buying lagging value stocks - groups like banks who are asset and rate sensitive (the magnitude of the rise could surprise many)
4. Don't be fearful of shorting market leading growth

stocks - $ZM, $CVNA, $SQ and $AAPL are my candidates
5. Amazon and Google should be laggards (I own both and have so for some time) $AMZN $GOOGL
6. A pairs trade - $SPY long/$QQQ short - should prosper

Dougie

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

8 Nov

@realmoney

From @realmoney on Thursday:
In my Diary and, again in yesterday's Bloomberg interview, I posited that stocks could rally spectacularly over the near term:
* With the perception, in part, of election uncertainty and the quicker spread of Covid-19, market participants have

been positioned defensively and cautiously.
* We have exited the weakest period of the calendar (August to October) and are entering a two month timeframe in which stocks are seasonally strong.
* We are ever closer to vaccine and therapeutic advances by the medical and

scientific communities.
* Should the market's rally continue, the evolving market structure change - in which the market is dominated by products and strategies that follow and chase price and price momentum - could catapult the markets higher rather swiftly. Remember, in risk

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

6 Nov

@realmoney

#1 Surprise @realmoney "15 Surprises for 2020" (written 11 months ago!):

*Senator Biden also wins a surprisingly large majority in the electoral college (304 to 234).
* After the election, there are violent demonstrations around the country by Trump supporters in mid- to late-

November. Trump does little to squash or calm down the protests and instead holds a number of rallies against Democrats and the election results.
* In December, 2020, President Trump announces his plans to launch Trump TV. Sean Hannity leaves Fox News - assuming a duel role as

@jimcramer

CEO of Trump TV as well as the station's chief commentator. Rush Limbaugh and several Fox News commentators join Trump TV. @jimcramer @tomkeene @cnbcfastmoney @SquawkCNBC @business @lizclaman @MelissaLeeCNBC @saraeisen @andrewrsorkin @beckyquick @terranovajoe @squawkjoe

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