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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

11 Nov

To Josh Brown - Totally and respectfully disagree.
To begin with, banks have extraordinary low/zero cost deposit bases (trillion dollar gain y/o/y) that will increase in value dramatically as interest rates inevitably rise. The largest banks, like $JPM,

have spent many billions of dollars to advance their technological advantage. They are benefitting from market share gains from non US (esp. European banks) who are the "walking dead." Despite record provisioning and zero interest rates, the large banks will increase

@WilfredFrost

their tangible net worth this year over 2019. Banks have large excess capital positions, historically high liquidity - in the fullness of time they will be able to buyback stock (accretively). Many more reasons - just touched the iceberg. @WilfredFrost @SaraEisen

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

10 Nov

@realmoney

@realmoney
My Six Month Tactical Approach to the Markets Remains The Same

On October 22nd I outlined, "Some Investment Themes to Consider Over the Next Few Months."

Let's revisit the column:

As you map out your strategy for year-end and for 2021, here are some themes to

consider:

* Short Fixed Income: Bonds are among the most risky and least efficiently priced asset classes extant. The 10 year note yield is about to break to the upside (of its 200 day moving average) - the 30 year yield already has. A large, Democratic-led February stimulus

package could be a catalyst for the 10 year US note to climb over 1% in the near term. (I would note that TLT peaked at $172 in early August and is now trading at $155)

* Short Homebuilders: The sector is negatively influenced by the rate of change in bond yields. With mortgage

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

9 Nov

@realmoney

Important (at least to me!)... on @realmoney
A Classic Sell On The News?
* It might have been!
* My actions today were as extreme (going from large net long in exposure to small net short) as in any one trading session in several years
* More on "Group Stink"
The comfort of

the crowd, herd and consensus, as I noted in this morning's opening missive,"The Rip Your Face Apart Rally and Mother of All Short Squeezes Will Likely Continue - 'Get It While You Can'" realmoney.thestreet.com/dougs-daily-di… often produces the foul odor of "Group Stink."

" It takes nothing

to join the crowd. It takes everything to stand alone, and to buy when others are selling, and sell when others are buying."

I was struck by the near unanimity on FIN TV - with the DJIA exploding by over 1600 points this morning - that the market now has a "green light" to

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

9 Nov

@realmoney

@realmoney
Today's Trades
* Moved to small net long in exposure!
* Reward v risk has deteriorated as today's market move borrows from future gains
* A classic sell on the news opportunity?

* Established a $SPY short hedge (between medium and large sized) at $363-$365

* Sold half of my $ GM long over $39/share - as reward v risk has changed from a month ago when shares were close to $30. (Twice our 'Trade of the Week' in last few weeks)
*$DIS Disney is +$15.80/share and I just halved the position to medium sized
* I have reduced $GS to medum

sized and $MS to small sized
* Covered small sized shorts in $ZM, $AAPL, $SQ and $CVNA
* Reduced value ETFs from very large to medium sized ($VTV and $VBR)
* Pressing my expanding homebuilder shorts
* Reduced $GLD to medium sized in premarket trading

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

9 Nov

@realmoney

On @realmoney
dougie kass • a few seconds ago
The vaccine news will likely take the markets to new highs. cnbc.com/2020/1...
My opening missive already was written and with editors earlier this morning.
But here are some addendums and updates:
1. Short Bonds ($TLT)

2. Look for a strong pivot away from growth and towards value today
3. Don't be fearful of buying lagging value stocks - groups like banks who are asset and rate sensitive (the magnitude of the rise could surprise many)
4. Don't be fearful of shorting market leading growth

stocks - $ZM, $CVNA, $SQ and $AAPL are my candidates
5. Amazon and Google should be laggards (I own both and have so for some time) $AMZN $GOOGL
6. A pairs trade - $SPY long/$QQQ short - should prosper

Dougie

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

8 Nov

@realmoney

From @realmoney on Thursday:
In my Diary and, again in yesterday's Bloomberg interview, I posited that stocks could rally spectacularly over the near term:
* With the perception, in part, of election uncertainty and the quicker spread of Covid-19, market participants have

been positioned defensively and cautiously.
* We have exited the weakest period of the calendar (August to October) and are entering a two month timeframe in which stocks are seasonally strong.
* We are ever closer to vaccine and therapeutic advances by the medical and

scientific communities.
* Should the market's rally continue, the evolving market structure change - in which the market is dominated by products and strategies that follow and chase price and price momentum - could catapult the markets higher rather swiftly. Remember, in risk

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