Important (at least to me!)... on @realmoney
A Classic Sell On The News?
* It might have been!
* My actions today were as extreme (going from large net long in exposure to small net short) as in any one trading session in several years
* More on "Group Stink"
The comfort of
the crowd, herd and consensus, as I noted in this morning's opening missive,"The Rip Your Face Apart Rally and Mother of All Short Squeezes Will Likely Continue - 'Get It While You Can'" realmoney.thestreet.com/dougs-daily-di… often produces the foul odor of "Group Stink."

" It takes nothing
to join the crowd. It takes everything to stand alone, and to buy when others are selling, and sell when others are buying."

I was struck by the near unanimity on FIN TV - with the DJIA exploding by over 1600 points this morning - that the market now has a "green light" to
head higher.

I didnt hear one skeptic or naysayer all day as traders and investors were intoxicated by the remarkable response to the vaccine.

Spyders traded -$10/share from the day's morning high and closed the day only +$4.40 higher while the QQQs were -$11 off of the
earlier high and closed -$6 from Friday's close.

I have often written that one must trade unemotionally - and today was a very good example of that credo.

There are a number of other important market tenets that have guided me over the years. 1 of the most important ones is
"Bull Markets are borne out of bad news and Bear Markets are borne out of good news."

Equities bottomed in the third week of March when fear of Covid -19 was at the extreme and businesses closed down.

By contrast, stocks may have have made a 2020 top coincident with the great
vaccine news announced early this morning.

For the first time in a long while the S&P (at this morning's height) traded at a near 20% premium to my calculus of "fair market value (3000-3100)."

Now, at the very least, it may be the time for corporate profits to grow into the
nearly unprecedented rise in prices and valuation since the March lows 1350 S&P handles ago.

Much more early Tuesday morning. $SPY $QQQ @WilfredFrost @jimcramer @saraeisen @tomkeene @business @SquawkCNBC @cnbcfastmoney @riskreversal @ScottWapnerCNBC @terranovajoe @guyadami

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Dougie Kass

Dougie Kass Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DougKass

11 Nov
To Josh Brown - Totally and respectfully disagree.
To begin with, banks have extraordinary low/zero cost deposit bases (trillion dollar gain y/o/y) that will increase in value dramatically as interest rates inevitably rise. The largest banks, like $JPM,
have spent many billions of dollars to advance their technological advantage. They are benefitting from market share gains from non US (esp. European banks) who are the "walking dead." Despite record provisioning and zero interest rates, the large banks will increase
their tangible net worth this year over 2019. Banks have large excess capital positions, historically high liquidity - in the fullness of time they will be able to buyback stock (accretively). Many more reasons - just touched the iceberg. @WilfredFrost @SaraEisen
Read 4 tweets
10 Nov
@realmoney
My Six Month Tactical Approach to the Markets Remains The Same

On October 22nd I outlined, "Some Investment Themes to Consider Over the Next Few Months."

Let's revisit the column:

As you map out your strategy for year-end and for 2021, here are some themes to
consider:

* Short Fixed Income: Bonds are among the most risky and least efficiently priced asset classes extant. The 10 year note yield is about to break to the upside (of its 200 day moving average) - the 30 year yield already has. A large, Democratic-led February stimulus
package could be a catalyst for the 10 year US note to climb over 1% in the near term. (I would note that TLT peaked at $172 in early August and is now trading at $155)

* Short Homebuilders: The sector is negatively influenced by the rate of change in bond yields. With mortgage
Read 9 tweets
10 Nov
Coming up on @realmoney

The Thunder in South Florida Yesterday Was Not the Bad Weather - It Was The Sound of the Market's Pivot From Growth To Value
* Yesterday may have represented a classic "sell on the good news"
* Monday was also an example why unemotional
trading/investing is so important
* Some stocks and sectors had a great year yesterday
* While many were cheering about the vaccine news, I was waiting to sell (with red tickets in hand)
* On Monday I moved from large net long to small net short - it was the biggest daily
swing in my aggregate net exposure in years
* Given the market's pivot, it may be time to consider a Berkshire Hathaway long @jimcramer @tomkeene @SquawkCNBC @CNBCFastMoney @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick @SquawkCNBC @CNBCFastMoney @RiskReversal @ScottWapnerCNBC
Read 4 tweets
9 Nov
@realmoney
Today's Trades
* Moved to small net long in exposure!
* Reward v risk has deteriorated as today's market move borrows from future gains
* A classic sell on the news opportunity?

* Established a $SPY short hedge (between medium and large sized) at $363-$365
* Sold half of my $ GM long over $39/share - as reward v risk has changed from a month ago when shares were close to $30. (Twice our 'Trade of the Week' in last few weeks)
*$DIS Disney is +$15.80/share and I just halved the position to medium sized
* I have reduced $GS to medum
sized and $MS to small sized
* Covered small sized shorts in $ZM, $AAPL, $SQ and $CVNA
* Reduced value ETFs from very large to medium sized ($VTV and $VBR)
* Pressing my expanding homebuilder shorts
* Reduced $GLD to medium sized in premarket trading
Read 4 tweets
9 Nov
On @realmoney
dougie kass • a few seconds ago
The vaccine news will likely take the markets to new highs. cnbc.com/2020/1...
My opening missive already was written and with editors earlier this morning.
But here are some addendums and updates:
1. Short Bonds ($TLT)
2. Look for a strong pivot away from growth and towards value today
3. Don't be fearful of buying lagging value stocks - groups like banks who are asset and rate sensitive (the magnitude of the rise could surprise many)
4. Don't be fearful of shorting market leading growth
stocks - $ZM, $CVNA, $SQ and $AAPL are my candidates
5. Amazon and Google should be laggards (I own both and have so for some time) $AMZN $GOOGL
6. A pairs trade - $SPY long/$QQQ short - should prosper

Dougie
Read 4 tweets
8 Nov
From @realmoney on Thursday:
In my Diary and, again in yesterday's Bloomberg interview, I posited that stocks could rally spectacularly over the near term:
* With the perception, in part, of election uncertainty and the quicker spread of Covid-19, market participants have
been positioned defensively and cautiously.
* We have exited the weakest period of the calendar (August to October) and are entering a two month timeframe in which stocks are seasonally strong.
* We are ever closer to vaccine and therapeutic advances by the medical and
scientific communities.
* Should the market's rally continue, the evolving market structure change - in which the market is dominated by products and strategies that follow and chase price and price momentum - could catapult the markets higher rather swiftly. Remember, in risk
Read 22 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!